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Joe BidenCongratulations to our presumptive Democratic nominee, Joe Biden!
 

RandySF

(58,982 posts)
Sat Feb 15, 2020, 01:31 PM Feb 2020

'We'd be f--ed': Texas Dems sweat a Bernie Sanders ticket

AUSTIN, Texas — Bernie Sanders’ staying power atop the 2020 field has Democratic insiders in Texas on edge: They’re worried nominating the Vermont senator would kneecap their hard-fought campaign to flip the Texas state house.

Putting a self-proclaimed democratic socialist at the top of the ticket would squander a prime opportunity to seize statehouse seats — and congressional districts — that have long been out of reach, robbing the party of a hand in next year’s crucial redistricting process, more than a half-dozen Democratic candidates, activists and political consultants said in interviews.

There is overall uncertainty which is growing. The real fear for Texas D’s remains Sanders," Bill Miller, a longtime Austin lobbyist who has worked with both Democrats and Republicans, said of a Sanders ticket. “'We’d be fucked' — that’s what they’re saying. The drain at the top goes down to the bottom.”

Texas may not be a presidential battleground, but a wave of GOP retirements in Congress, shifting demographics and Donald Trump’s lightning-rod presidency offer Democrats a shot at real power after two decades of Republican dominance. And to insiders like Miller, plans to nationalize the health care and electricity sectors will spook voters and weigh down local Democrats who are trying to thread a needle in this still deeply conservative state.

“The R’s are on their knees praying every day for Bernie,” Miller said.

State-level Democrats across the country are also starting to weigh what each contender will mean for down-ballot races in the aftermath of the first two Democratic contests, which saw Joe Biden's star power wane, Pete Buttigieg notch a muddled first place finish in Iowa and Sanders eke out a victory in New Hampshire — a place he dominated four years ago. The uncertainty also clouds the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee's $50 million effort to flip state chambers in places like Arizona and North Carolina, where operatives have to fine-tune the party's message in swing states.




https://www.politico.com/news/2020/02/15/texas-dems-sweat-bernie-sanders-ticket-110524

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
37 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
Highlight: NoneDon't highlight anything 5 newestHighlight 5 most recent replies
'We'd be f--ed': Texas Dems sweat a Bernie Sanders ticket (Original Post) RandySF Feb 2020 OP
K&R! Was just about to post this. highplainsdem Feb 2020 #1
And yet, Sanders is polling surprisingly well against Trump... in Texas! thesquanderer Feb 2020 #5
Same here Gothmog Feb 2020 #20
Don't Texans want a socialist revolution? left-of-center2012 Feb 2020 #2
Imo , we are dead in the water. apcalc Feb 2020 #3
A Bernie nomination will be a disaster for the Democratic Party, dware Feb 2020 #4
I agree Mz Pip Feb 2020 #27
The Flogging of Bernie and His Supporters will Continue JohnBoltonsmustache Feb 2020 #6
Agreed. n/t MarcA Feb 2020 #8
Either way, best we don't nominate him. MH1 Feb 2020 #15
This is VETTING.. No one is Exempt. Cha Feb 2020 #16
I strongly disagree Gothmog Feb 2020 #24
Burnie at the top of the ticket would kneecap the Democratic Party for ten years or more. Still In Wisconsin Feb 2020 #7
Agree but you are more optimistic than I WA-03 Democrat Feb 2020 #11
As a Texan I agree.... Moderateguy Feb 2020 #9
According to "Bill Miller, a longtime Austin lobbyist". DanTex Feb 2020 #10
Yep. The more lobbyists who have heartburn the better. Hassin Bin Sober Feb 2020 #31
Go with Joe...he will suppress puke turnout because they can tolerate him and many hate dump. nt UniteFightBack Feb 2020 #12
Stupid argument. OliverQ Feb 2020 #13
But, but, but... he's not a... Ron Green Feb 2020 #14
25% of the Texas democratic vote is not sufficient to win down ballot races Gothmog Feb 2020 #22
Nope, he wouldn't. OliverQ Feb 2020 #29
There has NOT been and there will not be a magical voter revolution Gothmog Feb 2020 #30
Bernie is beating Trump with independents by 18 points. OliverQ Feb 2020 #33
Thanks for this from Texas Dems, Texas T! Cha Feb 2020 #17
People that vote in primaries tend to be activists. Blue_true Feb 2020 #18
Bill Miller, a longtime Austin lobbyist. I laughed right there Autumn Feb 2020 #19
I and a large number of real Texans have been working hard to turn Texas blue Gothmog Feb 2020 #21
Well he's polling ahead of other Dems here, so... redqueen Feb 2020 #23
sanders also has 75% of Texas Demcorats preferring a different candidate Gothmog Feb 2020 #32
"Bill Miller, a longtime Austin lobbyist who has worked with both Democrats and Republicans" redqueen Feb 2020 #25
Thanks for all of your posts PJMcK Feb 2020 #26
Thanks so much! RandySF Feb 2020 #28
sanders would kill down ballot candidates in Texas and other states Gothmog Feb 2020 #34
Texas Democrats are worried about sanders killing down ballot candidates Gothmog Feb 2020 #35
The grandson of GHW Bush is running this ad against sanders and socialism Gothmog Feb 2020 #36
Texas Democrats are worried about sanders Gothmog Feb 2020 #37
 

highplainsdem

(49,006 posts)
1. K&R! Was just about to post this.
Sat Feb 15, 2020, 01:32 PM
Feb 2020
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

thesquanderer

(11,990 posts)
5. And yet, Sanders is polling surprisingly well against Trump... in Texas!
Sat Feb 15, 2020, 01:49 PM
Feb 2020
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

left-of-center2012

(34,195 posts)
2. Don't Texans want a socialist revolution?
Sat Feb 15, 2020, 01:35 PM
Feb 2020
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

apcalc

(4,465 posts)
3. Imo , we are dead in the water.
Sat Feb 15, 2020, 01:37 PM
Feb 2020
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

dware

(12,419 posts)
4. A Bernie nomination will be a disaster for the Democratic Party,
Sat Feb 15, 2020, 01:37 PM
Feb 2020

not only would Bernie get hammered in the GE, but we can kiss the Senate goodbye and possibly the loss of the House, that would put the Mango Menace in total control, with the added nightmare of his nominating 1-3 possible SCJ's, which would fuck America for generations to come.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

Mz Pip

(27,452 posts)
27. I agree
Sat Feb 15, 2020, 08:05 PM
Feb 2020

I’ll vote for him if he’s the nominee but I really hope he isn’t.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 
6. The Flogging of Bernie and His Supporters will Continue
Sat Feb 15, 2020, 01:52 PM
Feb 2020

The self-defeating prophecies by the Media and non-Bernie Supporters will do more harm than the Senator’s nomination itself.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided
 

MH1

(17,600 posts)
15. Either way, best we don't nominate him.
Sat Feb 15, 2020, 03:31 PM
Feb 2020

There is bad blood from 2016. Fair or not, it is reality, and a drag on his campaign this time. It wasn't fair in 2016 that republicans had a 30-year head start on the smear campaign against Hillary Clinton - but that was a fact of reality that I wish more people had soberly considered.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

Cha

(297,379 posts)
16. This is VETTING.. No one is Exempt.
Sat Feb 15, 2020, 06:00 PM
Feb 2020
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

Gothmog

(145,413 posts)
24. I strongly disagree
Sat Feb 15, 2020, 07:55 PM
Feb 2020

I am on the ground in Texas and I am working on a number of races. sanders would be poison to down ballot candidates in Texas

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

Still In Wisconsin

(4,450 posts)
7. Burnie at the top of the ticket would kneecap the Democratic Party for ten years or more.
Sat Feb 15, 2020, 01:55 PM
Feb 2020

Republican wins at the state and local level would take a generation to reverse. Compounding the problem is the fact that 2020 is a census year, meaning the Republican gerrymandering would become much more extreme than it already is. But hey, we'd lock down the precinct in central Vermont that encompasses three communes and two organic farms.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided
 

WA-03 Democrat

(3,050 posts)
11. Agree but you are more optimistic than I
Sat Feb 15, 2020, 02:37 PM
Feb 2020

Bernie will damage the Democratic Party brand so badly we’ll have only one party - tRump Republicans

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

Moderateguy

(945 posts)
9. As a Texan I agree....
Sat Feb 15, 2020, 02:29 PM
Feb 2020

Most people are not politically savvy... They do not even know their local candidate and the the coattails of the candidate at the top of the ticket carries them....

I consider Austin to be the liberal bastion of Texas and I do not foresee the democrats making any down-ticket gains even in Austin if Bernie is at the top of the ticket.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided
 

DanTex

(20,709 posts)
10. According to "Bill Miller, a longtime Austin lobbyist".
Sat Feb 15, 2020, 02:35 PM
Feb 2020

Umm, OK. A lobbyist doesn't want Bernie to win.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided
 

Hassin Bin Sober

(26,330 posts)
31. Yep. The more lobbyists who have heartburn the better.
Sat Feb 15, 2020, 10:52 PM
Feb 2020
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided
 

UniteFightBack

(8,231 posts)
12. Go with Joe...he will suppress puke turnout because they can tolerate him and many hate dump. nt
Sat Feb 15, 2020, 02:39 PM
Feb 2020
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

OliverQ

(3,363 posts)
13. Stupid argument.
Sat Feb 15, 2020, 02:43 PM
Feb 2020

Bernie is polling #1 in Texas. If Bernie does well in Texas, why would down ballot races do poorly? That's not how things work. Anyone who votes for Bernie is going to vote for the other Dems on the ticket.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided
 

Ron Green

(9,823 posts)
14. But, but, but... he's not a...
Sat Feb 15, 2020, 03:26 PM
Feb 2020

n/t

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided
 

Gothmog

(145,413 posts)
22. 25% of the Texas democratic vote is not sufficient to win down ballot races
Sat Feb 15, 2020, 07:54 PM
Feb 2020

75% of Texas Democrats do not want sanders at the top of the ticket.

sanders would be poison to down ballot races

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

OliverQ

(3,363 posts)
29. Nope, he wouldn't.
Sat Feb 15, 2020, 10:48 PM
Feb 2020

Biden and Bloomberg will absolutely destroy voter turnout numbers.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided
 

Gothmog

(145,413 posts)
30. There has NOT been and there will not be a magical voter revolution
Sat Feb 15, 2020, 10:51 PM
Feb 2020

The concept of a magical voter revolution is debunked



Sanders’s explanation of why this is not a problem is simple, and he has repeated it endlessly. When a member of the Los Angeles Times editorial board asked him whether “a candidate as far to the left as you” would “alienate swing voters and moderates and independents,” the senator replied: “The only way that you beat Trump is by having an unprecedented campaign, an unprecedentedly large voter turnout.” Faiz Shakir, Sanders’s campaign manager, adds: “Bernie Sanders has very unique appeal amongst [the younger] generation and can inspire, I think, a bunch of them to vote in percentages that they have never voted before.”

This has remarkably little empirical support. Take the 2018 midterm elections, in which the Democrats took back the House (a net 40-seat gain), carried the House popular vote by almost nine points and flipped seven Republican-held governorships. Turnout in that election was outstanding, topping 49 percent — the highest midterm turnout since 1914 and up 13 points over the previous midterm, in 2014 — and the demographic composition of the electorate came remarkably close to that of a presidential election year. (Typically, midterm voters tend to be much older and much whiter than those in presidential elections.) This was due both to fewer presidential “drop-off” voters (people who voted in 2016 but not 2018) and to more midterm “surge” voters (those who voted in 2018 but not 2016)…..

This analysis shreds an implicit assumption of Sanders and other members of the turnout-will-solve-everything crowd: that if they polarize the election by highlighting progressive issues, “their” nonvoters will show up at the polls, but none of the nonvoters from the other side will. That view is also contradicted by many political science studies. Stanford political scientists Andrew Hall and Daniel Thompson, for example, studied House races between 2006 and 2014 and found that highly ideological candidates who beat moderates for a party nomination indeed increased turnout in their own party in the general election — but they increased the opposition turnout even more. (The difference was between three and eight percentage points.) Apparently, their extreme political stances did more to turn out the other side to vote against them than to turn out their own side to vote for them.

The turnout equation does not necessarily return positive results for a candidate like Sanders. The reverse is more likely. It is truly magical thinking to believe that, in a highly polarized situation, only your side gets to increase turnout. And if the other side turns out in droves, you might not like the results — a warning Democrats would be wise to heed.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

OliverQ

(3,363 posts)
33. Bernie is beating Trump with independents by 18 points.
Sat Feb 15, 2020, 10:54 PM
Feb 2020

That's higher than any other candidate. No one but Bernie does well with every demographic.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided
 

Cha

(297,379 posts)
17. Thanks for this from Texas Dems, Texas T!
Sat Feb 15, 2020, 06:01 PM
Feb 2020
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

Blue_true

(31,261 posts)
18. People that vote in primaries tend to be activists.
Sat Feb 15, 2020, 06:34 PM
Feb 2020

Like in 2000, 2010, they are determined to fuck things up for another decade plus. Texas democrats, like Florida democrats, are yelling "please DON'T nominate Bernie Sanders", so far they aren't being heard.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

Autumn

(45,120 posts)
19. Bill Miller, a longtime Austin lobbyist. I laughed right there
Sat Feb 15, 2020, 07:03 PM
Feb 2020
Last Time Texas went Dem in a GE was Jimmy Carter, I don't imagine it will go Dem again in the GE this time either. No matter who is on the ticket.

“Sanders is a complete disaster and Warren is a complete-disaster-lite,” A Buttigieg victory is “not helpful” to the party's goal,


That leaves Biden and Bernie is polling higher in Texas than he is.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided
 

Gothmog

(145,413 posts)
21. I and a large number of real Texans have been working hard to turn Texas blue
Sat Feb 15, 2020, 07:53 PM
Feb 2020

We have made a great deal of progress that will go down the drain if a weak and unelectable candidate like sanders is on the top of the ticket. After the 2010 elections, there were 101 republicans members of the Texas state House compared to 49 Democrats. We flipped 12 state house seats in 2018 and need 9 more to take control of the Texas House. We flipped two Congressional seats (Lizzie Fletcher and Colin Allred). The DCCC is targeting 7 congressional seats. I have hopes that HJ Hegar could beat Cornyn. Texas would be a battleground state if Biden is the nominee

If sanders is the nominee, we can kiss Lizzie's and Colin's seats goodbye. sanders would be poison.




“Sanders is a complete disaster and Warren is a complete-disaster-lite,” said Texas-based campaign consultant Jeff Hewitt, who has been working in Democratic politics since he served on Clinton-Gore’s campaign team in the 1990s. “At the end of the day, most of us want to win.”....

Hewitt said O’Rourke’s loss reveals that far-left ideas don’t bring out enough people to flip seats. “The idea that more people will come out to vote if a progressive is on the ballot, that’s fools gold,” he said....

Polls have offered little guidance. Biden is still a favorite among establishment figures and led a poll of Texas voters before Iowa but Sanders surged after the caucuses and Michael Bloomberg is on the rise.

Texas will eventually turn blue due to demographic trends but having sanders at the top of the ticket would set these efforts back
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

redqueen

(115,103 posts)
23. Well he's polling ahead of other Dems here, so...
Sat Feb 15, 2020, 07:55 PM
Feb 2020

obviously most of us are definitely not 'sweating' it.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided
 

Gothmog

(145,413 posts)
32. sanders also has 75% of Texas Demcorats preferring a different candidate
Sat Feb 15, 2020, 10:53 PM
Feb 2020

Just because the vote against sanders is split does not mean that sanders is popular with mainstream. sanders has a cap of around 25% and has not exceeded that cap

BTW, that means that 75% of the Democratic voters are NOT supporting sanders

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

redqueen

(115,103 posts)
25. "Bill Miller, a longtime Austin lobbyist who has worked with both Democrats and Republicans"
Sat Feb 15, 2020, 07:58 PM
Feb 2020

Hmm.

"The drain at the top goes down to the bottom.” <- what does that even mean?

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided
 

PJMcK

(22,037 posts)
26. Thanks for all of your posts
Sat Feb 15, 2020, 07:59 PM
Feb 2020

I particularly enjoy your Tweet of the Day.

Have a couple of hearts, RandySF!

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

RandySF

(58,982 posts)
28. Thanks so much!
Sat Feb 15, 2020, 09:58 PM
Feb 2020
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

Gothmog

(145,413 posts)
34. sanders would kill down ballot candidates in Texas and other states
Sun Feb 16, 2020, 01:26 PM
Feb 2020
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

Gothmog

(145,413 posts)
35. Texas Democrats are worried about sanders killing down ballot candidates
Mon Feb 17, 2020, 09:41 AM
Feb 2020
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

Gothmog

(145,413 posts)
36. The grandson of GHW Bush is running this ad against sanders and socialism
Sun Feb 23, 2020, 12:59 PM
Feb 2020

TX CD 22 is an open seat with Pete Olson retiring. The DCCC has targeted this seat for flipping. There are 15 candidates in GOP primary including the grandson of GHW Bush. Another candidate, Kathleen Wall, is running in the GOP primary and she spent $6 million in 2018 running in GOP primary for TX CD 2 and did not make GOP primary runoff. I have had Wall block walkers come to my house twice (I live in a very GOP neighborhood) and I have found Wall doorhanger on my door twice now.

Pierce Bush is running against socialism



Sri Preston Kulkarni is the leading Democrat for this seat (Sri has a GOP type and another person running against him in the Texas Democratic Primary) I texted this ad to Sri and he knew about it already. Sri Preston Kulkarni is a great guy and we need to flip this seat

If sanders is the nominee, we can forget about this seat and we will have Kevin McCarthy as speaker
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

Gothmog

(145,413 posts)
37. Texas Democrats are worried about sanders
Wed Feb 26, 2020, 10:35 AM
Feb 2020
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
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