Democratic Primaries
Related: About this forumSC SHOCK POLL! Clemson University Palmetto Poll: Biden 35% Sanders 13%
Voters in the poll were asked: "If the election were held today, for whom would you vote?"
- Joe Biden 35%
- Tom Steyer 17%
- Bernie Sanders 13%
- Elizabeth Warren 8%
- Pete Buttigieg 8%
- Amy Klobuchar 4%
- Tulsi Gabbard 2%
- Unsure 12%
more: https://www.wyff4.com/article/clemsons-university-palmetto-poll-results-released-ahead-of-saturdays-primary/31116432
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
David__77
(23,423 posts)...
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
womanofthehills
(8,721 posts)84% or people polled were over age 41
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
David__77
(23,423 posts)I mean it's all good to get an unbalanced sample provided that some sort of reweighting of responses is done. I don't see reference reweighting at http://newsstand.clemson.edu/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/2020-Palmetto-Poll-Results.pdf.
I doubt that 55+ age group will account for 64% of the total electorate. I think it would that group would account for around 46% of the total if things are roughly aligned with this 2016 CNN exit poll: https://www.cnn.com/election/2016/primaries/polls/sc/dem
In any event, we shall see soon enough on results.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
honest.abe
(8,679 posts)That is standard procedure.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
David__77
(23,423 posts)I don't know - there are no cross-tabs with which that can be readily determined. The use of the phrase "respondents" in the narrative on the results seems like perhaps they didn't do it.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
honest.abe
(8,679 posts)https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/484723-biden-leads-by-18-points-in-south-carolina-poll
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
David__77
(23,423 posts)In this case, it wasn't me trying to engage in wishful thinking so much as being interested. In my work, I design and deploy surveys in another area of research, and could imagine that a researcher might think something like "well, we got a statistically valid random sample, and we should not weight it because we simply do not know what the true population will be." Or something like that... I think that sometimes researchers get sidetracked by a certain dogmatism about concepts like statistical precision, when a "reality check" might be useful. Anyways, thank you for letting me know!
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
Cha
(297,360 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
SunSeeker
(51,576 posts)There should be no open primaries. Why invite ratfucking?
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
LakeArenal
(28,827 posts)Jay Zeus H cripes.
Im not shocked. Pleased. Happy.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Response to honest.abe (Original post)
BlueTillIDie This message was self-deleted by its author.
honest.abe
(8,679 posts)No mention of party affiliation.. afaik.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Response to honest.abe (Reply #4)
BlueTillIDie This message was self-deleted by its author.
honest.abe
(8,679 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Response to honest.abe (Reply #12)
BlueTillIDie This message was self-deleted by its author.
honest.abe
(8,679 posts)The Palmetto Poll is considered the gold standard in South Carolina polling..
https://newsstand.clemson.edu/mediarelations/palmetto-poll-at-clemson-to-utilize-social-media-analytics-in-advance-of-2020-democratic-primary-general-election/
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Response to honest.abe (Reply #16)
BlueTillIDie This message was self-deleted by its author.
honest.abe
(8,679 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Response to honest.abe (Reply #16)
BlueTillIDie This message was self-deleted by its author.
honest.abe
(8,679 posts)Anyway yes, I am sure its good news for Biden.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Celerity
(43,422 posts)'gold standard' is problematic.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
honest.abe
(8,679 posts)I thought they were.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Celerity
(43,422 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
redqueen
(115,103 posts)What I found most interesting is this part: "online and online panel voters"
Anyone know what that means?
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
honest.abe
(8,679 posts)How do you know for sure which one is correct?
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
redqueen
(115,103 posts)I know this is correct because it is linked from the article.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
womanofthehills
(8,721 posts)Online Panels
An online panel is a sample of persons who have agreed to complete surveys via the Internet. Although a few online panels in the United States and Europe recruit their members from probability samples (randomly selected addresses or telephone numbers), most online panels use other methods of recruitment.
The vast majority of online panels in the U.S. are made up of volunteers who were recruited online and who receive some form of compensation for completing surveys, such as small amounts of money or frequent flyer miles.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
womanofthehills
(8,721 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
Democrats Ascendant
(601 posts)Seems SC has largely made up its mind in comparison to the other early states.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
Response to honest.abe (Original post)
Name removed Message auto-removed
honest.abe
(8,679 posts)If Bernie finishes third or fourth he will take big hit on Super Tuesday.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Celerity
(43,422 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
wryter2000
(46,051 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Gamecock Lefty
(700 posts)She should be at ZERO %!
My humble opinion only.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
Response to Gamecock Lefty (Reply #7)
BlueTillIDie This message was self-deleted by its author.
TwilightZone
(25,472 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Moderateguy
(945 posts)and allow for a diversity of opinions in our party unlike the other party?
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
womanofthehills
(8,721 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
mikeysnot
(4,757 posts)A state that gave us these hacks.
lindsey graham
james demint
mark sanford
joe wilson
strom thurmund
trey gowdy
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
honest.abe
(8,679 posts)Do you not care about good Democrats in Red states? Shall we just throw them out and only allow Democrats in Blue states to vote in our primary? That is not how it works.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
mikeysnot
(4,757 posts)I stated no such thing?
I was just pointing out ... facts?
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
honest.abe
(8,679 posts)Unless you are trying to make the point I was referencing.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
TwilightZone
(25,472 posts)All delegates matter, even one from states you don't like.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
mikeysnot
(4,757 posts)hmmmmmm.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
wyldwolf
(43,867 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Politicub
(12,165 posts)The state is not in play for the general. I could be wrong.
But its a good place in which to take the temperature of voters preferences in a diverse yet conservative state.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
LanternWaste
(37,748 posts)And minimize them with both the irrelevance and petulance you illustrate here (as well as some D- grammar thrown in).
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Politicub
(12,165 posts)He needs to decisively take SC, and it is looking like it is breaking his way.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Dennis Donovan
(18,770 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
maxsolomon
(33,345 posts)Biden was expected to do well in SC.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
honest.abe
(8,679 posts)I think that would be considered a "shock" by most folks paying attention to this primary.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
maxsolomon
(33,345 posts)I don't want either of them to be the nominee, as I am DU's foremost Ageist.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
honest.abe
(8,679 posts)My fav candidate was Kamala Harris. But given what we have to work with Joe is my guy now.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
tavernier
(12,393 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
LanternWaste
(37,748 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
womanofthehills
(8,721 posts)so this poll is not very valid except for how the older people of SC will vote.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
honest.abe
(8,679 posts)That always happens in polling. Once they have the data then they have to reweight based on typical voter patterns. That is standard procedure.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
womanofthehills
(8,721 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
honest.abe
(8,679 posts)https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/484723-biden-leads-by-18-points-in-south-carolina-poll
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
HopeAgain
(4,407 posts)seems a little off since that is his strongest demographic. 63% were baby boomers. That's only 36% of the people polled being under 54.
There's more than one way to skew a poll...
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
womanofthehills
(8,721 posts)So if 35% were l8 to 45 - maybe only 15% or less in this poll were under 25.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
Bumperstickers
(199 posts).64% of those polled were over 55, 40 and under 17%
Now we know why the poll was so far off from all the other SC polls.
Age:
18 25.............3%
26 40............14%
41 54...........20%
55 64...........21%
65 plus...........43%
http://newsstand.clemson.edu/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/2020-Palmetto-Poll-Results.pdf
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
David__77
(23,423 posts)I mean, it makes sense that they would. There's just no crosstabs or other information to indicate that.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
Mike Nelson
(9,960 posts)...seems large, to me. I wonder if the sake people were asked on the 17th and 25th? And, did it include Republicans - as they are voting in "open" primary.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
honest.abe
(8,679 posts)This was conducted by Clemson University. Also, I think they didnt inquire about political party. Just if they were likely voters. Which makes sense since its an open primary.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Mike Nelson
(9,960 posts)... thank you!
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
OliverQ
(3,363 posts)But then none of that matters here since this is a Biden echo chamber.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
colsohlibgal
(5,275 posts)My politics line up with both Warren and Bernie but Lean Warren because I think Bernie, like Biden are too old.....men who would hit their 80s in their first term. As I think Ive stated before I idolized my Paternal Grandfather but at 80 he was not as sharp as he was and more easily confused.....and Joe has had issues at times with Gaffes and confusion. Again I think he is a decent man, as is Bernie but the age thing troubles me.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden