Democratic Primaries

melman

(7,681 posts) Fri Jan 24, 2020, 08:27 PM Jan 2020

Bernie Sanders is climbing everywhere

With only 10 days until Iowans caucus, Sanders is seeing his poll numbers climb nationally and in the early states of Iowa and New Hampshire.

Nationally, Sanders is at his highest point since his post-announcement bump. Our CNN poll has him at 27% earlier this week. Most other polls don't have him nearly as high, though he seems to have crossed the 20% barrier. That's big news because it puts a hole in the theory that Sanders couldn't grow his support from the mid-teens he's generally had.

Sanders is now the clear alternative to former Vice President Joe Biden in the national polls. Biden, who is still holding in the upper 20s, has seen his margin over Sanders shrink. Other Democrats such as Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren and former South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg are stuck at 15% or below.

--
Sanders' rise seems to be occurring in a way that is unusual for a Biden alternative. Look at the recent polls, and you see Sanders is doing as well if not better among nonwhite compared to white voters. That means that if he is able to do well in the very white states of Iowa and New Hampshire, he has a better chance of capitalizing on that momentum as the contest heads to the more diverse states of Nevada and South Carolina.

--

Across all the pollsters who took a poll in Iowa in December or January and at least one previous poll, Sanders is up an average of five points from said previous poll. This includes our CNN/Des Moines Register/Mediacom poll which placed Sanders at 20% with no one in front of him. An average of CNN approved polls in January have Biden and Sanders tied at 21% and on top of the field.

---

Sanders also seems to be doing better in New Hampshire. A new MassInc Polling Group poll conducted for WBUR found Sanders at 29% among likely primary voters. That's up from 15% in December and gives him a 12 point advantage over his nearest competitor (Buttigieg). An examination of all the polling in the Granite State this month has Sanders ahead and the only candidate clearing 20%.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/01/24/politics/bernie-sanders-campaign-surging/index.html

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided

47 replies

= new reply since forum marked as read

Highlight:

Bernie Sanders is climbing everywhere (Original Post) melman Jan 2020 OP

Perhaps, but how is he doing in the polls? Certainly not "climbing". George II Jan 2020 #1

CNN says otherwise melman Jan 2020 #3

Dontcha know?! Up is down, black is white... and NOTHING good can ever be said about Bernie!! InAbLuEsTaTe Jan 2020 #16

This message was self-deleted by its author RandiFan1290 Jan 2020 #21

Under the Bernie Standard, Joe needs to declare every day that he'll campaign every day for Bernie! InAbLuEsTaTe Jan 2020 #29

53% of Sanders' supporters will not vote Democratic if Sanders is not the nominee Cary Jan 2020 #42

Exactly. Yes. Thank you. NurseJackie Jan 2020 #43

With friends like that, who needs enemies? Cary Jan 2020 #44

Message auto-removed Name removed Jan 2020 #46

That figure came from a National Emerson College poll: ehrnst Jan 2020 #47

To boost ratings, pollsters are providing networks bucolic_frolic Jan 2020 #2

Not if you stand on your head. A-Schwarzenegger Jan 2020 #4

I won't get into the other three states for now, but the Iowa polls say differently: George II Jan 2020 #5

"Makes one wonder just WHO is "surging", doesn't it?" melman Jan 2020 #9

lol NJCher Jan 2020 #10

I think everyone on this site that has been talking about polls over the last few months.... George II Jan 2020 #11

I think everyone who has been on this site any length of time knows melman Jan 2020 #14

Suit yourself. George II Jan 2020 #15

this is certainly going to be a problem for ppl that have hysterics . Kurt V. Jan 2020 #6

Sanders can not beat Trump because............ MRDAWG Jan 2020 #7

I don't think it's that clear cut NJCher Jan 2020 #12

"Sanders can not beat Trump" melman Jan 2020 #13

OOOOOPS!! InAbLuEsTaTe Jan 2020 #30

🙄nt helpisontheway Jan 2020 #8

Polls and poll averages. With links FOR everyone!! Thekaspervote Jan 2020 #17

He is climbing the peak of Rogan NCProgressive Jan 2020 #18

Ouch!! Thekaspervote Jan 2020 #20

Will Rebl2 Jan 2020 #19

Wow romachrome Jan 2020 #34

Well tell him to climb down Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin Jan 2020 #22

It's ok... revmclaren Jan 2020 #26

Bernie may be climbing everywhere but at DU. It seems that here the long knives are totodeinhere Jan 2020 #23

The opposite seems to be true. TwilightZone Jan 2020 #24

actually he's gone up a couple points even here A-Schwarzenegger Jan 2020 #28

LOL!! President Sanders will be MORE than just okay!! InAbLuEsTaTe Jan 2020 #31

Oh that's right you're undecided. UniteFightBack Jan 2020 #25

I need a serious answer: is he registered as a Democrat EveHammond13 Jan 2020 #27

This message was self-deleted by its author RandiFan1290 Jan 2020 #35

Yes, he even signed THE much ballyhooed loyalty oath. That made the news here. Autumn Jan 2020 #36

When you lead with strong issues like MFA and the GND, you lead the... JoeOtterbein Jan 2020 #32

Thank you for posting this Melman. CentralMass Jan 2020 #33

So is my cat. "Get down, Bobbie!" MineralMan Jan 2020 #37

Thanks for your input melman Jan 2020 #38

Hi, can you post a link to the polls cited in the article? ahoysrcsm Jan 2020 #39

Just go to the linked article melman Jan 2020 #40

Ah, ok then. ahoysrcsm Jan 2020 #41

people... myohmy2 Jan 2020 #45

George II

(67,782 posts)

1. Perhaps, but how is he doing in the polls? Certainly not "climbing".

Reply to melman (Original post)

Fri Jan 24, 2020, 08:31 PM

Jan 2020

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

melman

(7,681 posts)

3. CNN says otherwise

Reply to George II (Reply #1)

Fri Jan 24, 2020, 08:33 PM

Jan 2020

See linked article.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided

InAbLuEsTaTe

(24,122 posts)

16. Dontcha know?! Up is down, black is white... and NOTHING good can ever be said about Bernie!!

Reply to melman (Reply #3)

Fri Jan 24, 2020, 09:08 PM

Jan 2020

Bernie/Elizabeth or Elizabeth/Bernie 2020!!

Either way, they're stronger together & can't be bought!!
Jump on the Bernie Bandwagon & join the revolution!!

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided

Response to George II (Reply #1)

RandiFan1290 This message was self-deleted by its author.

InAbLuEsTaTe

(24,122 posts)

29. Under the Bernie Standard, Joe needs to declare every day that he'll campaign every day for Bernie!

Reply to RandiFan1290 (Reply #21)

Fri Jan 24, 2020, 10:24 PM

Jan 2020

Bernie/Elizabeth or Elizabeth/Bernie 2020!!

Either way, they're stronger together & can't be bought!!
Jump on the Bernie Bandwagon & join the revolution!!

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided

Cary

(11,746 posts)

42. 53% of Sanders' supporters will not vote Democratic if Sanders is not the nominee

Reply to RandiFan1290 (Reply #21)

Wed Jan 29, 2020, 06:42 PM

Jan 2020

I guess, like Sanders himself, most of his supporters aren't Democrats?

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

NurseJackie

(42,862 posts)

43. Exactly. Yes. Thank you.

Reply to Cary (Reply #42)

Wed Jan 29, 2020, 06:48 PM

Jan 2020

It's disgusting. Leaves a bad taste in my mouth.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

Cary

(11,746 posts)

44. With friends like that, who needs enemies?

Reply to NurseJackie (Reply #43)

Wed Jan 29, 2020, 06:53 PM

Jan 2020

Disgusting.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

Response to Cary (Reply #42)

Name removed Message auto-removed

ehrnst

(32,640 posts)

47. That figure came from a National Emerson College poll:

Reply to Name removed (Reply #46)

Wed Jan 29, 2020, 09:32 PM

Jan 2020

Only a small majority of Bernie Sanders voters say they will definitely support the eventual Democratic nominee at the 2020 election if the independent Vermont senator does not win the race, according to a poll.

The National Emerson College Poll of 1,128 registered voters between January 21 and January 23 found that 53 percent of Sanders supporters said "yes" when asked if they would support the Democratic nominee even if it is not their candidate.

Another 31 percent of Sanders supporters said it depends on who the nominee is and 16 percent flat-out said no. The poll, conducted via landline calls and an online panel, has a 2.8 percentage point margin of error.

https://www.newsweek.com/bernie-sanders-poll-warren-biden-2020-nominee-emerson-college-1483831

https://emersonpolling.reportablenews.com/pr/national-2020-biden-and-sanders-battle-in-two-way-race-for-democratic-nomination

You're welcome.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

bucolic_frolic

(43,166 posts)

2. To boost ratings, pollsters are providing networks

Reply to melman (Original post)

Fri Jan 24, 2020, 08:32 PM

Jan 2020

results viewed through rose-colored glasses. Nothing boosts ratings like a horse race, and nothing is better for network profitability than capturing a generation of 25-39 year old eyeballs.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

A-Schwarzenegger

(15,596 posts)

4. Not if you stand on your head.

Reply to melman (Original post)

Fri Jan 24, 2020, 08:38 PM

Jan 2020

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided

George II

(67,782 posts)

5. I won't get into the other three states for now, but the Iowa polls say differently:

Reply to melman (Original post)

Fri Jan 24, 2020, 08:39 PM

Jan 2020

Biden has gaines more than 7% in the last two weeks in Iowa, going from second place to a clear lead.

https://www.democraticunderground.com/1287443276

....according to RCP (538 isn't much different):

Jan 10 (2 weeks ago)

Biden 17.7, -3.7 behind the leader
Sanders 21.3
Warren 17
Buttigieg 21

Jan 17 (1 week ago)

Biden 20.7 +3.0 from a week ago, +0.3 lead
Sanders 20.3 -1.0 from a week ago
Warren 16.0 -1.0 from a week ago
Buttigieg 18.7 -2.3 from a week ago

Today

Biden 21.0 +3.3 from 2 weeks ago, +3.7 lead
Sanders 17.3 -4.0 from 2 weeks ago
Warren 16.7 -0.7 from 2 weeks ago
Buttigieg 16.3 -4.7 from 2 weeks ago

Makes one wonder just WHO is "surging", doesn't it?

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

melman

(7,681 posts)

9. "Makes one wonder just WHO is "surging", doesn't it?"

Reply to George II (Reply #5)

Fri Jan 24, 2020, 08:58 PM

Jan 2020

One might also wonder why there is no link provided.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided

NJCher

(35,675 posts)

10. lol

Reply to melman (Reply #9)

Fri Jan 24, 2020, 09:01 PM

Jan 2020

at least you get an answer that's relevant to your question. I don't even get that!

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided

George II

(67,782 posts)

11. I think everyone on this site that has been talking about polls over the last few months....

Reply to melman (Reply #9)

Fri Jan 24, 2020, 09:01 PM

Jan 2020

....knows how to find RCP.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

melman

(7,681 posts)

14. I think everyone who has been on this site any length of time knows

Reply to George II (Reply #11)

Fri Jan 24, 2020, 09:04 PM

Jan 2020

that when there's no link provided there is probably a reason.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided

George II

(67,782 posts)

15. Suit yourself.

Reply to melman (Reply #14)

Fri Jan 24, 2020, 09:07 PM

Jan 2020

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

Kurt V.

(5,624 posts)

6. this is certainly going to be a problem for ppl that have hysterics .

Reply to melman (Original post)

Fri Jan 24, 2020, 08:42 PM

Jan 2020

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided

MRDAWG

(501 posts)

7. Sanders can not beat Trump because............

Reply to melman (Original post)

Fri Jan 24, 2020, 08:47 PM

Jan 2020

I consider myself a Socialist. I am also a realist. I know for a Democrat to win they need ENTHUSIASTIC Afro-American support. Only Joe Biden has that. A poll I saw on MSNBC showed Biden far ahead with Black voters. When President Obama endorses him that support will be enthusiastic. Remember Obama endorsed Biden twice in 2008 and 2012.

Our Democratic nominee needs a majority of Independent support. Independents are not going to vote for someone on the far left. Sanders and Warren are far left. Trump supporters will not be able to label Biden a Socialist.

Yes, when only Democrats vote a far leftist can win the nomination. It will all be for nothing if we don't beat Trump.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

NJCher

(35,675 posts)

12. I don't think it's that clear cut

Reply to MRDAWG (Reply #7)

Fri Jan 24, 2020, 09:02 PM

Jan 2020

read this article, if you can get past the paywall at the NY Times.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/24/us/politics/democratic-party-unity-primary.html

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided

melman

(7,681 posts)

13. "Sanders can not beat Trump"

Reply to MRDAWG (Reply #7)

Fri Jan 24, 2020, 09:03 PM

Jan 2020

Polls say different.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_sanders-6250.html

and before anyone starts in about the one there that says he doesn't...

...note that the same poll has Trump beating Biden

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_biden-6247.html

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided

InAbLuEsTaTe

(24,122 posts)

30. OOOOOPS!!

Reply to melman (Reply #13)

Fri Jan 24, 2020, 10:26 PM

Jan 2020

Bernie/Elizabeth or Elizabeth/Bernie 2020!!

Either way, they're stronger together & can't be bought!!
Jump on the Bernie Bandwagon & join the revolution!!

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided

helpisontheway

(5,008 posts)

8. 🙄nt

Reply to melman (Original post)

Fri Jan 24, 2020, 08:50 PM

Jan 2020

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

Thekaspervote

(32,769 posts)

17. Polls and poll averages. With links FOR everyone!!

Reply to melman (Original post)

Fri Jan 24, 2020, 09:30 PM

Jan 2020

Emerson Ntl
Biden 26%
Sanders 20

https://projects.economist.com/democratic-primaries-2020/

RCP
Ntl avg as of today
Biden 28.9
Sanders 22.7

IA
Biden 21.7
Sanders 17.3

538 poll avg Ntl avg as today
Biden 27.5
Sanders 17.7

IA as of today
Biden 21.4
Sanders 18.0

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-d/iowa/

Another bit from Nate Silver 538 twitter

Biden is currently projected by FiveThirtyEight to win every single primary and caucus except for NH (Sanders), Massachusetts (Warren's home state), and Vermont (Sanders' home state).

And this from the hill.com

Sanders got 40% of the dem primary votes in 2016, he is polling half that now. Even if we’re to gain all of Warren’s support it would not give him the 2016 total.

And while we’re at it a current EC map
Biden 320
Sanders 230
Warren 210

Link to tweet

?s=21

Gee I feel sooo much better seeing all the actual numbers.. the truth of who’s in the lead!!

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

NCProgressive

(1,315 posts)

18. He is climbing the peak of Rogan

Reply to melman (Original post)

Fri Jan 24, 2020, 09:33 PM

Jan 2020

With its innate xenophobia, trans-phobia, homophobia, white supremacy and misogyny.

Keep climbin Bernie - you're going up the wrong peak.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

Thekaspervote

(32,769 posts)

20. Ouch!!

Reply to NCProgressive (Reply #18)

Fri Jan 24, 2020, 09:37 PM

Jan 2020

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

Rebl2

(13,510 posts)

19. Will

Reply to melman (Original post)

Fri Jan 24, 2020, 09:33 PM

Jan 2020

never vote for Sanders.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

romachrome

(12 posts)

34. Wow

Reply to Rebl2 (Reply #19)

Sat Jan 25, 2020, 01:18 AM

Jan 2020

I didn't expect to see that kind of flat statement on this website.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided

Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin

(107,996 posts)

22. Well tell him to climb down

Reply to melman (Original post)

Fri Jan 24, 2020, 09:51 PM

Jan 2020

Last edited Fri Jan 24, 2020, 10:30 PM - Edit history (1)

He's nearly 80 years old. He's going to hurt himself.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

revmclaren

(2,523 posts)

26. It's ok...

Reply to Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin (Reply #22)

Fri Jan 24, 2020, 10:18 PM

Jan 2020

He catches his naps when he can.

ONLY!!! 2020 and beyond.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

totodeinhere

(13,058 posts)

23. Bernie may be climbing everywhere but at DU. It seems that here the long knives are

Reply to melman (Original post)

Fri Jan 24, 2020, 09:53 PM

Jan 2020

out for him. But Bernie will be alright. The few hundred regular posters at DU may think they are important but they are less than a drop in the bucket in the total scheme of things. Go Bernie.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

TwilightZone

(25,471 posts)

24. The opposite seems to be true.

Reply to totodeinhere (Reply #23)

Fri Jan 24, 2020, 10:14 PM

Jan 2020

DU seems to be the only place, outside of his supporters' rhetoric, where he's climbing. As you noted, DU is not representative of the real world.

In the real world:

https://www.democraticunderground.com/1287444526#post17

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

A-Schwarzenegger

(15,596 posts)

28. actually he's gone up a couple points even here

Reply to totodeinhere (Reply #23)

Fri Jan 24, 2020, 10:23 PM

Jan 2020

since the last time i looked

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided

InAbLuEsTaTe

(24,122 posts)

31. LOL!! President Sanders will be MORE than just okay!!

Reply to totodeinhere (Reply #23)

Fri Jan 24, 2020, 10:28 PM

Jan 2020

Bernie/Elizabeth or Elizabeth/Bernie 2020!!

Either way, they're stronger together & can't be bought!!
Jump on the Bernie Bandwagon & join the revolution!!

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided

UniteFightBack

(8,231 posts)

25. Oh that's right you're undecided.

Reply to melman (Original post)

Fri Jan 24, 2020, 10:14 PM

Jan 2020

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

EveHammond13

(2,855 posts)

27. I need a serious answer: is he registered as a Democrat

Reply to melman (Original post)

Fri Jan 24, 2020, 10:23 PM

Jan 2020

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided

Response to EveHammond13 (Reply #27)

RandiFan1290 This message was self-deleted by its author.

Autumn

(45,091 posts)

36. Yes, he even signed THE much ballyhooed loyalty oath. That made the news here.

Reply to EveHammond13 (Reply #27)

Sat Jan 25, 2020, 11:28 AM

Jan 2020

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided

JoeOtterbein

(7,701 posts)

32. When you lead with strong issues like MFA and the GND, you lead the...

Reply to melman (Original post)

Fri Jan 24, 2020, 10:32 PM

Jan 2020

...vote!

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided

CentralMass

(15,265 posts)

33. Thank you for posting this Melman.

Reply to melman (Original post)

Sat Jan 25, 2020, 12:38 AM

Jan 2020

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided

MineralMan

(146,312 posts)

37. So is my cat. "Get down, Bobbie!"

Reply to melman (Original post)

Sat Jan 25, 2020, 11:51 AM

Jan 2020

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

melman

(7,681 posts)

38. Thanks for your input

Reply to MineralMan (Reply #37)

Sat Jan 25, 2020, 12:03 PM

Jan 2020

Illuminating as always.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided

ahoysrcsm

(787 posts)

39. Hi, can you post a link to the polls cited in the article?

Reply to melman (Original post)

Sun Jan 26, 2020, 07:34 PM

Jan 2020

Hi, can you post a link to the polls cited in the article?

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

melman

(7,681 posts)

40. Just go to the linked article

Reply to ahoysrcsm (Reply #39)

Sun Jan 26, 2020, 07:38 PM

Jan 2020

All the links are embedded.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided

ahoysrcsm

(787 posts)

41. Ah, ok then.

Reply to melman (Reply #40)

Sun Jan 26, 2020, 08:09 PM

Jan 2020

Can't provide links to backup your assertions. Typical hypocrite.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

myohmy2

(3,163 posts)

45. people...

Reply to melman (Original post)

Wed Jan 29, 2020, 08:58 PM

Jan 2020

...love Bernie and trust him to begin building the America we all want to see...

...an America in which everyone is welcome, treated fairly and allowed to prosper...

...look no further, Bernie is the anti-trump we've all been looking for...

...for everything dark, dangerous and sinister about trump, Bernie is the light...

...Bernie will bring us to a new place in America, a place we've all been longing for...

...Bernie can do it...

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

Reply to this discussion