Democratic Primaries

brooklynite

(94,598 posts) Wed Jan 29, 2020, 11:30 AM Jan 2020

Comparison of the Monmouth (Biden Leads) and NYT/Siena (Sanders Leads) polls

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If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

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Comparison of the Monmouth (Biden Leads) and NYT/Siena (Sanders Leads) polls (Original Post) brooklynite Jan 2020 OP

Interesting, and corroborates what I've seen elsewhere about this kind of distinction in polls. DanTex Jan 2020 #1

Option 1: Sanders voters will shake up CW. Option 2: Sanders supporters don't vote brooklynite Jan 2020 #2

DanTex

(20,709 posts)

1. Interesting, and corroborates what I've seen elsewhere about this kind of distinction in polls.

Reply to brooklynite (Original post)

Wed Jan 29, 2020, 11:36 AM

Jan 2020

Polls that rely more on turnout models to predict who will show up tend to favor Biden more. Polls that rely more on asking people whether they intend to caucus tend to favor Bernie more.

It's anyone's guess whether using a turnout model or just asking people if they intend to caucus is a better way to get a sample of actual caucus-goers. But that does explain some of the poll variation.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided

brooklynite

(94,598 posts)

2. Option 1: Sanders voters will shake up CW. Option 2: Sanders supporters don't vote

Reply to DanTex (Reply #1)

Wed Jan 29, 2020, 11:46 AM

Jan 2020

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

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