You took the words right out of my mouth!

I can relate.

That is significant, because Bernie has a track record of bringing those unlikely voters out! (IE Michigan 2016 closing a 30 point gap to win)

he is going to win. And the lean thing...I know Sanders thinks the right will help him out by voting in our primaries...but this vote is not reliable.

likely voters. It is the unlikely voters that will be putting him over the top, and the biggest reason he is a top contender in this race.

CA now a tie with Biden a few percentage of pts ahead

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-d/national/

The white vote remains fairly split.

That's going to have serious repercussions once we get to more diverse primary electorates.

and LGBTQ organizations are unlikely to support Sanders too.

asking to be on his show

CNN: Biden & Warren campaigns said they hadn't asked to appear on Rogan's show

https://www.democraticunderground.com/1287446665

I listened to see what it was like as I heard a disturbing bit walking by my son's door...I can't tell you how disgusting it is...and this guy is poisoning our kids...I am sure after the proud boy episode...they had new recruits. And I think he had them on more than once...he also had Alex Jones who spewed his sick fantasy about Sandy Hook... the guy sucks. I forbade my son to listen in the house...now he probably did elsewhere, But he heard a particularly sick podcast about Gay people...one of many...and told me that I was right and he would never listen again.My daughter his sister is gay. He understood what I said then... then we just had to deal with Stephen Lynch who's comedy involving special needs people was just awful...I still remember 'Special Fred' but I wish I didn't. He has 'crew' where he played World of Warcraft (WOW) with from Canada... really nice boys. I honestly think they had a good effect on him.

Luckily he grew out of this shit...I seriously worried I would be one of those liberal Moms (and I know several) who have boys who went to the dark side with some of these alt right wing groups and shitheads like Rogan who is alt right IMHO. I don't know what it is about boys. I have three daughters who had their own issues (especially the oldest where I sat in the principle's office from first grade on) but were never drawn to the sick shit on the internet from various groups. Rogan is spreading that sick toxic fake masculinity. Thank God DS didn't got to the dark side...very proud and love that kid to death, but boy he was a pain in the ass! He considered me a pain in the ass can you believe this Cha...hehe. I had all sorts of advice don't you know.

Yang as centrist. Isn't he? If you leave him out it is 48% centrist, 36% left. Or if you count him as left it is 48% centrist, 42% left. I am so conflicted this time around. I'm like african americans in that i want whomever can beat trump the most to win. But i so wish the USA would have single payer or medicare for all. Conflict, conflict, conflict. You Americans have a very tough decision to make. I'm with Biden because he is so likeable. We need someone who shines. Trump must be beat.

Go Joe go!!

The sample size is ridiculously small …….349 RV's.. That leads to quirky results ...Too be fair .. The CNN poll showing Bernie ahead of Biden by 3% was an outlier as well …. The truth is somewhere between this crappy poll and the CNN's crappy poll ….Best Guess of the real situation ? : Biden 28% Bernie 24% Warren 13% …. Here is a real statistic .. 1,400 people attended a Bernie rally in Ames, Iowa tonight ……..…...

this poll and doing everything they can to insult it.

Lol..

it is putting predictive powers into the wrong thing. "Likely voters" aren't the ones who are going to decide this election, and the most gung ho democrats aren't either. The election will be decided in one way or another by unlikely voters and lean-voters. Biden is leaning in the "lean Democrat" group by only 4% in this poll. This is significant because almost half of all states have open primaries. And in states that don't, there is a very rigorous voter registration drive to turn those lean voters into registered Democrats.

The sample size is not unusually small. There are several other factors that impact ALL polls:

1) The response rate - ie how many of the people sampled are actually reached has declined for decades. The assumption that people willing to speak to pollsters is the same as those in their demographic group that answer has always been an implicit assumption. When the response rate (after multiple calls) was 70 or 80 percent, this needed assumption was likely not an issue. Now, in a NYT daily podcast on their polling one comment was that only about 3% of the people sampled are reached. As a person who has designed some samples not involved with either politics or market research, I have worried for decades that as that response rate declines, it could create a bias of some sort.

2) The likely to vote model - you need this, but the assumptions you make will impact the results. Clearly assuming that this is without error is questionable - and it will not be a random, normally distributed error.

Given ALL the polls, it is clear that many people are undecided or could possibly change their minds at this point. Sanders has a very solid core and he has regained the momentum he had before his heart attack. Biden, who has the most establishment support. has been and still is the leader in national polls, but not to the degree that HRC was in a much smaller field. One could argue that people in the early states have both been paying more attention and may have actually seen the candidates and that the national polls are likely to fall in line with those of the early states.* Looking at past elections, anyone can find a reason to believe any result they want will happen. Not to mention, that things happen often having nothing to do with our candidates that change the playing field - advantaging some/disadvantaging others.

* After I wrote that paragraph, I was struck by the idea that the reason national elections might converge to the early state results is that the results in the early states impact later states and the national polling. Looking at past years, Kerry did start to top Iowa polls while being relatively low in national polls before Iowa: after Iowa he was suddenly ahead nationally.

For Iowa - https://www.realclearpolitics.com/Presidential_04/iowa_polls.html
For national polls - http://www.pollingreport.com/wh04dem.htm

Obama was about 20 points behind Clinton in national polls but pretty close in Iowa when he won Iowa - suddenly that was a much closer national race.
For Iowa - html://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/ia/iowa_democratic_caucus-208.html
For the national polls, scroll to near the bottom the caucus was 1/3 - http://pollingreport.com/wh08dem.htm )

In 2016, it was already clear in 2015, nationally as well as in the early states, even in 2015 that there was a split in the Democratic party. The Iowa caucus was February 1 and the NH primary was on February 9. Looking at the Iowa chart, the race became close in January. Scanning the national numbers, there is not the big shift like in 2004 and 2008 after Iowa and NH. (In fact, like in Iowa, Sanders surged in January staying far below HRC in January, 2016. (I don't remember what event happened in January 2016 - the email stuff exploded in March 2015 and the next few months)

For Iowa: https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/ia/iowa_democratic_presidential_caucus-3195.html
For National polls: http://pollingreport.com/wh16dem.htm

My conclusion has to be that Iowa CAN have an impact, especially if the patterns in Iowa leading up to the caucuses are different than those in the national media. The clearest is 2004 and likely reflects that the national media was interested in almost everybody but Kerry until he won Iowa. With Obama, it might be that the Iowa win motivated people who liked him but didn't think he was ready yet.

Especially when almost half the states have open primaries, and those that don't, have active registration drives to make those people registered Democrats.

As opposed to a sUrGe.