Democratic Primaries
Related: About this forum538 just fixed a bug in their forecast model that had hurt Biden, so Biden now has 1,704 delegates
Twitter thread from Nate Silver starting here, full text below:
Link to tweet
We discovered and fixed a small bug in our primary model this morning. Specifically, our model was supposed to have accounted for home states/regions when projecting bounces, e.g. Buttigieg would get a smaller IA bounce...
other things equal, since he's from the Midwest. We found this improved accuracy in estimating bounces historically.
However we had a sign reversed in our code 😳 , so instead of giving slightly *less* credit to a candidate from the region winning, it was giving slightly *more*.
This was modestly hurting Biden, who wasn't benefiting from home region effects as Buttigieg/Klobuchar in IA or Sanders/Warren in NH. With the fix, Biden's overall delegate majority chances improved from 41% to 45%, with the gains coming variously from the other candidates. FIN
538's forecast page:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-primary-forecast/
As mentioned in the thread title, Biden is now at 1,704 delegates.
Less than 300 away from the 1,990 needed to win.
Sanders has 1,279 delegates.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
samnsara
(17,622 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
squirecam
(2,706 posts)That there would be no math.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
George II
(67,782 posts)Glad they corrected it.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
awesomerwb1
(4,268 posts)gave the 538 people a call.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
highplainsdem
(49,004 posts)conspiracy theories about this, especially on Twitter.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
awesomerwb1
(4,268 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
highplainsdem
(49,004 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Demsrule86
(68,586 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Quixote1818
(28,946 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Me.
(35,454 posts)is better than coffee
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Demsrule86
(68,586 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Demsrule86
(68,586 posts)expected that the numbers seemed off but it is freaking 538...this is going to cause great sadness among some of our DU brethren...we must show great compassion today... or not.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
LakeArenal
(28,820 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Amishman
(5,557 posts)When I worked on an insurance automated underwriting system, we had subtle code errors go a year plus before being caught. One of the doozies is there was a specific combination of minor conditions which would cause it to skip the logic branch that evaluated anything cancer related.
Code is hard
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Demsrule86
(68,586 posts)the clear winner...I have a bridge in Brooklyn...you can get it real cheap. And my thinking people are just stating to pay attention and clearly they want Trump out and Biden can do it.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
honest.abe
(8,678 posts)There will be tremendous affects on downstream stream primaries from earlier primaries which are impossible to predict at this point no matter how clever your algorithm.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
LongtimeAZDem
(4,494 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
George II
(67,782 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Cha
(297,317 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
oasis
(49,389 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
R B Garr
(16,954 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Hortensis
(58,785 posts)makes me profoundly distrust them. Similar to the NYT's sabotaging slant. Wonder how long their "small bug" bugged before they felt a need to fix it. And what caused that need.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Scurrilous
(38,687 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Tarheel_Dem
(31,235 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden