Democratic Primaries
Related: About this forum'We'd be f--ed': Texas Dems sweat a Bernie Sanders ticket
AUSTIN, Texas Bernie Sanders staying power atop the 2020 field has Democratic insiders in Texas on edge: Theyre worried nominating the Vermont senator would kneecap their hard-fought campaign to flip the Texas state house.
Putting a self-proclaimed democratic socialist at the top of the ticket would squander a prime opportunity to seize statehouse seats and congressional districts that have long been out of reach, robbing the party of a hand in next years crucial redistricting process, more than a half-dozen Democratic candidates, activists and political consultants said in interviews.
There is overall uncertainty which is growing. The real fear for Texas Ds remains Sanders," Bill Miller, a longtime Austin lobbyist who has worked with both Democrats and Republicans, said of a Sanders ticket. 'Wed be fucked' thats what theyre saying. The drain at the top goes down to the bottom.
Texas may not be a presidential battleground, but a wave of GOP retirements in Congress, shifting demographics and Donald Trumps lightning-rod presidency offer Democrats a shot at real power after two decades of Republican dominance. And to insiders like Miller, plans to nationalize the health care and electricity sectors will spook voters and weigh down local Democrats who are trying to thread a needle in this still deeply conservative state.
The Rs are on their knees praying every day for Bernie, Miller said.
State-level Democrats across the country are also starting to weigh what each contender will mean for down-ballot races in the aftermath of the first two Democratic contests, which saw Joe Biden's star power wane, Pete Buttigieg notch a muddled first place finish in Iowa and Sanders eke out a victory in New Hampshire a place he dominated four years ago. The uncertainty also clouds the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee's $50 million effort to flip state chambers in places like Arizona and North Carolina, where operatives have to fine-tune the party's message in swing states.
https://www.politico.com/news/2020/02/15/texas-dems-sweat-bernie-sanders-ticket-110524
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
highplainsdem
(49,006 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
thesquanderer
(11,990 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Gothmog
(145,413 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
left-of-center2012
(34,195 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
apcalc
(4,465 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
dware
(12,419 posts)not only would Bernie get hammered in the GE, but we can kiss the Senate goodbye and possibly the loss of the House, that would put the Mango Menace in total control, with the added nightmare of his nominating 1-3 possible SCJ's, which would fuck America for generations to come.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Ill vote for him if hes the nominee but I really hope he isnt.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
JohnBoltonsmustache
(21 posts)The self-defeating prophecies by the Media and non-Bernie Supporters will do more harm than the Senators nomination itself.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
MarcA
(2,195 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
MH1
(17,600 posts)There is bad blood from 2016. Fair or not, it is reality, and a drag on his campaign this time. It wasn't fair in 2016 that republicans had a 30-year head start on the smear campaign against Hillary Clinton - but that was a fact of reality that I wish more people had soberly considered.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Cha
(297,379 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Gothmog
(145,413 posts)I am on the ground in Texas and I am working on a number of races. sanders would be poison to down ballot candidates in Texas
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Still In Wisconsin
(4,450 posts)Republican wins at the state and local level would take a generation to reverse. Compounding the problem is the fact that 2020 is a census year, meaning the Republican gerrymandering would become much more extreme than it already is. But hey, we'd lock down the precinct in central Vermont that encompasses three communes and two organic farms.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
WA-03 Democrat
(3,050 posts)Bernie will damage the Democratic Party brand so badly well have only one party - tRump Republicans
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Moderateguy
(945 posts)Most people are not politically savvy... They do not even know their local candidate and the the coattails of the candidate at the top of the ticket carries them....
I consider Austin to be the liberal bastion of Texas and I do not foresee the democrats making any down-ticket gains even in Austin if Bernie is at the top of the ticket.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
DanTex
(20,709 posts)Umm, OK. A lobbyist doesn't want Bernie to win.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
Hassin Bin Sober
(26,330 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
UniteFightBack
(8,231 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
OliverQ
(3,363 posts)Bernie is polling #1 in Texas. If Bernie does well in Texas, why would down ballot races do poorly? That's not how things work. Anyone who votes for Bernie is going to vote for the other Dems on the ticket.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
Ron Green
(9,823 posts)n/t
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
Gothmog
(145,413 posts)75% of Texas Democrats do not want sanders at the top of the ticket.
sanders would be poison to down ballot races
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
OliverQ
(3,363 posts)Biden and Bloomberg will absolutely destroy voter turnout numbers.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
Gothmog
(145,413 posts)The concept of a magical voter revolution is debunked
Link to tweet
This has remarkably little empirical support. Take the 2018 midterm elections, in which the Democrats took back the House (a net 40-seat gain), carried the House popular vote by almost nine points and flipped seven Republican-held governorships. Turnout in that election was outstanding, topping 49 percent the highest midterm turnout since 1914 and up 13 points over the previous midterm, in 2014 and the demographic composition of the electorate came remarkably close to that of a presidential election year. (Typically, midterm voters tend to be much older and much whiter than those in presidential elections.) This was due both to fewer presidential drop-off voters (people who voted in 2016 but not 2018) and to more midterm surge voters (those who voted in 2018 but not 2016) ..
This analysis shreds an implicit assumption of Sanders and other members of the turnout-will-solve-everything crowd: that if they polarize the election by highlighting progressive issues, their nonvoters will show up at the polls, but none of the nonvoters from the other side will. That view is also contradicted by many political science studies. Stanford political scientists Andrew Hall and Daniel Thompson, for example, studied House races between 2006 and 2014 and found that highly ideological candidates who beat moderates for a party nomination indeed increased turnout in their own party in the general election but they increased the opposition turnout even more. (The difference was between three and eight percentage points.) Apparently, their extreme political stances did more to turn out the other side to vote against them than to turn out their own side to vote for them.
The turnout equation does not necessarily return positive results for a candidate like Sanders. The reverse is more likely. It is truly magical thinking to believe that, in a highly polarized situation, only your side gets to increase turnout. And if the other side turns out in droves, you might not like the results a warning Democrats would be wise to heed.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
OliverQ
(3,363 posts)That's higher than any other candidate. No one but Bernie does well with every demographic.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
Cha
(297,379 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Blue_true
(31,261 posts)Like in 2000, 2010, they are determined to fuck things up for another decade plus. Texas democrats, like Florida democrats, are yelling "please DON'T nominate Bernie Sanders", so far they aren't being heard.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Autumn
(45,120 posts)That leaves Biden and Bernie is polling higher in Texas than he is.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
Gothmog
(145,413 posts)We have made a great deal of progress that will go down the drain if a weak and unelectable candidate like sanders is on the top of the ticket. After the 2010 elections, there were 101 republicans members of the Texas state House compared to 49 Democrats. We flipped 12 state house seats in 2018 and need 9 more to take control of the Texas House. We flipped two Congressional seats (Lizzie Fletcher and Colin Allred). The DCCC is targeting 7 congressional seats. I have hopes that HJ Hegar could beat Cornyn. Texas would be a battleground state if Biden is the nominee
If sanders is the nominee, we can kiss Lizzie's and Colin's seats goodbye. sanders would be poison.
Link to tweet
Hewitt said ORourkes loss reveals that far-left ideas dont bring out enough people to flip seats. The idea that more people will come out to vote if a progressive is on the ballot, thats fools gold, he said....
Polls have offered little guidance. Biden is still a favorite among establishment figures and led a poll of Texas voters before Iowa but Sanders surged after the caucuses and Michael Bloomberg is on the rise.
Texas will eventually turn blue due to demographic trends but having sanders at the top of the ticket would set these efforts back
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
redqueen
(115,103 posts)obviously most of us are definitely not 'sweating' it.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
Gothmog
(145,413 posts)Just because the vote against sanders is split does not mean that sanders is popular with mainstream. sanders has a cap of around 25% and has not exceeded that cap
BTW, that means that 75% of the Democratic voters are NOT supporting sanders
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
redqueen
(115,103 posts)Hmm.
"The drain at the top goes down to the bottom. <- what does that even mean?
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
PJMcK
(22,037 posts)I particularly enjoy your Tweet of the Day.
Have a couple of hearts, RandySF!
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
RandySF
(58,982 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Gothmog
(145,413 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Gothmog
(145,413 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Gothmog
(145,413 posts)TX CD 22 is an open seat with Pete Olson retiring. The DCCC has targeted this seat for flipping. There are 15 candidates in GOP primary including the grandson of GHW Bush. Another candidate, Kathleen Wall, is running in the GOP primary and she spent $6 million in 2018 running in GOP primary for TX CD 2 and did not make GOP primary runoff. I have had Wall block walkers come to my house twice (I live in a very GOP neighborhood) and I have found Wall doorhanger on my door twice now.
Pierce Bush is running against socialism
Link to tweet
Sri Preston Kulkarni is the leading Democrat for this seat (Sri has a GOP type and another person running against him in the Texas Democratic Primary) I texted this ad to Sri and he knew about it already. Sri Preston Kulkarni is a great guy and we need to flip this seat
If sanders is the nominee, we can forget about this seat and we will have Kevin McCarthy as speaker
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Gothmog
(145,413 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden