Democratic Primaries

floppyboo

(2,461 posts) Sun Jan 26, 2020, 11:30 AM Jan 2020

Question about RCP. Do they always just use reg. dem's for their #'s?

I just clicked on the latest ABC/Washington Post National Poll https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/biden-holds-steady-warren-slips-iowa-caucuses-approach/story?id=68518223&mc_cid=7672179d16&mc_eid=9430bf74bd and they have a 4 point spread for Biden/Bernie, but the#'s on RCP use Dem registered only - 9 point spread for Biden.

What's the correct # to look at? Have a missed a disclaimer by RCP on their reporting criterion?

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided

5 replies

= new reply since forum marked as read

Highlight:

Question about RCP. Do they always just use reg. dem's for their #'s? (Original Post) floppyboo Jan 2020 OP

Look at the "Sample" column. TwilightZone Jan 2020 #1

Thanks! floppyboo Jan 2020 #2

I think they tend to use what's considered the more accurate numbers. highplainsdem Jan 2020 #3

Btw, 538 will usually include multiple results from a poll if they report multiple results from highplainsdem Jan 2020 #4

I believe RCP uses LV when available. Drunken Irishman Jan 2020 #5

TwilightZone

(25,472 posts)

1. Look at the "Sample" column.

Reply to floppyboo (Original post)

Sun Jan 26, 2020, 11:33 AM

Jan 2020

That will tell you what each individual poll used. RV is registered voters, LV is likely voters, etc.

538 does the same thing.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

floppyboo

(2,461 posts)

2. Thanks!

Reply to TwilightZone (Reply #1)

Sun Jan 26, 2020, 11:35 AM

Jan 2020

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided

highplainsdem

(49,005 posts)

3. I think they tend to use what's considered the more accurate numbers.

Reply to floppyboo (Original post)

Sun Jan 26, 2020, 11:35 AM

Jan 2020

Likely voters the most accurate, registered voters next, all adults the least likely to be accurate because the least likely to vote.

And yeah, I know that irritates some people who back candidates who will supposedly motivate people who don't normally vote.

It misses the all-important magical rainbow unicorn vote, too.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

highplainsdem

(49,005 posts)

4. Btw, 538 will usually include multiple results from a poll if they report multiple results from

Reply to floppyboo (Original post)

Sun Jan 26, 2020, 11:37 AM

Jan 2020

likely, registered, and all adults.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

Drunken Irishman

(34,857 posts)

5. I believe RCP uses LV when available.

Reply to floppyboo (Original post)

Sun Jan 26, 2020, 12:11 PM

Jan 2020

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

Reply to this discussion