Ok

You don't think a net 17-point swing in favor of Bernie can be called a "surge"?

as it's been consistently used to describe Bernie's net gains of 0% as well.

So forgive us, we the un-evolved, for being skeptical and dismissive of its usage as an absolute in here and now.

There have only been a few polls in TX, the last was a c rated poll in December.

You can't cherry pick polls and have any credibility. They don't work that way. Look at iowa, which for some reason is heavily polled. Day to day there are 15 point swings. They can't all be right.

.

You can track results from the same pollster over time. The one posted in the OP showed changes from the previous poll taken in September. Same pollster, same methodology, two very different results. You're right about polling swings in Iowa, but those "swings" are a result of polls coming from different pollsters using different methodologies.

Btw, no need for the condescending personal snipe at the end.

They aren't even in the same universe. And until you look at the tabs, you don't know if they changed anything in the polling mechanics.

Outside of Austin, bernie just isn't popular there. I work for a company headquartered there, and bernie is a joke among people living there.

Just don't take the polls too seriously. Bernie is spending money there because he is in a box and can't break out. He is either way behind or at best tied in the major states, and his delegate count projection is pitiful.

And are you sure the people you talk to are representative of the Texas electorate?

It’s still all about delegates

Let's wait until a few states actually vote before talking about delegates.

That explains why the Sanders campaign is investing heavily there. What a statement that would be if Texas, of all places, votes for a progressive agenda!

vote for him in the Primary because they think Trump can beat him in a general.

I call it "Closer to primary season"

This race is going to be close. There are people firmly in every camp. Polls are going to change.

support probably less AA support after Rogan. Welcome to DU.

Good to be here.

And probably not. Hes only slowly gained more AA support. It is what it is though. I listen to Rogan a lot and he has had thousands of guests. He says stupid shit from time to time but hes far from a terrible human being as DU would so strongly suggest.

Hes actually a decent person who offers perspective on many different topics.

Gay because of molestation as children and are likely to molest children as well. I posted a video of it...sorry...he also said unspeakable things about AA and women.

And this poll has no 538 rating. Texas is closer to California demographics than SC, so it is likely he is not doing as poorly as older polls suggested.

CA

trending blue...isn't the legislature close to being Democratic?

I have faith that it will! But yeah, their shifting demographics to being more diverse is I think helping the political shift as well. I mentioned the somewhat similarities because I think that is why 538 doesn't project Biden exactly blowing out Sanders in Texas like he is in SC. Part of their projection is based on polling from other states with similar makeup for states that don't have a lot of polling. I'm just kinda shooting in the dark though.

analysis. I just want it to be like Virginia...one night we are watching the returns...and boom Texas goes for the Democrats...like a kid waiting for Christmas. I feel like that about Georgia too. I used to live there and the best thing in the world was the night when a Democrat won Gingrich's old seat-Lucy McBath who's son was viciously murdered-Jordan Davis. That SOB Gingrich was my Congressman when I lived there. Karma bit the GOP in the butt with that one.

67 of the 150 seats in the House are Democratic--there were a lot of moderate Democrats that won in the mid-terms. The Senate has 12 out of 31 seats for Democrats and is expected to remain in Republican control after the 2020 elections.

There are a lot of U.S. House seats that are being targeted this year as possible Democratic pickups, but I've become accustomed to a lot of hype during the past twenty years that Texas would flip to blue and have been disappointed repeatedly. I reviewed the crosstabs on the poll and commented below as to whether I find it credible.

what "surges" up must "surge" down.

Thanks for the thread Hassin Bin Sober.

the group that Bernie is strongest with is the 18-29 age group which is also the least likely to show up to vote. On page 20 of the crosstabs it inquires about the Texas Senate race and shows that Democratic Socialist Sema Hernandez ahead for the 18-29 age group. Hernandez lost badly to Beto O'Rourke in the Democratic primary in 2018. While I find the data interesting, I don't find it credible.

While I've noted some organizational meetings for Bernie online, I have not seen any indication of support for Bernie (campaign signs, bumper stickers, etc.) beyond one college student wearing a Bernie T-shirt at homecoming three months ago.

The Texas Lyceum poll also doesn't have a reputation for accuracy. In the 2016 general election, the survey among registered voters showed Clinton at 39% and Trump at 35%.

If I was a gambler, I wouldn't consider this poll as a guide to place my bet.

I figured Biden woulda been up by 25 pts and maybe Sanders closes to within 10 a week out, but 2 pts this far out is shocking and I bet it has alot to do with aoc and the huge latino voting block in Texas.

Not sure a firewall exists in this cycle.