Democratic Primaries

redqueen

(115,103 posts) Mon Jan 20, 2020, 06:09 PM Jan 2020

Only One Democrat Is Favored to Beat Trump in Head-to-Head Election Odds and It's ... Andrew Yang?!

Is the Yang Gang about to gang up on Donald Trump and send the President packing from the White House?

BetOnline is offering odds that insist Yang is the best bet if the Democrats want to dethrone Trump.

The sportsbook has released four prop wagers encompassing how four of the leading Democrat front runners for the 2020 Presidential Election odds would fare against Republican incumbent Trump.

Surprisingly, Yang, at odds of -150, is the only candidate favored to beat Trump in the election.
...
https://www.sportsbettingdime.com/amp/news/politics/democrats-favored-beat-trump-election-odds-andrew-yang/

This isn't surprising to me at all. He has practical, forward-thinking ideas, he has a positive message of unity, and he is talking about solutions that would help everyone. His status as an outsider who isn't a career politician also helps a lot.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided

12 replies

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Highlight:

Only One Democrat Is Favored to Beat Trump in Head-to-Head Election Odds and It's ... Andrew Yang?! (Original Post) redqueen Jan 2020 OP

Graphic to go with it redqueen Jan 2020 #1

If he can win the nomination, I'd be proud to vote for him sandensea Jan 2020 #2

Indeed! And that's what his supporters are hoping for? redqueen Jan 2020 #6

Can't wait 'til February! sandensea Jan 2020 #8

Same!! redqueen Jan 2020 #11

While I intend no disrespect I have to wonder at the math and what passes for election logic here. Ford_Prefect Jan 2020 #3

In sports betting, odds are given Mr.Bill Jan 2020 #5

So...Not science then? Sounds more like Advertising logic to me. Ford_Prefect Jan 2020 #10

Actually, it's both. Mr.Bill Jan 2020 #12

I dunno, I don't understand betting - other supporters were sharing this kinda stuff redqueen Jan 2020 #7

He's my number 2 Bradshaw3 Jan 2020 #4

Most definitely! redqueen Jan 2020 #9

redqueen

(115,103 posts)

1. Graphic to go with it

Reply to redqueen (Original post)

Mon Jan 20, 2020, 06:21 PM

Jan 2020

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided

sandensea

(21,643 posts)

2. If he can win the nomination, I'd be proud to vote for him

Reply to redqueen (Original post)

Mon Jan 20, 2020, 06:35 PM

Jan 2020

But you must admit that's a long shot at this point.

Of course though, that could change. Dark horses have been known to go all the way (Carter, Clinton, Obama...).

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

redqueen

(115,103 posts)

6. Indeed! And that's what his supporters are hoping for?

Reply to sandensea (Reply #2)

Mon Jan 20, 2020, 06:51 PM

Jan 2020

We'll see how it all shakes out.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided

sandensea

(21,643 posts)

8. Can't wait 'til February!

Reply to redqueen (Reply #6)

Mon Jan 20, 2020, 06:53 PM

Jan 2020

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

redqueen

(115,103 posts)

11. Same!!

Reply to sandensea (Reply #8)

Mon Jan 20, 2020, 07:04 PM

Jan 2020

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided

Ford_Prefect

(7,914 posts)

3. While I intend no disrespect I have to wonder at the math and what passes for election logic here.

Reply to redqueen (Original post)

Mon Jan 20, 2020, 06:36 PM

Jan 2020

I can recall several instances over the last 3 decades when the so-called oddsmakers not only missed the mark but changed their predictions up to and including election night. IMHO If gambling predictions were science we'd have fewer missed bets and more millionaires all around.

As with public opinion polling, it would help to understand what BetOnline's perspective depends upon in the way of questions asked and the relative value of the scored responses.

For instance, was there a method applied to factor interference in voting procedures by foreign and domestic agents? If so what was the probable value of that effect on voting numbers in contested areas of Florida, Georgia, Wisconsin, or Michigan, to name but a few likely situations.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

Mr.Bill

(24,311 posts)

5. In sports betting, odds are given

Reply to Ford_Prefect (Reply #3)

Mon Jan 20, 2020, 06:47 PM

Jan 2020

according to what incentive there needs to be to get as close to an equal amount of bets on each team. That way the sports book makes money no matter who wins, because they keep a small percentage of winning bets and keep all of losing bets. They are having to give those odds on Yang not because he is most likely to win, but because he is least likely to win.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

Ford_Prefect

(7,914 posts)

10. So...Not science then? Sounds more like Advertising logic to me.

Reply to Mr.Bill (Reply #5)

Mon Jan 20, 2020, 06:56 PM

Jan 2020

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

Mr.Bill

(24,311 posts)

12. Actually, it's both.

Reply to Ford_Prefect (Reply #10)

Mon Jan 20, 2020, 07:28 PM

Jan 2020

The science is looking at the polls. For a sports event, it's looking at team stats, injuries, etc.

The advertising is what numbers they have to put out there (the point spread in a football game) to entice an equal number of fans to bet on each team.

If I'm a 49er fan I would, of course like to bet on my favorite team. But f the sports book says they have to win by 24 points for me to win my bet, I may be enticed to bet on the Packers in the Superbowl.

Bottom line is anyone taking bets is not really in the business of predicting winners. They are in the business of making money by getting an equal number of people to bet on both sides.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden