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Joe BidenCongratulations to our presumptive Democratic nominee, Joe Biden!
 

honest.abe

(8,679 posts)
Wed Feb 26, 2020, 01:21 PM Feb 2020

SC SHOCK POLL! Clemson University Palmetto Poll: Biden 35% Sanders 13%

The poll had 650 respondents, with a mixed survey methodology of telephone respondents, online and online panel voters. It was conducted by a professional polling firm of voters statewide from Feb. 17-25. The survey has a margin of error of plus-minus 3.8%, and a 95% confidence level for the results.

Voters in the poll were asked: "If the election were held today, for whom would you vote?"

- Joe Biden 35%
- Tom Steyer 17%
- Bernie Sanders 13%
- Elizabeth Warren 8%
- Pete Buttigieg 8%
- Amy Klobuchar 4%
- Tulsi Gabbard 2%
- Unsure 12%

more: https://www.wyff4.com/article/clemsons-university-palmetto-poll-results-released-ahead-of-saturdays-primary/31116432
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
68 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
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SC SHOCK POLL! Clemson University Palmetto Poll: Biden 35% Sanders 13% (Original Post) honest.abe Feb 2020 OP
Yep, Biden is definitely in the polling lead. David__77 Feb 2020 #1
only 3% of poll were aged 18-25 - college students not represented & they have been active womanofthehills Feb 2020 #41
That actually is odd - if they didn't reweight. David__77 Feb 2020 #45
Good grief these are survey professionals. I think they understand the need for reweighting. honest.abe Feb 2020 #47
OK. David__77 Feb 2020 #57
My appologies. It appears they did not weight the data. honest.abe Feb 2020 #59
No problem at all! David__77 Feb 2020 #61
KR! And, of course they're not asking repubs Cha Feb 2020 #2
Yep. I wish SC wasn't an open primary. SunSeeker Feb 2020 #10
And of course, it's labeled as SHOCKING!!! LakeArenal Feb 2020 #52
This message was self-deleted by its author BlueTillIDie Feb 2020 #3
I think it was just likely voters. honest.abe Feb 2020 #4
This message was self-deleted by its author BlueTillIDie Feb 2020 #8
This was posted on twitter that gives a few more details. honest.abe Feb 2020 #12
This message was self-deleted by its author BlueTillIDie Feb 2020 #13
"grain of salt" ?? honest.abe Feb 2020 #16
This message was self-deleted by its author BlueTillIDie Feb 2020 #17
They improved it. honest.abe Feb 2020 #18
This message was self-deleted by its author BlueTillIDie Feb 2020 #19
Ok I thought they had actually improved it from reading that article I posted. honest.abe Feb 2020 #20
I now fully believe that Biden will win SC, possibly a large win, but to call a B/C rated poll the Celerity Feb 2020 #26
Ok.. I stand corrected. honest.abe Feb 2020 #27
all good!! cheers Celerity Feb 2020 #28
That is not correct. The snip below is from the PDF linked from the article. redqueen Feb 2020 #21
Some of it is same. Looks like the dates and MOE are off a bit. honest.abe Feb 2020 #22
The image from Twitter says nothing about online respondents. That's a big difference. redqueen Feb 2020 #23
Online panel voters are usually people who get compensation for answering questions womanofthehills Feb 2020 #50
It was mostly a people over 40 poll womanofthehills Feb 2020 #42
12% unsure Democrats Ascendant Feb 2020 #5
Message auto-removed Name removed Feb 2020 #6
I know. That is another shocker. honest.abe Feb 2020 #9
We will all owe Steyer a round! Even if he could in reality buy us the brewery!!! Celerity Feb 2020 #31
Welcome to DU wryter2000 Feb 2020 #49
Why is Gabbard getting 2% in my party??? Gamecock Lefty Feb 2020 #7
This message was self-deleted by its author BlueTillIDie Feb 2020 #11
Maybe they managed to poll all 7 of her supporters in SC. TwilightZone Feb 2020 #14
Maybe because we are a BIG TENT Moderateguy Feb 2020 #15
Independents and Republicans womanofthehills Feb 2020 #43
SC a state that has not gone D for president since 1976 mikeysnot Feb 2020 #24
LOL.. I knew this was coming. honest.abe Feb 2020 #25
reread my post mikeysnot Feb 2020 #64
For what purpose? Seems out of place to be discussing Republicans in this context. honest.abe Feb 2020 #66
This is a primary, not a general election. TwilightZone Feb 2020 #32
When and where did i hear this before.... mikeysnot Feb 2020 #65
a fact that's only relevant during trivia night at your favorite bar. wyldwolf Feb 2020 #33
I see SC as more of a referendum than anything else Politicub Feb 2020 #34
The important thing is that you minimize any state that doesn't fit your narrative. LanternWaste Feb 2020 #67
An excellent showing for Biden Politicub Feb 2020 #29
Yes!!! Dennis Donovan Feb 2020 #30
What's the "Shock" part? maxsolomon Feb 2020 #35
Biden "left for dead" leading by 18 points and "front runner" Bernie in a distant third. honest.abe Feb 2020 #36
Super Tuesday is where this will all shake out. maxsolomon Feb 2020 #37
I wished none of our 70+ candidates was running. honest.abe Feb 2020 #38
My dream ticket would be Biden/Harris tavernier Feb 2020 #40
Tide Pod challenge voters are the BEST!!!! LanternWaste Feb 2020 #68
But they did not include the young in this poll and they go for Bernie womanofthehills Feb 2020 #44
That was the demographics of the people they randomly called. The cant control that. honest.abe Feb 2020 #48
They claim to be using online panels - I would think they could control it there womanofthehills Feb 2020 #51
My appologies it appears they did not weight the data. honest.abe Feb 2020 #60
Only 3% of those polled were under 25... HopeAgain Feb 2020 #39
Same thing with the PPP poll - 66% were over 46 yrs old - something fishy womanofthehills Feb 2020 #46
Nice catch! Bumperstickers Feb 2020 #56
They could have reweighted the responses. There's nothing to indicate if they did. David__77 Feb 2020 #58
The range of days... Mike Nelson Feb 2020 #53
It takes time to do these polls if you dont have a large operation. honest.abe Feb 2020 #54
Ok Mike Nelson Feb 2020 #55
Major outlier and not a particularly great poll. OliverQ Feb 2020 #62
This colsohlibgal Feb 2020 #63
 

