Not sure if this belongs here but, from Political, a good read

I liked this article as soon as i read this:
"Bitecofer has a nickname for this view. She calls it, with disdain, the “Chuck Todd theory of American politics”: "

A snip from the article.
"Unlike forecasters like FiveThirtyEight’s Nate Silver, who believe that candidates seen as too ideologically extreme pay a political cost, Bitecofer doesn’t see much of a downside to a candidate like Bernie Sanders. But she doesn’t see much of an upside either, since ideology isn’t as big a motivator as identity, and since Sanders did not in fact bring hordes of new voters to the polls in 2016. (Overall turnout in the 2016 primaries was down compared with 2008, when Barack Obama led a surge in the youth vote. In 2016, Sanders just did remarkably well among the young as Clinton tanked.) There is some risk to nominating Joe Biden, who could be seen as a candidate of the status quo against a disrupter like Trump, but either way, the key will be to do their version of what Trump does to them every day: make the prospect of four more years of Republican rule seem like a threat to the Republic, one that could risk everything Democratic-leaning voters hold dear."
Link to this lengthy piece.
https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/02/06/rachel-bitecofer-profile-election-forecasting-new-theory-108944?fbclid=IwAR1f8w7r3odfKTYpcl8D9NlWbtAxA1ngRfMUZOauZbIb5V8dSMb1KvDSEVE