It doesn't matter who wins the democratic primary. It simply doesn't.

2008 was a referendum on GWB. GWB's best friend John McCain was the republican candidate, they campaigned heavily together and there were jokes in the media how a victory for McCain would effectively mean a 3rd term for GWB.

In the end, the theme of the 2008 election was "anybody-but-Bush".



2016 was a referendum on Hillary Clinton. She was attacked as the corrupt establishment from left-wingers like the Bernie Bros while Trump crushed the republican primary with his anti-DC message. (Which was misunderstood to be an anti-establishment message. When Trump said "drain the swamp" he NEVER meant getting rid of corruption, even though some voters misunderstood it that way. He ALWAYS meant getting rid of government regulations.)

In the end, the theme of the 2016 election was "anybody-but-Clinton".



And here we are in 2020. Trump has taken over the republican party. No Republican can gain profile without associating himself with Trump. There is no moderation left within the GOP. There is nothing left but Trump. Any race with a Republican automatically becomes all about Trump.

It doesn't matter which 2020 candidate has the better plan to solve America's problems. Trump has finished the GOP's long treck of transforming itself into a party no longer restrained by things like modesty, respect, tradition, facts, patriotism. The Republican Party is no longer interested in governing. It's all about hype and outrage and revenge and personality-cult.

In the end, the theme of the 2020 election will be "anybody-but-Trump".

The GOP no longer campaigns on policies. They don't care about that anymore.



That's why the theme of 2020 will be "Trump vs Not-Trump".

And that's why it ultimately doesn't matter which Democrat will be on the ballot.

It simply doesn't.