Democratic Primaries

judeling

(1,086 posts) Sat Jan 25, 2020, 05:00 PM Jan 2020

Siena/NYT Poll just below the surface

With this poll it now looks like Bernie is going to win Iowa. The race will shift, and the order of finish will tell us how.

But if you look into the second choice crosstabs there are some clues.
First Bernie's second choice from Warren has dropped from 64% to 44%. That seems to show that the consolidation of the progressive wing will be a lot less robust then people are assuming.

Klobuchar has now overtaken Buttigieg in second choice. When you see that Buttigieg support is highly concentrated and that his second choice support is very weak there, It appears he will not be able to maximize those wins. That indicates he is likely to underperform his polls.

Warren and Klobuchar bot overperform in second choice. Both of their second choice is higher then their first that is not true of the other three. That indicates that both will overperform.

If I had to guess right now it would be Bernie, Biden, Warren, Buttigieg and Klobuchar. This will actually give Biden a good shot at NH.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided

3 replies

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Siena/NYT Poll just below the surface (Original Post) judeling Jan 2020 OP

Quite odd loveboy Jan 2020 #1

It seems simple to me. judeling Jan 2020 #2

Ok, yes that explains more loveboy Jan 2020 #3

loveboy

(44 posts)

1. Quite odd

Reply to judeling (Original post)

Sat Jan 25, 2020, 05:05 PM

Jan 2020

I don’t follow the logic, Bernie wins Iowa where is was underdog, then he turns around and loses NH where he is favorite? Seems unusual.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided

judeling

(1,086 posts)

2. It seems simple to me.

Reply to loveboy (Reply #1)

Sat Jan 25, 2020, 06:00 PM

Jan 2020

With Warren still in the top 3 his chances of additional consolidation are diminished. Meanwhile Buttigieg and Klobuchar will take hits and the moderate lane will consolidate more. Klobuchar may even drop out depending on her finish. AS I said Clues. The order of finish will play a big part. What I see right now is Buttigieg underperforming and Warren overperforming in Iowa that will drive the narrative. That will depress Buttigieg's NH vote and increase Warren's that actually leave Biden in a good place.
If Klobuchar overperforms even more then I expect that will hurt Biden and probably Buttigieg and Warren and put Sanders in a very good place.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided

loveboy

(44 posts)

3. Ok, yes that explains more

Reply to judeling (Reply #2)

Sat Jan 25, 2020, 06:08 PM

Jan 2020

Thx.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided

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