Democratic Primaries
Related: About this forumA few more people believing a progressive can win, and a progressive will win.
The progressives Warren and Bernie combined for about 45% of the vote in Iowa. This mirrors the approximately 45% that Bernie got in 2016. When you look at polls, you see that the candidates that people agree with most on policy are the progressives. Still, in order to get an outright majority as opposed to a plurality, they need a few more votes.
The centrists are getting lots of votes from people who like progressive policies but don't think progressives are electable. Sure, there are some Dem voters who favor centrist policies, but without the electability voters, the centrists are done, because the centrist policies favored by big donors and consultants aren't as popular with Dem voters.
You can tell this by the ways centrist pundits try to make their case. They don't say that Single Payer would turn us into Venezuela, because people aren't dumb and can look at (say) Canada and see that it's not Venezuela. Instead they say that progressive policies would turn away moderates, so we need to settle for centrism.
And this sticks with some people, in part because the centrists have a lot of money to spend, in part because the media like MSNBC or WP basically say McGovern! over and over again all day. Not that it's a good argument, but it's a matter of repetition. If instead of 1972, all those same pundits would spend all their time reminding voters that we ran a centrist just four years ago and lost, then it would all be different.
I don't know how it will turn out, but this is where it will break one way or the other. I have a feeling a lot of Dems are sick of being told that we can't be FDR Dems anymore. If five or ten percent of Dems come around to see that "the only thing we have to fear is fear itself," the progressives win.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
George II
(67,782 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin
(108,300 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
OneMoreCupOfCoffee
(314 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
DanTex
(20,709 posts)then we get a progressive. A lot of people vote for centrists because of perceived electability, not because they support centrist policies. A small chunk of those coming around is all it takes.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
George II
(67,782 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
DanTex
(20,709 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
George II
(67,782 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Demsrule86
(68,715 posts)might want to read up on McGovern...horrible loss...lost 49 of 50 states...
"All the while, the Democratic Party became increasingly comfortable embracing hard-left positionspushed, in large part, by the same forces demanding a change to the nomination process. By the time of the 1972 Democratic National Convention, the partys platform was perhaps further left than it had ever been, calling for, among other planks, a decent job for every American and income supports for those out of work, as well as a universal single-payer health care system.
The partys presidential nominee would be the same man whod been tapped to overhaul the nominating process: George McGovernwhose candidacy was a backlash against 1968 and the old Democratic machine politics, says University of Minnesota political scientist Lawrence Jacobs."
https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2017/10/09/democrats-mcgovern-1972-trump-nixon-2020-215687
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
DanTex
(20,709 posts)The same kind of highly qualified centrist, firmly "establishment," part of the Obama administration, with a lot of the same positions in the past including on IWR and NAFTA. Against the same guy we have to beat this time around.
And all the Washington Post people crying "McGovern!" were sure she was going to win.
There's another electability argument that centers around bringing out the base and new voters with bold progressive policies that excite people.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
Demsrule86
(68,715 posts)We run left we lose...those of you who think Trump will be easy to knock off are wrong.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
LanternWaste
(37,748 posts)Allegations and bumper stickers ain't gonna get the votes.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Demsrule86
(68,715 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
dware
(12,449 posts)The US is still by far a center to center left country, whereas your man BS is a far left socialist who is using the Democratic Party to further his ambitions.
If, and I truly think it's a reach, he becomes our candidate, then prepare yourself for another 4 years of the Mango Menace and the possible loss of the House and the retention of the Senate by the repigs.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Demsrule86
(68,715 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
dware
(12,449 posts)not only would he be annihilated in the GE, but he could also lose the House to the repigs.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Demsrule86
(68,715 posts)The Left thinks everyone hates Trump as much as they do... but he has higher poll numbers than Obama did in 12. He is likely to win...and if we run left, we lose 35 states, the house and any chance at the Senate.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
dware
(12,449 posts)It just floors me that people can't seem to see or understand this.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Demsrule86
(68,715 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
awesomerwb1
(4,268 posts)But I Beeeeliiiieeeeveee I will see the one Sanders rides to work every day. The one that poops billion$ to pay for all the free stuff he's promising.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
BlueIdaho
(13,582 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
OneMoreCupOfCoffee
(314 posts)smear of being called "centrists." More "plausibly deniable" that calling them neoliberals or corporatists, I suppose.
Nearly all the liberals you insult in this fashion have much more impressive records of progressive accomplishments than the junior Senator (I) from Vermont.
And they have much more in common with FDR and the liberal traditions of our party than he does as well.
FDR was not affiliated with the Socialist Workers Party, just for your information.
FDR was proud to be a liberal Democrat. Same here.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
OneMoreCupOfCoffee
(314 posts)don't seem to have Warren on Team Red (Socialist) but on Team Blue (Liberals).
Team Red only got about 26% of the vote. Team Blue 74%.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
jcmaine72
(1,773 posts)Looks like someone's going to bed hungry tonight.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
OneMoreCupOfCoffee
(314 posts)Go liberals!!!
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
krissey
(1,205 posts)of the word progressive. I think most of our Dems are progressive and do not think just the far left owns the word.
But, I do not think little p progressive is all Warrens base. I think Warren has a lot of the Clinton support that are not backing Biden at this point. I think it is wrong to combine the numbers of Warren and Sanders and assume they are the same voter.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
comradebillyboy
(10,178 posts)surely happen.
If 50 million people say a foolish thing, it is still a foolish thing.
― Anatole France
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
MineralMan
(146,338 posts)At least they are unless your definition of that word is so narrow that only one person fits it.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
ehrnst
(32,640 posts)So there's that.
Bernie seems to do better when the actual votes aren't counted, but a limited number of people make the decision for everyone in the state, and a small group of hyper-enthusiastic and overbearing people can wear down others.
Frankly, caucuses are the least democratic of systems for a primary.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Uncle Joe
(58,456 posts)Thanks for the thread DanTex.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
redqueen
(115,103 posts)I'd love single payer. It's not happening. Voters don't like it, and Congress won't pass it.
I don't like the FJG. It's going to be hugely expensive and I don't see how it's even workable.
I don't like the wealth tax. It's expensive, hard to implement, and easy to dodge.
I don't like blanket forgiveness for college debt.
I don't like free 4-year college for all.
I'm far left but these two just don't seem grounded in reality. I don't think they can beat Trump, either.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided