The model did say that. The article even says sanders was favored to win sc even though he really wasn’t.


Ever since he finished fourth in Iowa, Biden has no longer been the favorite in South Carolina, according to our model. Sanders currently has a 1 in 2 (47 percent) chance of winning South Carolina, while Biden has a 2 in 5 (37 percent) shot. However, part of the reason our model has Sanders as the favorite is that it thinks Biden could drop out before South Carolina even votes. In the scenarios where Biden is still in the race come Feb. 29, though, he is probably still favored in the Palmetto State

Considering that that's extraordinarily unlikely before SC, one would think that 538 could factor it out.

I'm starting to understand the wild swings in their predictions the past couple of weeks. The numbers never made any sense, but if it was thinking Biden might withdraw post-NH, it is at least not as inexplicable.

I'd say unlikely, but by no means impossible. It depends on how long he can go without good news, without running out of money.

I think he was always going to fight there no matter what...

'Joe Biden’s presidential campaign took in $22.7 million in the fourth quarter, an improving fundraising pace that still lags some of his rivals for the 2020 Democratic nomination.

It marks the best cash haul for the former vice president so far, his campaign announced Thursday. It did not say how much money it had in the bank heading into January, the crucial final weeks before the first primary nominating contest in Iowa.

“We had a great quarter, and we’re going to expect another one next time,” Biden said in a video shared by his campaign.'

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/01/02/joe-biden-raises-22point7-million-in-the-fourth-quarter.html

since Iowa, and since New Hampshire. Probably not. But who knows how much they're falling short by, how much cushion they have, and what they need to maintain staffing and media presence in Nevada and SC? It may be well under control... but it can also be an issue, and we just don't know. That's why, while I don't think he'll be dropping out, I wouldn't bet my house on it. There's a small but not insignificant amount of uncertainty here.

Joe Biden to host more than 250 donors from Wall Street, big business at NYC fundraisers – here’s the guest list

'The first gathering is set to take place at Sarabeth’s restaurant earlier in the day in Manhattan and the second event will be at the nearby Wayfarer restaurant, according to people with direct knowledge of the matter, who declined to be named as these decisions are made in private. The guest list shows there will be at least 280 attendees split between the two events and each have contributed $2,800 to gain entrance. Nobody has dropped out of attending, these people noted.

There are many others who donated that same amount but could not attend, these people added.'

https://www.cn0/02/13/joe-biden-hosts-wall-street-donors-at-ny-fundraisers-as-campaign-struggles.html


280 times $2,800.00?

'Jethro!''Commence to ciphering.'



'2 gazinta 4, 2 times, 3 gazinta to 9, 3 times.'

$784,000.00?

It's also the first state (realistically) he expected to pick up significant delegates and start a run. If the chances weren't zero, they were as close as it gets.

That's why there's any question at all.

Based upon a few state polls.

That’s going to determine if he can stay in the race past Super Tuesday, not polls.

So I assume he has cash.

have been giving too.

to Biden all the time he's just fine.

Strange that people are so worried about donations to other candidates. The concern seems so... concerned.

As I noted in another OP..."Spinning Isn't Winning!".

Super Tuesday is coming fast. We'll see how things are going then. IMHO Biden will be in it to win it all the way.





ONLY!!! 2020 and beyond.

It had Sanders and Biden exactly where they are now. Wouldn't fit in w/ the falling. And it would contradict his crap model. Like the new GA poll did.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-d/south-carolina/

People cite 538 when winning. But rarely when losing.

Same with the national polls, or the head to head polls.

But Nate still gets the clicks.

I can't believe I'm citing commondreams.

Nate Silver Is Making This Up as He Goes

'It’s a curious stance from a man who claims, among other self-imposed limits and constraints, that his empirical models deliberately seek to ignore those major public events that move—usually briefly—opinions about politics and events.'

https://www.commondreams.org/views/2019/10/30/nate-silver-making-he-goes

Hold that thought...


Iowa Might Have Screwed Up The Whole Nomination Process

'The answer in the case of Iowa is that it matters a lot. Despite its demographic non-representativeness, and the quirks of the caucuses process, the amount of media coverage the state gets makes it far more valuable a prize than you’d assume from the fact that it only accounts for 41 of the Democrats’ 3,979 pledged delegates.'

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/iowa-might-have-screwed-up-the-whole-nomination-process/

Is it me, or did he forget the plot?

As squirecam noted above, the model "thinks" that Biden might drop out before SC, which is partly why there was such a wild swing in the predictions.

There was, quite literally, zero chance of that happening. I can't believe that he either didn't factor it out or had no way to.

Sanders winning Tenn. and OK? What?

Was he going for self-fulfilling prophecy?

Their reputation is pretty poor so he might essentially be ignoring it. Unfortunately, most of the polls out of SC recently have been from mediocre firms and ECU isn't rated so it's hard to tell what's going on.

Somewhat ironically, the highest rated poll out of SC in the past month is...Fox News. Inexplicably, they have a decent polling organization, probably entirely by accident.

I think Zogby called my landline a few years back and asked if I was *********. My AOL name from ancient times. LOL

Yeah, Fox is pretty good. I think polling is where they exile the smart people.

There still isn't a new poll out from Alabama. Last one was 3/19, and its primary is March 3rd. Nothing from KY too.

It was probably worth bringing up since it's in the calcs.

Yeah, no polling from much of the stretch from now to Super Tuesday outside of the biggies. It's generating a lot of bad data and unrealistic assumptions, not the least of which was giving people the impression that the race was basically over.

This has been one odd cycle and we've barely started.

early in the game, and bias. Could be unconscious, but nonetheless.

With the didn't quite compute BS.

'He (Silver) once described Peggy Noonan, apparently without irony, as someone who is “very good at rhetoric and argument.” Noonan, the former Republican speechwriter responsible for the line that lost George H.W. Bush the 1992 election...'

Link to tweet

He was the front runner until somebody cast an actual vote.

I'm not putting much stock in polls. We shall see if he can make up ground in the next few primaries. Good for him if he does. He's trying to project confidence and swears he's going to win from here on out. He has too, or he's a goner.

My politics line up way more with Bernie than Biden but they are both too old IMO, do we want an 82 year old president by the end of one term? Bloomberg would be 82 as well. Really?

It just seems like a risk to me. Warren would be, at the end of 2 terms, about the age those 3 are right now.

to do to re establish our agencies. He truly will appoint the best people.

GET BEHIND JOE IF YOU DON'T WANT A MIKE.