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Joe BidenCongratulations to our presumptive Democratic nominee, Joe Biden!
 

highplainsdem

(49,004 posts)
Wed Jan 29, 2020, 10:55 AM Jan 2020

538 just fixed a bug in their forecast model that had hurt Biden, so Biden now has 1,704 delegates

Twitter thread from Nate Silver starting here, full text below:






Hey folks, in the interests of full transparency:

We discovered and fixed a small bug in our primary model this morning. Specifically, our model was supposed to have accounted for home states/regions when projecting bounces, e.g. Buttigieg would get a smaller IA bounce...


…other things equal, since he's from the Midwest. We found this improved accuracy in estimating bounces historically.

However we had a sign reversed in our code 😳 , so instead of giving slightly *less* credit to a candidate from the region winning, it was giving slightly *more*.


This was modestly hurting Biden, who wasn't benefiting from home region effects as Buttigieg/Klobuchar in IA or Sanders/Warren in NH. With the fix, Biden's overall delegate majority chances improved from 41% to 45%, with the gains coming variously from the other candidates. FIN



538's forecast page:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-primary-forecast/


As mentioned in the thread title, Biden is now at 1,704 delegates.

Less than 300 away from the 1,990 needed to win.

Sanders has 1,279 delegates.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
24 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
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538 just fixed a bug in their forecast model that had hurt Biden, so Biden now has 1,704 delegates (Original Post) highplainsdem Jan 2020 OP
math..cant live with it and cant live without it... samnsara Jan 2020 #1
I was told squirecam Jan 2020 #15
I was shocked yesterday when those new numbers came out - the individual states didn't add up.... George II Jan 2020 #2
Sounds like the "Deep State" and "the Establishment" awesomerwb1 Jan 2020 #3
I hope you mean that sarcastically. Though we're almost certain to see some highplainsdem Jan 2020 #5
You must've missed the tin foil hat emoji. awesomerwb1 Jan 2020 #6
Sorry. highplainsdem Jan 2020 #9
Very good... Demsrule86 Jan 2020 #11
Funny but that crossed my mind too even if doubtful. LOL nt Quixote1818 Jan 2020 #23
The Aroma Of Truth In THe MOrning Me. Jan 2020 #4
Yes it is...it really is. Demsrule86 Jan 2020 #10
I thought that given the number of primaries Biden was slotted to win and also drop outs were Demsrule86 Jan 2020 #7
Is there a happy dance emoji? LakeArenal Jan 2020 #13
Automated analytics is tricky as hell to code Amishman Jan 2020 #8
K&R Really good news. And if Sanders thinks he can get supers to put him over the top when Biden is Demsrule86 Jan 2020 #12
I think projections regarding the full primary process are bogus at this point. honest.abe Jan 2020 #14
As of this morning, Biden also has three times as many endorsements from superdelegates as Sanders LongtimeAZDem Jan 2020 #16
Latest update: Biden 1720, Sanders 1286. That's +434 and only 270 from the magical 1990. George II Jan 2020 #17
KR Cha Jan 2020 #18
Looking good! oasis Jan 2020 #19
KICK R B Garr Jan 2020 #20
538's negative pattern, claiming for months that Biden was losing, Hortensis Jan 2020 #21
Looks presumptive. Scurrilous Jan 2020 #22
K&R Tarheel_Dem Jan 2020 #24
 

samnsara

(17,622 posts)
1. math..cant live with it and cant live without it...
Wed Jan 29, 2020, 10:58 AM
Jan 2020
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

squirecam

(2,706 posts)
15. I was told
Wed Jan 29, 2020, 01:30 PM
Jan 2020

That there would be no math.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

George II

(67,782 posts)
2. I was shocked yesterday when those new numbers came out - the individual states didn't add up....
Wed Jan 29, 2020, 11:02 AM
Jan 2020

Glad they corrected it.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

awesomerwb1

(4,268 posts)
3. Sounds like the "Deep State" and "the Establishment"
Wed Jan 29, 2020, 11:17 AM
Jan 2020

gave the 538 people a call.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

highplainsdem

(49,004 posts)
5. I hope you mean that sarcastically. Though we're almost certain to see some
Wed Jan 29, 2020, 11:20 AM
Jan 2020

conspiracy theories about this, especially on Twitter.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

awesomerwb1

(4,268 posts)
6. You must've missed the tin foil hat emoji.
Wed Jan 29, 2020, 11:23 AM
Jan 2020
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

Quixote1818

(28,946 posts)
23. Funny but that crossed my mind too even if doubtful. LOL nt
Thu Jan 30, 2020, 02:01 AM
Jan 2020
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

Me.

(35,454 posts)
4. The Aroma Of Truth In THe MOrning
Wed Jan 29, 2020, 11:18 AM
Jan 2020

is better than coffee

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

Demsrule86

(68,586 posts)
10. Yes it is...it really is.
Wed Jan 29, 2020, 11:28 AM
Jan 2020
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

Demsrule86

(68,586 posts)
7. I thought that given the number of primaries Biden was slotted to win and also drop outs were
Wed Jan 29, 2020, 11:27 AM
Jan 2020

expected that the numbers seemed off but it is freaking 538...this is going to cause great sadness among some of our DU brethren...we must show great compassion today... or not.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

LakeArenal

(28,820 posts)
13. Is there a happy dance emoji?
Wed Jan 29, 2020, 11:40 AM
Jan 2020
close enough!
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

Amishman

(5,557 posts)
8. Automated analytics is tricky as hell to code
Wed Jan 29, 2020, 11:27 AM
Jan 2020

When I worked on an insurance automated underwriting system, we had subtle code errors go a year plus before being caught. One of the doozies is there was a specific combination of minor conditions which would cause it to skip the logic branch that evaluated anything cancer related.

Code is hard

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

Demsrule86

(68,586 posts)
12. K&R Really good news. And if Sanders thinks he can get supers to put him over the top when Biden is
Wed Jan 29, 2020, 11:33 AM
Jan 2020

the clear winner...I have a bridge in Brooklyn...you can get it real cheap. And my thinking people are just stating to pay attention and clearly they want Trump out and Biden can do it.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

honest.abe

(8,678 posts)
14. I think projections regarding the full primary process are bogus at this point.
Wed Jan 29, 2020, 11:45 AM
Jan 2020

There will be tremendous affects on downstream stream primaries from earlier primaries which are impossible to predict at this point no matter how clever your algorithm.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

LongtimeAZDem

(4,494 posts)
16. As of this morning, Biden also has three times as many endorsements from superdelegates as Sanders
Wed Jan 29, 2020, 01:35 PM
Jan 2020
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

George II

(67,782 posts)
17. Latest update: Biden 1720, Sanders 1286. That's +434 and only 270 from the magical 1990.
Wed Jan 29, 2020, 06:00 PM
Jan 2020
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

Hortensis

(58,785 posts)
21. 538's negative pattern, claiming for months that Biden was losing,
Wed Jan 29, 2020, 07:14 PM
Jan 2020

makes me profoundly distrust them. Similar to the NYT's sabotaging slant. Wonder how long their "small bug" bugged before they felt a need to fix it. And what caused that need.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
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