David__77

(23,423 posts)
1. Yep, Biden is definitely in the polling lead.
Wed Feb 26, 2020, 01:24 PM
Feb 2020

...

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided
 

womanofthehills

(8,721 posts)
41. only 3% of poll were aged 18-25 - college students not represented & they have been active
Wed Feb 26, 2020, 04:11 PM
Feb 2020

84% or people polled were over age 41


If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided
 

David__77

(23,423 posts)
45. That actually is odd - if they didn't reweight.
Wed Feb 26, 2020, 04:19 PM
Feb 2020

I mean it's all good to get an unbalanced sample provided that some sort of reweighting of responses is done. I don't see reference reweighting at http://newsstand.clemson.edu/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/2020-Palmetto-Poll-Results.pdf.

I doubt that 55+ age group will account for 64% of the total electorate. I think it would that group would account for around 46% of the total if things are roughly aligned with this 2016 CNN exit poll: https://www.cnn.com/election/2016/primaries/polls/sc/dem

In any event, we shall see soon enough on results.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided
 

honest.abe

(8,679 posts)
47. Good grief these are survey professionals. I think they understand the need for reweighting.
Wed Feb 26, 2020, 04:37 PM
Feb 2020

That is standard procedure.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

David__77

(23,423 posts)
57. OK.
Wed Feb 26, 2020, 06:07 PM
Feb 2020

I don't know - there are no cross-tabs with which that can be readily determined. The use of the phrase "respondents" in the narrative on the results seems like perhaps they didn't do it.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided
 

honest.abe

(8,679 posts)
59. My appologies. It appears they did not weight the data.
Wed Feb 26, 2020, 08:58 PM
Feb 2020
The results of the survey were not weighted for age, sex or ethnicity, pollsters said. Three percent of respondents were under 25, 14 percent were under 25, 20 percent were under 54, 21 percent were under 64, and 43 percent were 65 or older.

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/484723-biden-leads-by-18-points-in-south-carolina-poll
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

David__77

(23,423 posts)
61. No problem at all!
Wed Feb 26, 2020, 09:38 PM
Feb 2020

In this case, it wasn't me trying to engage in wishful thinking so much as being interested. In my work, I design and deploy surveys in another area of research, and could imagine that a researcher might think something like "well, we got a statistically valid random sample, and we should not weight it because we simply do not know what the true population will be." Or something like that... I think that sometimes researchers get sidetracked by a certain dogmatism about concepts like statistical precision, when a "reality check" might be useful. Anyways, thank you for letting me know!

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided
 

Cha

(297,360 posts)
2. KR! And, of course they're not asking repubs
Wed Feb 26, 2020, 01:25 PM
Feb 2020
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

SunSeeker

(51,576 posts)
10. Yep. I wish SC wasn't an open primary.
Wed Feb 26, 2020, 01:30 PM
Feb 2020

There should be no open primaries. Why invite ratfucking?

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

LakeArenal

(28,827 posts)
52. And of course, it's labeled as SHOCKING!!!
Wed Feb 26, 2020, 05:12 PM
Feb 2020

Jay Zeus H cripes.

I’m not shocked. Pleased. Happy.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

Response to honest.abe (Original post)

 

honest.abe

(8,679 posts)
4. I think it was just likely voters.
Wed Feb 26, 2020, 01:27 PM
Feb 2020

No mention of party affiliation.. afaik.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

Response to honest.abe (Reply #4)

Response to honest.abe (Reply #12)

Response to honest.abe (Reply #16)

Response to honest.abe (Reply #16)

 

honest.abe

(8,679 posts)
20. Ok I thought they had actually improved it from reading that article I posted.
Wed Feb 26, 2020, 01:49 PM
Feb 2020

Anyway yes, I am sure its good news for Biden.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

Celerity

(43,422 posts)
26. I now fully believe that Biden will win SC, possibly a large win, but to call a B/C rated poll the
Wed Feb 26, 2020, 02:14 PM
Feb 2020

'gold standard' is problematic.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

honest.abe

(8,679 posts)
27. Ok.. I stand corrected.
Wed Feb 26, 2020, 02:15 PM
Feb 2020

I thought they were.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

redqueen

(115,103 posts)
21. That is not correct. The snip below is from the PDF linked from the article.
Wed Feb 26, 2020, 01:55 PM
Feb 2020
The Palmetto Survey was of 650 respondents, with a mixed survey methodology of telephone respondents, online and online panel voters. It was conducted by a professional polling firm of voters statewide from February 17-25. The survey has a margin of error of +/- 3.8%, and a 95% confidence level for the results. The demographic profile is as follows:


What I found most interesting is this part: "online and online panel voters"

Anyone know what that means?
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided
 

honest.abe

(8,679 posts)
22. Some of it is same. Looks like the dates and MOE are off a bit.
Wed Feb 26, 2020, 01:57 PM
Feb 2020

How do you know for sure which one is correct?

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

redqueen

(115,103 posts)
23. The image from Twitter says nothing about online respondents. That's a big difference.
Wed Feb 26, 2020, 02:00 PM
Feb 2020

I know this is correct because it is linked from the article.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided
 

womanofthehills

(8,721 posts)
50. Online panel voters are usually people who get compensation for answering questions
Wed Feb 26, 2020, 05:05 PM
Feb 2020
https://www.aapor.org/Education-Resources/Election-Polling-Resources/Online-Panels.aspx

Online Panels
An online panel is a sample of persons who have agreed to complete surveys via the Internet. Although a few online panels in the United States and Europe recruit their members from probability samples (randomly selected addresses or telephone numbers), most online panels use other methods of recruitment.

The vast majority of online panels in the U.S. are made up of volunteers who were recruited online and who receive some form of compensation for completing surveys, such as small amounts of money or frequent flyer miles.




Online panels are a popular tool for data collection and they have proven their value for many purposes. In fact, online surveys outperformed live telephone polls in forecasting the outcome of the 2012 election. Although they did not do so well in 2014 they again were on par with live telephone in 2016. In addition, rigorous evaluations have found that volunteer online panels are less representative of the general population than probability samples. Still, online panels will doubtless play a growing role in political polls done in the next few years.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided
 

womanofthehills

(8,721 posts)
42. It was mostly a people over 40 poll
Wed Feb 26, 2020, 04:14 PM
Feb 2020
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided
 
5. 12% unsure
Wed Feb 26, 2020, 01:28 PM
Feb 2020

Seems SC has largely made up its mind in comparison to the other early states.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

Response to honest.abe (Original post)

 

honest.abe

(8,679 posts)
9. I know. That is another shocker.
Wed Feb 26, 2020, 01:30 PM
Feb 2020

If Bernie finishes third or fourth he will take big hit on Super Tuesday.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

Celerity

(43,422 posts)
31. We will all owe Steyer a round! Even if he could in reality buy us the brewery!!!
Wed Feb 26, 2020, 02:22 PM
Feb 2020
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

Gamecock Lefty

(700 posts)
7. Why is Gabbard getting 2% in my party???
Wed Feb 26, 2020, 01:28 PM
Feb 2020

She should be at ZERO %!

