Bernie has an advantage in caucuses because he has the highest floor and the most hardcore voters, leaving a lot more Biden supporters to be pursuaded. Being a virtual tie this far from IA is not good for Biden winning IA. 538 or rcp will not bviously take that into account.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided

Demsrule86

(68,595 posts)

9. Not a dead heat actually. And this is the newest poll...suggest you look at the link.

Reply to Tiggeroshii (Reply #8)

Sun Jan 26, 2020, 07:54 PM

Jan 2020

"In the survey taken Thursday through Sunday, Biden was backed by 25% of likely Democratic caucusgoers, ahead of Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders at 19%; former South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg at 18%; Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren at 13%; and Minnesota Sen. Amy Klobuchar at 6%."

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

Tiggeroshii

(11,088 posts)

10. The averages have Biden up .7. Up from a .5 deficit yesterday

Reply to Demsrule86 (Reply #9)

Sun Jan 26, 2020, 07:55 PM

Jan 2020

Per 538. That's a dead heat.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided

Demsrule86

(68,595 posts)

11. Here is a piece from 538...he leads Sanders by 6...this is the latest poll.

Reply to Tiggeroshii (Reply #8)

Sun Jan 26, 2020, 08:00 PM

Jan 2020

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

Tiggeroshii

(11,088 posts)

13. That is not the average.

Reply to Demsrule86 (Reply #11)

Sun Jan 26, 2020, 08:05 PM

Jan 2020

The average is .7

Also the projection gives Bernie a 33% chance and Biden a 35% chance. Or aka a dead heat.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided

Tiggeroshii

(11,088 posts)

7. Oh this is IA

Reply to Skya Rhen (Original post)

Sun Jan 26, 2020, 07:12 PM

Jan 2020

Dead heat then

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided

Demsrule86

(68,595 posts)

12. It is not a dead heat...this poll is a brand new poll...and Biden is leading Sanders by 6.

Reply to Tiggeroshii (Reply #7)

Sun Jan 26, 2020, 08:01 PM

Jan 2020

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

Tiggeroshii

(11,088 posts)

14. The average is a dead heat

Reply to Demsrule86 (Reply #12)

Sun Jan 26, 2020, 08:09 PM

Jan 2020

Averages are more accurate, generally.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided

Demsrule86

(68,595 posts)

15. This is a brand new A- Poll...I really do think Biden wins Iowa or it is too close to matter.

Reply to Tiggeroshii (Reply #14)

Sun Jan 26, 2020, 08:26 PM

Jan 2020

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

Tiggeroshii

(11,088 posts)

16. It might be close.

Reply to Demsrule86 (Reply #15)

Sun Jan 26, 2020, 08:34 PM

Jan 2020

But as noted, advantages in caucuses usually go to those with the highest floor. I think either could lose by several points.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided

Tiggeroshii

(11,088 posts)

17. Also this is a day after an A+ poll with Bernie ahead by 7. And the same day a YouGov shows Bernie

Reply to Demsrule86 (Reply #15)

Sun Jan 26, 2020, 08:41 PM

Jan 2020

Up by 1. Yougov is at least A rated, I think. (Nvm it is b- rated)

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided

Demsrule86

(68,595 posts)

19. I don't know that a B- is that different than an A-

Reply to Tiggeroshii (Reply #17)

Sun Jan 26, 2020, 09:54 PM

Jan 2020

We shall see...voting starts soon.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

Tiggeroshii

(11,088 posts)

20. Agreed. Speculation will be over. For IA at least.

Reply to Demsrule86 (Reply #19)

Sun Jan 26, 2020, 09:55 PM

Jan 2020

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided

Cha

(297,323 posts)

18. KR!!!

Reply to Skya Rhen (Original post)

Sun Jan 26, 2020, 09:30 PM

Jan 2020

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

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