They have some work to do to make up for that. Predicted Biden in a solid 2nd place.

Yes, we have some work to do!

The 2016 election proves it.

So dead wrong.

Why did nobody see buttigieg coming? I'm baffled by the whole thing.

David Binder, who's a bit of a non-traditional pollster, had Buttigieg ahead in his final poll on 1/31.

The problem with polling a caucus, of course, is that it only accounts for the first ballot. Most, if not all, of the pollsters don't even consider movement of supporters of non-viable candidates and the like. Some covered stuff like first-choice/second-choice, but I can't recall any of them predicting post-move totals.

You have to invest much more time in a caucus, and so it is harder to determine who is a "likely caucus voter."

And then the threshold and second round problem. We predicted final totals, assuming Pete, at the 15% level, could get shut out in up to 50% of the precincts. Wrong!

Very hard!

Of course, turnout was also somewhat lower than expected, which further complicated predictions.

To be fair, the polls were clear: Sanders #1, Biden #2, and Biden had been a steady 20% in Iowa for a while. Pete was at 16%, which seemed to mean that he could be shut out in as many as 50% of the precincts, given the 15% threshold.

CW had the Impeachment Trial hurting the Senators and helping Buttigieg and Biden. That was half right because they didn't account for the battering that Biden would take in the process. It was all BS and people knew it, but it was to much like the Damn EMails. So the Biden collapse was masked by the natural rally effect of firm support of a candidate under attack that was actually eroding.

The other thing that the polls missed because there weren't enough of them. Was how much the undecided vote increased.

I wish the data was easier to get, but what I have looked at so far indicates that For Klobuchar and Warren in particular showed their strongest support in the places where their campaigns managed to get to in the days during the trial. I don't have a full dataset but that appears to be a solid trend. Some of that will be of course campaigns focusing on where they were strong, but that is part of the problem they had to rush in and play defense. But it looks like they just didn't get the chance to make the final pitch and rally their troops.

Bordering state doesn't matter at all to NH residents. I lived there.

Just look at Elizabeth Warren's current status given her borderstate state. In fact, given all the MA transplants to southern NH, it is stunning that Elizabeth Warren is not doing better.

My point is that Bernie is earning it. And he has to protect it from other challengers like Mayor Pete.