Right now I'd Bet Sanders wins the Delegates and Klobuchar to win the narrative.

...of delegates, give or take one or two. Same thing for New Hampshire and Nevada - after those three they'll be close to equal.

South Carolina is where Biden begins to open up a clear lead.

It goes multiple rounds, with supporters of candidates that are below the viability threshhold switching to a candidate who does.

I expect many of those responding to polls for Mayor Pete, Klobushar, and Steyer to swing to Biden as the caucus progresses.

I can see Sanders winning the initial count, then as the less popular candidates are eliminated, they move to Biden and it gives him the lead at the end of the night.

of realignment this year.

I expect a lot less move to Biden then you are building in.

... that I'm in a state with a primary voting method.

The caucus sounds like a big pain.

It will probably be decided long after I'm asleep for the night.



Or, do they have an "absentee caucus" method? Maybe that would be ok.