Democratic Primaries
Related: About this forumDavid Frum: Bernie Could Cost Democrats the House
The AtlanticDemocrats succeeded in Trump country because the Democratic Party attracted a broad coalition of moderates and liberals. The Sanders campaign aims first and foremost to reinvent the Democratic coalition as a narrower ideological movement, in much the same way that the once-broad Republican coalition has been transformed. But the difference between the two is that many fewer Americans identify as progressive than as conservative. Worse for Democrats: Not only does Sanders propose to break the cookie in such a way as to leave his party with the smaller piece, but he also does so in a political context that already disfavors them.
Democrats hold virtually every one of the urban and academic districts that will rally to progressive politics. But thanks to enterprising candidates who keep in touch with their districts, they also hold Minnesotas Seventh, a 90 percent white district running north-south adjacent to the two Dakotas. Its represented in Congress by Collin Peterson, a pro-life Democrat who chairs the House Agriculture Committee. In 2018, a Democrat won the countrys richest congressional district, the Virginia Tenth, which has a median household income of more than $127,000. Democrats now represent all of the countrys 10 richest districts.
Sanders supporters take as an article of faith that Sanders will win votes from working-class voters who swung to Trump in 2016. This idea is based on a single data-point: Some 10 to 12 percent of those who voted for Sanders in the 2016 primary then voted for Trump in the general election. If Sanders could have held all those primary voters in a general election, and also if he had won everybody who voted for Hillary Clinton in the primary, then he would have defeated Trump. But once you state the two ifs, you see the problem.
The political scientist Brian Schaffner, who closely studied these Sanders-Trump switchers, finds that they were older white voters with conservative racial views. As compared with other Sanders voters, the Sanders-Trump switchers were much more likely to deny that white people enjoy special advantages in American society. They were also much less positive about President Obama than were Sanders voters who did not switch to Trump.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
DanTex
(20,709 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
brooklynite
(94,727 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
DanTex
(20,709 posts)He opposes Bernies agenda because he doesnt want things like universal healthcare and free college. He was stupid enough to think lying the nation into the Iraq War was a good idea when he worked for Bush.
I have no idea why any Dems think its a good idea to listen to people like Frum, right wingers who have a track record of being wrong. But if youre wondering why Bernie is doing so well, that might be a clue.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
brooklynite
(94,727 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
DanTex
(20,709 posts)People should know that is all. If they want to believe the analysis of a GOPer who has been wrong about everything, its up to them.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
brooklynite
(94,727 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
DanTex
(20,709 posts)persuading people not to vote for a guy who's policies he disagrees with.
And I find it very weird that right-wing opinions keep getting posted here in DU.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
thesquanderer
(11,992 posts)Like in 2016... there were certain columnists who NEVER had a kind word to say about Bernie. So I knew their analysis would be skewed. Similarly there were certain columnists who NEVER had a kind word to say about Hillary. Ditto. Any "analyst" who thinks one candidate is always on the right side and the other is always on the wrong is not worth serious consideration, IMO. Even if s/he may make some good points. It's like the boy who cried wolf. When the stuff is slanted so often, you'll be skeptical even if they're right.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
myohmy2
(3,176 posts)...I think you're right...
...Frum keeps talking like he does, he may cost us the House...
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Celerity
(43,499 posts)Party-hating ultra left people and magazines and sites like the DSA (which has a significant actual Trotskyist communist element inside it) and Jacobin magazine, etc etc.
These are real socialists and outright communists, not the semantic false-labelling attempts by Sanders to re-define democratic socialism (which is a real thing, and entails expropriation of the means of production by state or social forces or both) as some FDR-style social democracy.
Bernie is giving the true radicals cover by his game-playing label-wise.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
DanTex
(20,709 posts)Big difference. Jacobin didnt hell lie the nation into Iraq, or cut taxes for rich people, or appoint anti-choice judges, or any of the other things that David Frum helped Bush do.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
Celerity
(43,499 posts)It is gaslighting to claim otherwise.
I am NOT a Frum fangirl AT ALL, but his analysis is sound. The US has a massive reactionary (who will be energised by the billion plus USD worth of red-baiting adverts dropped on our heads, all buttressed by Bernie's own words) voting component and a shedload of 'I got mine so FUCK YOU' types who vote in droves. Nominating Sanders in 2020 America is madness, and will likely cost us the House as well. Almost ALL of the 2018 R to D flips were in pink/Purple/red districts where a rad dem soc would get crushed and will be in massive danger with Bernie at the top of the ticket. The Berniecrats overall racked up a HORRID electoral record in the 2018 federal office election.
You seem to think that just becuase many of us make these positings that we are anti-Bernie in terms of his programmes at an a priori level. Many of us are not. I live in Sweden now and know that a social democratic (NOT DEMOCRATIC SOCIALIST) regime is far better as a form of governance. BUT, the US is NOT Sweden or Norway or Finland or Denmark even Canada or the Netherlands or Germany.
It is a massively manipulated hyper-capitalist, deregulated, dog-eat-dog socio-economic and political tableau that must be taken into account as of 2020. Good intentions you may well have, but the cold whip-hand of reality will slap those down with a brutal force and then Trump will proceed with all due deliberate speed to destroy what is left of our constitutional republic at a multiplicity of levels.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
pnwmom
(108,994 posts)Many of our representatives come from swing districts with people who are NOT going to be helped by having to run on a ticket headed by a self proclaimed socialist.
He would have made it much easier to win nationally if he didn't insist on that label. But he does, so we're faced with the possibility of losing both the Presidency and the House.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
OnDoutside
(19,970 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
empedocles
(15,751 posts)here at DU, for BS supporters.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
oasis
(49,408 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Autumn
(45,120 posts)republican. Fuck him and his opinion too.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
brooklynite
(94,727 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
NurseJackie
(42,862 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Celerity
(43,499 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Autumn
(45,120 posts)blue I would look out, see a blue sky, and grab an umbrella and a coat. Here's what I think about Republicans, if you use them to knock down a man who thinks the poor and all Americans deserve an even playing field as the middle class and wealthy it show me who is running scared and why. I'm seeing a lot of republican talking points and opinions... all about that horrible Bernie . Maybe republican Frum should analyze his Orange Anus and start pointing out a few of his fucking problems.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
NurseJackie
(42,862 posts)I figured as much.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Autumn
(45,120 posts)People can hang on every word that drips out of a republicans ass if they desire to but I'll fucking pass YMOV
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
NurseJackie
(42,862 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Autumn
(45,120 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
NurseJackie
(42,862 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Autumn
(45,120 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
NurseJackie
(42,862 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Kurt V.
(5,624 posts)picture, which is the blue wave. There was a story here yesterday about dem house members approval by their constitutes bc of the impeachment. the blue wave is still ongoing and according to Rachel Bitecofer, the actual real analysis who predicted the blue wave, turnout will approach 70% in November
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
Celerity
(43,499 posts)The very type of candidates that Bernie and his disparate backing forces HATE. Berniecrats got CRUSHED overall in the 2018 federal office elections. The same paradigm will be played out in 2020, which the disastrous added effect that Bernie will be the millstone around all those R to D flip moderates' necks. We will be damn lucky to hold the House, let alone win back the POTUS from the monster Rump. Bernie cannot win FL in the general, and that means if he loses ANY of 18 possible states or pairs (let alone more than one), he loses the general. It is simple maths.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Progressive dog
(6,918 posts)as he did in 2016. It's worse than Frum thinks.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
uponit7771
(90,364 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
melman
(7,681 posts)Say it isn't so!
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
ChubbyStar
(3,191 posts)Insepector Clouseau: What is the price of one piano compared to the terrible crime that's been committed here? Mrs. Leverlilly: But that's a priceless Steinway! Clouseau: Not anymore!
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
I don't know what I'm going to do without the lunch updates. I suppose I'll learn to cope.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
Nanjeanne
(4,975 posts)et al on who THEY think Democrats should vote and not vote for.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
Cha
(297,655 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
highplainsdem
(49,034 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden