If it's Pete, I think Bernie still has a good chance. If it's Biden, that might be the ballgame. If Warren wins, I think that throws the whole election upside down.

Once we hit diverse states Sanders is done. He doesn't have much AA support and the Rogan thing is going to hurt him with them.

A lot depends on how Biden does before SC. The support Sanders has among African Americans is no longer insignificant. Except for Biden of course, no one else approaches Sander's current level of Black support. If Biden is seen to be in a tailspin after the first 3 contests (Iowa, NH and Nevada) that would scramble everything. Assuming of course that Sanders does well in those states himself.

footing. The attacks from the middle and media will intensify on Sanders at this point but I am not sure they will have any effect. It seems like the more Sanders is attacked the stronger he gets as it comes across as the establishment trying to protect themselves whether it's true or not. The average Joe seems to not trust all the piling on. Just like when they piled on Trump it just seemed to make him stronger. The people just don't seem to trust anyone right now.

..as he gets in California, Biden will get just as many.

perform well in California. It's an expensive TV market and their money gives them an edge here.

If they basically split the delegates, the winner will try to spin it as something significant, but it really won't be.

Ironically, Iowa might not mean much this cycle unless something somewhat expected happens.

Of course, it's a caucus, so the polls can't really reflect what goes on as far as the wheeling and dealing goes.

In 2016, Bernie won the caucuses here in Washington State, but got creamed in the (non-binding) state vote. We've since moved to a general vote system, as have a number of other states.

I expect that Bernie MAY do okay in Iowa, but if the results are a close race, he'll be in trouble. A loss in Iowa will knock him out of contention, especially if the loss is to Warren. My suspicion is that South Carolina will be the real bellwether - whoever wins it will almost certainly end up being the nominee.

To which I say, not bloody likely.

Iowa and NH. Kind of unfair to the rest of us/rest of the country to not really have a say in the candidate of their choice. Perhaps one day the primary process will be redone to more accurately reflect the wants and desires of more than just the population of two small states.

I wish it would be so, but he won't give up easily.

Too many white people. We'll never take it in the general. BUT. Too many black people for Democrats to sit out and expect to continue.

It’s a no brainer

Just keep scrolling it’s a long list

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-primary-forecast/iowa/

start campaigning in a state. Most people don't decide until a few days before they vote so these early polls from states way out are extremely unreliable. Most people polled now will give the name of the person they are most familiar with.

I think Sanders and his supporters will fight to the end,
win or lose.

After all, it's a 'revolution'.

In my humble opinion.

Seriously enough to be impeached. I like the idea of beating Trump twice over. It's more likely to stick. So who's in?