By his looks alone who is a big orange maggot fan. He thinks the cretin is the greatest president in his lifetime. He can't understand why the undocumented don't become citizens ( he's that ignorant) and since he works hard all those other Mexicans are lazy gang drug dealer rapists.

FYI the guy was raised by his uncle in Texas who was very strict with him and conservative. It explains why he is a hateful jerk.

Hispanics are unusually loyal to the incumbent. It is yet another example of big picture analysis dominating day-to-day obsession with details. Obviously it makes no sense that Hispanics would trend toward Trump but we'd be moronic to deny it, and to fail to take necessary measures.

These are the recent numbers regarding how a presidential winner fared the first time among Hispanics, and then during re-election. I should note this was not a trend when I first started following political math in 1992. Carter in 1980 and Reagan in 1984 did not fare well with Hispanics. But once the Hispanic share of the electorate expanded in numbers and diversity, the trend established. I remember the articles throughout 1996 describing Clinton's rise among Hispanics.

1992 -- Clinton 61 Bush 25 Perot 14
1996 -- Clinton 73 Dole 21 Perot 6

2000 -- Gore 62 Bush 35
2004 -- Kerry 53 Bush 44

2008 -- Obama 67 McCain 31
2012 -- Obama 71 Romney 27

Beginning several months ago I posted many times that we couldn't merely assign the recent Hispanic percentage to the Democratic nominee, due to this incumbency angle. I follow situational angles beyond anything else. Trump basically doesn't have to do anything on their behalf to gain support. He could probably mock and condemn Hispanics every day and gain support compared to 2016.

IMO, Beto is the ticket. Nate Silver recently did an analysis on our candidates, analyzing 5 key categories including the Hispanic vote. Nate listed Harris and Beto on top, regarding strength in all categories. I liked his analysis other than I'm not convinced Harris would be strong among Hispanics nationally, not to the degree we need. Beto winning 64% of the Hispanic vote against Cruz in a red state is more valuable to me than Harris narrowly losing the Hispanic vote 53-47 to fellow Democrat Sanchez in 2016. Winning a race like that by 23 points should be enough to take Hispanic vote along with you, even if the opponent is Hispanic.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-kamala-and-beto-have-more-upside-than-joe-and-bernie/

The Latinex vote in 2016 was overwhelmingly Democratic and will be in 2020 as well.

countries, now and past, - have created waves.

and Aunt Thomascinas be damned as there will always be those looking for personal opportunity while betraying moral principle.

Many escaped poverty, violence, and persecution in various forms. Of course it makes sense they wouldn't want those negative aspects of their former countries to appear here.

Last edited Sun Feb 24, 2019, 06:27 PM - Edit history (2)

Are the equivalent of "Mexico coming here"?

I'm not understanding; is there a finer point I'm missing because this sounds exactly what Trump has been saying.

These new immigrants are fleeing the very same things all legal immigrants fled - crime, terror, poverty, and oppression.

Conservative immigration policy is actually quite simple. They want to turn the US into a 3rd world shithole that no one will want to come to.

Translate into Mexico coming here?

Using Trump's words: "They bring crime, violence, drugs" ?
That's RW talking points. Hispanic Americans believe that?



I understand the Catholic Hispanics conservatives opposing abortion, but other than that I don't understand why any Hispanics would vote for Trump. And I truly don't understand how these new immigrants coming here means "Mexico coming here."

So they like it the way it is, which makes them conservative. Plus, they tend to be more religious, which usually means more conservative.

Democrats fool themselves when they think demography is destiny. It isn't, at least not in the way we think about it.