My humble opinion only.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

Response to Gamecock Lefty (Reply #7)

 

TwilightZone

(25,472 posts)
14. Maybe they managed to poll all 7 of her supporters in SC.
Wed Feb 26, 2020, 01:42 PM
Feb 2020
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

Moderateguy

(945 posts)
15. Maybe because we are a BIG TENT
Wed Feb 26, 2020, 01:42 PM
Feb 2020

and allow for a diversity of opinions in our party unlike the other party?

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided
 

womanofthehills

(8,721 posts)
43. Independents and Republicans
Wed Feb 26, 2020, 04:15 PM
Feb 2020
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided
 

mikeysnot

(4,757 posts)
24. SC a state that has not gone D for president since 1976
Wed Feb 26, 2020, 02:07 PM
Feb 2020

A state that gave us these hacks.

lindsey graham
james demint
mark sanford
joe wilson
strom thurmund
trey gowdy



If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided
 

honest.abe

(8,679 posts)
25. LOL.. I knew this was coming.
Wed Feb 26, 2020, 02:09 PM
Feb 2020

Do you not care about good Democrats in Red states? Shall we just throw them out and only allow Democrats in Blue states to vote in our primary? That is not how it works.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

mikeysnot

(4,757 posts)
64. reread my post
Thu Feb 27, 2020, 04:07 PM
Feb 2020

I stated no such thing?

I was just pointing out ... facts?

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided
 

honest.abe

(8,679 posts)
66. For what purpose? Seems out of place to be discussing Republicans in this context.
Thu Feb 27, 2020, 04:33 PM
Feb 2020

Unless you are trying to make the point I was referencing.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

TwilightZone

(25,472 posts)
32. This is a primary, not a general election.
Wed Feb 26, 2020, 02:22 PM
Feb 2020

All delegates matter, even one from states you don't like.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

mikeysnot

(4,757 posts)
65. When and where did i hear this before....
Thu Feb 27, 2020, 04:07 PM
Feb 2020

hmmmmmm.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided
 

wyldwolf

(43,867 posts)
33. a fact that's only relevant during trivia night at your favorite bar.
Wed Feb 26, 2020, 02:22 PM
Feb 2020
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

Politicub

(12,165 posts)
34. I see SC as more of a referendum than anything else
Wed Feb 26, 2020, 02:24 PM
Feb 2020

The state is not in play for the general. I could be wrong.

But it’s a good place in which to take the temperature of voters’ preferences in a diverse yet conservative state.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

LanternWaste

(37,748 posts)
67. The important thing is that you minimize any state that doesn't fit your narrative.
Thu Feb 27, 2020, 04:44 PM
Feb 2020

And minimize them with both the irrelevance and petulance you illustrate here (as well as some D- grammar thrown in).

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

Politicub

(12,165 posts)
29. An excellent showing for Biden
Wed Feb 26, 2020, 02:21 PM
Feb 2020

He needs to decisively take SC, and it is looking like it is breaking his way.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

maxsolomon

(33,345 posts)
35. What's the "Shock" part?
Wed Feb 26, 2020, 03:35 PM
Feb 2020

Biden was expected to do well in SC.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided
 

honest.abe

(8,679 posts)
36. Biden "left for dead" leading by 18 points and "front runner" Bernie in a distant third.
Wed Feb 26, 2020, 03:40 PM
Feb 2020

I think that would be considered a "shock" by most folks paying attention to this primary.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

maxsolomon

(33,345 posts)
37. Super Tuesday is where this will all shake out.
Wed Feb 26, 2020, 03:43 PM
Feb 2020

I don't want either of them to be the nominee, as I am DU's foremost Ageist.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided
 

honest.abe

(8,679 posts)
38. I wished none of our 70+ candidates was running.
Wed Feb 26, 2020, 03:52 PM
Feb 2020

My fav candidate was Kamala Harris. But given what we have to work with Joe is my guy now.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

tavernier

(12,393 posts)
40. My dream ticket would be Biden/Harris
Wed Feb 26, 2020, 03:58 PM
Feb 2020
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

LanternWaste

(37,748 posts)
68. Tide Pod challenge voters are the BEST!!!!
Thu Feb 27, 2020, 04:44 PM
Feb 2020
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

womanofthehills

(8,721 posts)
44. But they did not include the young in this poll and they go for Bernie
Wed Feb 26, 2020, 04:19 PM
Feb 2020

so this poll is not very valid except for how the older people of SC will vote.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided
 

honest.abe

(8,679 posts)
48. That was the demographics of the people they randomly called. The cant control that.
Wed Feb 26, 2020, 04:39 PM
Feb 2020

That always happens in polling. Once they have the data then they have to reweight based on typical voter patterns. That is standard procedure.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

womanofthehills

(8,721 posts)
51. They claim to be using online panels - I would think they could control it there
Wed Feb 26, 2020, 05:08 PM
Feb 2020
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided
 

honest.abe

(8,679 posts)
60. My appologies it appears they did not weight the data.
Wed Feb 26, 2020, 08:58 PM
Feb 2020
The results of the survey were not weighted for age, sex or ethnicity, pollsters said. Three percent of respondents were under 25, 14 percent were under 25, 20 percent were under 54, 21 percent were under 64, and 43 percent were 65 or older.

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/484723-biden-leads-by-18-points-in-south-carolina-poll
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

HopeAgain

(4,407 posts)
39. Only 3% of those polled were under 25...
Wed Feb 26, 2020, 03:53 PM
Feb 2020

seems a little off since that is his strongest demographic. 63% were baby boomers. That's only 36% of the people polled being under 54.
There's more than one way to skew a poll...

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided
 

womanofthehills

(8,721 posts)
46. Same thing with the PPP poll - 66% were over 46 yrs old - something fishy
Wed Feb 26, 2020, 04:24 PM
Feb 2020

So if 35% were l8 to 45 - maybe only 15% or less in this poll were under 25.


If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided
 

Bumperstickers

(199 posts)
56. Nice catch!
Wed Feb 26, 2020, 05:35 PM
Feb 2020

.64% of those polled were over 55, 40 and under 17%
Now we know why the poll was so far off from all the other SC polls.

Age:
18 – 25.............3%
26 – 40............14%
41 – 54...........20%
55 – 64...........21%
65 plus...........43%

http://newsstand.clemson.edu/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/2020-Palmetto-Poll-Results.pdf

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided
 

David__77

(23,423 posts)
58. They could have reweighted the responses. There's nothing to indicate if they did.
Wed Feb 26, 2020, 06:11 PM
Feb 2020

I mean, it makes sense that they would. There's just no crosstabs or other information to indicate that.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided
 

Mike Nelson

(9,960 posts)
53. The range of days...
Wed Feb 26, 2020, 05:27 PM
Feb 2020

...seems large, to me. I wonder if the sake people were asked on the 17th and 25th? And, did it include Republicans - as they are voting in "open" primary.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

honest.abe

(8,679 posts)
54. It takes time to do these polls if you dont have a large operation.
Wed Feb 26, 2020, 05:33 PM
Feb 2020

This was conducted by Clemson University. Also, I think they didnt inquire about political party. Just if they were likely voters. Which makes sense since its an open primary.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

OliverQ

(3,363 posts)
62. Major outlier and not a particularly great poll.
Wed Feb 26, 2020, 10:24 PM
Feb 2020

But then none of that matters here since this is a Biden echo chamber.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided
 

colsohlibgal

(5,275 posts)
63. This
Wed Feb 26, 2020, 11:21 PM
Feb 2020

My politics line up with both Warren and Bernie but Lean Warren because I think Bernie, like Biden are too old.....men who would hit their 80s in their first term. As I think I’ve stated before I idolized my Paternal Grandfather but at 80 he was not as sharp as he was and more easily confused.....and Joe has had issues at times with Gaffes and confusion. Again I think he is a decent man, as is Bernie but the age thing troubles me.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
Latest Discussions»Retired Forums»Democratic Primaries»SC SHOCK POLL! Clemson U...