Democratic Primaries

Scurrilous

(38,687 posts) Sun Jan 26, 2020, 12:48 PM Jan 2020

YouGov Iowa: Bernie 26% Biden 25% 6 point swing from last which had Bernie up 7.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-d/iowa/

So much for this - which got wide play by a certain camp.

Bernie Sanders opens massive lead in Iowa: poll

https://nypost.com/2020/01/25/bernie-sanders-opens-massive-lead-in-iowa-poll/

Whose dancing now Briahna?

Link to tweet

Could be fake. Who knows.

Forget it Jake, it's the Internet.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

11 replies

= new reply since forum marked as read

Highlight:

YouGov Iowa: Bernie 26% Biden 25% 6 point swing from last which had Bernie up 7. (Original Post) Scurrilous Jan 2020 OP

The Last CBS News/ Battleground Tracker Iowa Poll ritapria Jan 2020 #1

Yep. Scurrilous Jan 2020 #2

Scurrilous, polling trends are really only useful when looking at two or more polls from the same... HerbChestnut Jan 2020 #3

So Bernie's lead was never massive as reported? Scurrilous Jan 2020 #4

I look at the averages RCP and 538 Thekaspervote Jan 2020 #6

Yeah. Scurrilous Jan 2020 #7

Read This ritapria Jan 2020 #5

Is that turning out to vote or sdfernando Jan 2020 #8

Do they say what turnout was in 2016? 300% from a very low number is still be a very low number.... George II Jan 2020 #11

So ready for this caucus and voting to start. Seems like forever! FloridaBlues Jan 2020 #9

It's real. George II Jan 2020 #10

ritapria

(1,812 posts)

1. The Last CBS News/ Battleground Tracker Iowa Poll

Reply to Scurrilous (Original post)

Sun Jan 26, 2020, 12:57 PM

Jan 2020

had it : Bernie 23% ..Biden 23% .. Buttigieg 22% …….. Bernie is up 3% from their last poll ….

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided

Scurrilous

(38,687 posts)

2. Yep.

Reply to ritapria (Reply #1)

Sun Jan 26, 2020, 12:59 PM

Jan 2020

Neck and neck coming down the stretch.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

HerbChestnut

(3,649 posts)

3. Scurrilous, polling trends are really only useful when looking at two or more polls from the same...

Reply to Scurrilous (Original post)

Sun Jan 26, 2020, 01:04 PM

Jan 2020

pollster. For example, if two different pollsters show the following:

Poll 1: Biden leading by 10 points
Poll 2: Bernie leading by 10 points

It doesn't mean the population they sampled had a massive change of heart over the course of that week, it just means that the two pollsters likely had different methodologies and variance came into play. However, if the same pollster releases two polls over the course of a month and the results are as follows:

Poll 1: Biden leading by 10 points
Poll 2: Biden leading by 3 points

Then you know it's likely Biden's lead really did shrink over that time period because those two polls used the same methodology.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided

Scurrilous

(38,687 posts)

4. So Bernie's lead was never massive as reported?

Reply to HerbChestnut (Reply #3)

Sun Jan 26, 2020, 01:14 PM

Jan 2020

OK. Because that last one had a 13 point swing. From Biden +6 to Bernie +7. People were touting it as a Sanders Surge. Confusing. Someone needs to tell this to the tabs.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

Thekaspervote

(32,778 posts)

6. I look at the averages RCP and 538

Reply to Scurrilous (Reply #4)

Sun Jan 26, 2020, 01:22 PM

Jan 2020

Neither candidate has been up by much.

538 does predict that Biden will win IA

More state predictions at the link

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-primary-forecast/

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

Scurrilous

(38,687 posts)

7. Yeah.

Reply to Thekaspervote (Reply #6)

Sun Jan 26, 2020, 02:04 PM

Jan 2020

I pay more attention to averages also.

I usually admonish people who tout latest but on this one I couldn't resist because the Sanders Surge thing was going on again.

Last week Sanders had a latest national go his way. Sanders 19% Biden 18%. The NY Times was touting it as 'Sanders Leads' even though Biden was up in average and had been since he entered the race.

Now the newest latest national has Biden 34% Sanders 22%. LOL

It's crazy.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

ritapria

(1,812 posts)

5. Read This

Reply to Scurrilous (Original post)

Sun Jan 26, 2020, 01:21 PM

Jan 2020

From Tufts University : "Exclusive Polling : Iowa Youth Poised for Historic Turnout " ….There could be a 300% increase in turnout amongst voters aged 18-29 over what happened in 2016 …………..300% increase !

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided