Democratic Primaries
Related: About this forumOdds makers give Sanders a enormous 10 pt bump after Iowa acording to rcp avg
Sanders has gone from being a 9 pt underdog on January 22 to being a 18.6 favorite on Feb. 4th with a 10 pt rise from the 3rd to the 4th
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/elections/betting_odds/democratic_2020_nomination/
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
RandySF
(59,413 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
lapfog_1
(29,228 posts)in the general?
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
bluewater
(5,376 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
lapfog_1
(29,228 posts)and generally those are national poll averages... we need to know about swing states and the EC... otherwise it will be a repeat of 2016.
Even the fading Warren beats Trump by more than Sanders.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
bluewater
(5,376 posts)And talk about fading...
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/biden-slump-in-iowa-may-signal-bigger-campaign-woes/ar-BBZFfDs
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/04/biden-reassures-donors-he-will-win-nevada-south-carolina-after-iowa-caucus.html
https://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/newspolitics/big-victory-for-buttigieg-big-trouble-for-biden-based-on-latest-iowa-results/ar-BBZFmYT?li=AAggNb9
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
lapfog_1
(29,228 posts)average 5.4
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_sanders-6250.html
average 3.7
With the margins so thin... we really need the insurance.
And some polls show Trump beating Sanders.
And, again, these are nationwide polls, what about the EC polling in just those states that are swing states. I don't really care how many millions more CA voter vote blue... their (my) votes don't count.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
bluewater
(5,376 posts)Time will tell.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
lapfog_1
(29,228 posts)The same could be asked of any candidate.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
bluewater
(5,376 posts)I have a preferred candidate, but I try to stay in touch with reality.
To be honest, many people are so used to Joe doing well in the Polls, that they ignore information that shows him doing less and less well.
I try not to do that when it comes to Warren.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
DanTex
(20,709 posts)Biden has a 47% chance. Bloomberg 59%. Pete 53%.
You can calculate that by dividing the overall chances of becoming president by the chances of winning the nom, since the nom is a precondition for being president. So, for example, Bernie is at 43 for nomination, and 26 for president, and we get 26/43 = 60.465...%
These numbers jump around a bit with trading noise, but it's been pretty consistent that Bernie has been the most electable with oddsmakers for the last month or so.
https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/3633/Who-will-win-the-2020-Democratic-presidential-nomination
https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/3698/Who-will-win-the-2020-US-presidential-election
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
DanTex
(20,709 posts)Looks right now like Bernie is the favorite at 40, and Pete/Joe/Mike in the second tier in the 15-20 range.
I think, ironically, having Pete do so well may have actually helped Bernie's odds because it increases the chances that those three candidates will split the centrist vote all the way to the convention.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
Zeus69
(391 posts)But so much changes in so little time. It was several months ago that Elizabeth Warren had + 35 odds against a second place Biden. Obviously, that faded quickly.
If South Carolina had been the first vote in the primary cycle, we wouldnt be having this conversation. So I still believe things are fluid. If Biden flames out and no one steps up to absorb his support base, then Sanders it shall be.
If that happens, Ill vote for Sanders but Trump will get re-elected.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden