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Joe BidenCongratulations to our presumptive Democratic nominee, Joe Biden!
 

MineralMan

(146,318 posts)
Wed Feb 26, 2020, 02:38 PM Feb 2020

It's funny that so many media people are referring to

yesterday's debate as the South Carolina debate. Yes, it was held just before the SC primary, but, it's also the last debate before Super Tuesday, when 14 states weigh in with their primaries.

I haven't checked the viewership for that debate, but a lot of viewers will be voting in a Super Tuesday state. So, as a debate, it will influence far more than just South Carolina.

I didn't watch it. In fact, I haven't watched any of the debates so far. I watch the news coverage the next morning to see what the news folks made of it. In reality that news coverage and the clips they show from the debates play a larger role in influencing voters than the debates themselves do.

We're coming down to the wire on the first real look we'll have at how the candidates are actually doing. The first two primary events were lily-white states. The third was in Nevada, which is a thing unto itself. Saturday, we'll hear from South Carolina, a state with a substantial African-American population. Four states which, in total, send fewer delegates to the convention than one state in the Super Tuesday primaries does. California and Texas will be the states to watch closely, but the other 12 states who hold primaries on March 3, will also be very interesting.

Why? Because there's a new name on the ballot in all of those 14 states, and Mike Bloomberg is going to have an effect in all of them.. He won't get the most votes in any of them, but he'll be viable in a number of them or even all of them, earning his own slate of allocated delegates.

Super Tuesday is the first set of primaries that have all of the interesting candidates on the ballot. Those 14 states represent 28% of the nation's states. On March 4, no doubt, a number of current candidates will announce that they are suspending their campaigns. On March 5, we'll have only three or four candidates left running. We'll finally be in a competition that makes sense. No more votes for non-viable candidates after that. Everyone in the remaining primaries will have to decide from a smaller group of candidates, and that's a good thing.

Patience is a virtue. Truly it is. On March 4 and thereafter, patience will be rewarded.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
23 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
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It's funny that so many media people are referring to (Original Post) MineralMan Feb 2020 OP
This message was self-deleted by its author BlueTillIDie Feb 2020 #1
After Super Tuesday less than 40% of the outstanding delegates will have been awarded Moderateguy Feb 2020 #5
This message was self-deleted by its author BlueTillIDie Feb 2020 #7
I agree that the field will need to narrow significantly Moderateguy Feb 2020 #10
Right. MineralMan Feb 2020 #13
We'll see. Personally, I think the field MineralMan Feb 2020 #9
This message was self-deleted by its author BlueTillIDie Feb 2020 #11
Your top three will most likely Wellstone ruled Feb 2020 #17
Is this the end to debates until after the . . . . Iliyah Feb 2020 #2
I think there is 1 more Moderateguy Feb 2020 #3
No. There will be another debate on March 15, the 11th debate. MineralMan Feb 2020 #4
This message was self-deleted by its author BlueTillIDie Feb 2020 #8
I will be voting in California on Super Tuesday by mail. If Biden wins South Carolina by still_one Feb 2020 #6
Wouldn't it be too late for a mail in ballot for ST after SC? Moderateguy Feb 2020 #12
I wouldn't wait if I lived there. MineralMan Feb 2020 #14
My reasoning is simple. If Biden wins by a reasonable margin in South Carolina, that demonstrates still_one Feb 2020 #16
No. March 3 is Super Tuesday, and they use the post mark. In addition, I can take the ballot to still_one Feb 2020 #15
don't understand your rationale on that stopdiggin Feb 2020 #18
No I won't vote for someone plling less than double digits, and in my original response, I didn't still_one Feb 2020 #20
I like some of his adds stopdiggin Feb 2020 #21
I am in California and surprisingly haven't seen any of his ads. Plenty of Bloomberg and Steyer still_one Feb 2020 #22
kick Dawson Leery Feb 2020 #19
re:"funny..referring to it as the SC debate. Yes, it was held just before the SC primary, but..." thesquanderer Feb 2020 #23

Response to MineralMan (Original post)

 

Moderateguy

(945 posts)
5. After Super Tuesday less than 40% of the outstanding delegates will have been awarded
Wed Feb 26, 2020, 02:43 PM
Feb 2020

You do not want the other 60% to have a say?

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

Response to Moderateguy (Reply #5)

 

Moderateguy

(945 posts)
10. I agree that the field will need to narrow significantly
Wed Feb 26, 2020, 02:49 PM
Feb 2020

but I do not agree that either all of the moderate or all of the progressive candidates need to drop out in favor of the other side

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided
 

MineralMan

(146,318 posts)
13. Right.
Wed Feb 26, 2020, 02:54 PM
Feb 2020

There will be more than one ballot at the convention.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

MineralMan

(146,318 posts)
9. We'll see. Personally, I think the field
Wed Feb 26, 2020, 02:48 PM
Feb 2020

will be down to three or four on March 5, two days after Super Tuesday. I think Warren will be out. Buttigieg might be out, as well, if he doesn't collect many delegates from Super Tuesday. Who will be left?

Well:

Sanders
Biden
Bloomberg
(?Buttigieg?)

All the rest will be non-viable, and can go home. I hope each who drops out endorses one of the remaining candidates.

On March 15, there will be one more debate. I am hoping there are only three candidates in that debate, but Buttigieg might also still be in the race. Mayor Pete is going to fade on Super Tuesday.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

Response to MineralMan (Reply #9)

 

Wellstone ruled

(34,661 posts)
17. Your top three will most likely
Wed Feb 26, 2020, 03:02 PM
Feb 2020

be standing by that weekend.

Like you,did the same when it came to those so called debates. Long on talk,short on Policy that can be legislated.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

Iliyah

(25,111 posts)
2. Is this the end to debates until after the . . . .
Wed Feb 26, 2020, 02:41 PM
Feb 2020

nominations?

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

Moderateguy

(945 posts)
3. I think there is 1 more
Wed Feb 26, 2020, 02:42 PM
Feb 2020
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided
 

MineralMan

(146,318 posts)
4. No. There will be another debate on March 15, the 11th debate.
Wed Feb 26, 2020, 02:43 PM
Feb 2020

It will have even fewer candidates participating than the last one.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

Response to MineralMan (Reply #4)

 

still_one

(92,257 posts)
6. I will be voting in California on Super Tuesday by mail. If Biden wins South Carolina by
Wed Feb 26, 2020, 02:43 PM
Feb 2020

5 or more points, I will be voting for Biden in Super Tuesday, and believe that will propel him into Super Tuesday, and diminish the Bloomberg effect.

If however, he only takes South Carolina by 2 or 3 points, or even loses, then I will be looking at the other non-Bernie candidates as my selection for Super Tuesday

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

Moderateguy

(945 posts)
12. Wouldn't it be too late for a mail in ballot for ST after SC?
Wed Feb 26, 2020, 02:51 PM
Feb 2020
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided
 

MineralMan

(146,318 posts)
14. I wouldn't wait if I lived there.
Wed Feb 26, 2020, 02:55 PM
Feb 2020
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

still_one

(92,257 posts)
16. My reasoning is simple. If Biden wins by a reasonable margin in South Carolina, that demonstrates
Wed Feb 26, 2020, 03:01 PM
Feb 2020

his viability to me going into Super Tuesday.

If he is unable to do that in a state where Bloomberg isn't on the ballot, he is in trouble in my opinion


If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

still_one

(92,257 posts)
15. No. March 3 is Super Tuesday, and they use the post mark. In addition, I can take the ballot to
Wed Feb 26, 2020, 02:55 PM
Feb 2020

any polling place through election day, and submit it

California has one of the most flexible states to give every opportunity for people who want to vote, to do it


If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

stopdiggin

(11,320 posts)
18. don't understand your rationale on that
Wed Feb 26, 2020, 03:11 PM
Feb 2020

(although you're certainly free to employ any you wish)

I see no one that looks more like a Sanders stopper than Biden at this point.
Bloomberg looked (for about 2 NY minutes) like he might have some traction. But then we got exposed to the man in real life .. and talk about feet of clay! What a beat down! So I kind of chalked that up to the newest shiny penny effect. Would you really pass over Biden to look at someone that might be polling less than double digits? Because Biden didn't win big enough?

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided
 

still_one

(92,257 posts)
20. No I won't vote for someone plling less than double digits, and in my original response, I didn't
Wed Feb 26, 2020, 03:24 PM
Feb 2020

exclude Biden either if he loses South Carolina, which I don't think he will, but if he did, I will need to see if that changes the dynamics of the non-Bernie block. If it doesn't, then I will be voting for Biden.

If Biden does poorly in South Carolina, I think the primaries are over, and Sanders is the nominee

Bloomberg is hurting Biden terribly. You argue he is the shiny new penny, but I think his ads have more effect than the debates

If Bloomberg dropped out of Super Tuesday, and those votes went to Biden, it would be a competitive race between Biden and Sanders

Barring that happening, it looks like Sanders will be the nominee






If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

stopdiggin

(11,320 posts)
21. I like some of his adds
Wed Feb 26, 2020, 03:40 PM
Feb 2020

some of his past statements, and actions .... Whew!

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided
 

still_one

(92,257 posts)
22. I am in California and surprisingly haven't seen any of his ads. Plenty of Bloomberg and Steyer
Wed Feb 26, 2020, 04:01 PM
Feb 2020

though

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

thesquanderer

(11,990 posts)
23. re:"funny..referring to it as the SC debate. Yes, it was held just before the SC primary, but..."
Wed Feb 26, 2020, 08:10 PM
Feb 2020

Well, it was also held IN South Carolina.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
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