Democratic Primaries
Related: About this forumIt's funny that so many media people are referring to
yesterday's debate as the South Carolina debate. Yes, it was held just before the SC primary, but, it's also the last debate before Super Tuesday, when 14 states weigh in with their primaries.
I haven't checked the viewership for that debate, but a lot of viewers will be voting in a Super Tuesday state. So, as a debate, it will influence far more than just South Carolina.
I didn't watch it. In fact, I haven't watched any of the debates so far. I watch the news coverage the next morning to see what the news folks made of it. In reality that news coverage and the clips they show from the debates play a larger role in influencing voters than the debates themselves do.
We're coming down to the wire on the first real look we'll have at how the candidates are actually doing. The first two primary events were lily-white states. The third was in Nevada, which is a thing unto itself. Saturday, we'll hear from South Carolina, a state with a substantial African-American population. Four states which, in total, send fewer delegates to the convention than one state in the Super Tuesday primaries does. California and Texas will be the states to watch closely, but the other 12 states who hold primaries on March 3, will also be very interesting.
Why? Because there's a new name on the ballot in all of those 14 states, and Mike Bloomberg is going to have an effect in all of them.. He won't get the most votes in any of them, but he'll be viable in a number of them or even all of them, earning his own slate of allocated delegates.
Super Tuesday is the first set of primaries that have all of the interesting candidates on the ballot. Those 14 states represent 28% of the nation's states. On March 4, no doubt, a number of current candidates will announce that they are suspending their campaigns. On March 5, we'll have only three or four candidates left running. We'll finally be in a competition that makes sense. No more votes for non-viable candidates after that. Everyone in the remaining primaries will have to decide from a smaller group of candidates, and that's a good thing.
Patience is a virtue. Truly it is. On March 4 and thereafter, patience will be rewarded.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Response to MineralMan (Original post)
BlueTillIDie This message was self-deleted by its author.
Moderateguy
(945 posts)You do not want the other 60% to have a say?
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
Response to Moderateguy (Reply #5)
BlueTillIDie This message was self-deleted by its author.
Moderateguy
(945 posts)but I do not agree that either all of the moderate or all of the progressive candidates need to drop out in favor of the other side
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
MineralMan
(146,318 posts)There will be more than one ballot at the convention.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
MineralMan
(146,318 posts)will be down to three or four on March 5, two days after Super Tuesday. I think Warren will be out. Buttigieg might be out, as well, if he doesn't collect many delegates from Super Tuesday. Who will be left?
Well:
Sanders
Biden
Bloomberg
(?Buttigieg?)
All the rest will be non-viable, and can go home. I hope each who drops out endorses one of the remaining candidates.
On March 15, there will be one more debate. I am hoping there are only three candidates in that debate, but Buttigieg might also still be in the race. Mayor Pete is going to fade on Super Tuesday.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Response to MineralMan (Reply #9)
BlueTillIDie This message was self-deleted by its author.
Wellstone ruled
(34,661 posts)be standing by that weekend.
Like you,did the same when it came to those so called debates. Long on talk,short on Policy that can be legislated.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Iliyah
(25,111 posts)nominations?
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Moderateguy
(945 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
MineralMan
(146,318 posts)It will have even fewer candidates participating than the last one.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Response to MineralMan (Reply #4)
BlueTillIDie This message was self-deleted by its author.
still_one
(92,257 posts)5 or more points, I will be voting for Biden in Super Tuesday, and believe that will propel him into Super Tuesday, and diminish the Bloomberg effect.
If however, he only takes South Carolina by 2 or 3 points, or even loses, then I will be looking at the other non-Bernie candidates as my selection for Super Tuesday
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Moderateguy
(945 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
MineralMan
(146,318 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
still_one
(92,257 posts)his viability to me going into Super Tuesday.
If he is unable to do that in a state where Bloomberg isn't on the ballot, he is in trouble in my opinion
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
still_one
(92,257 posts)any polling place through election day, and submit it
California has one of the most flexible states to give every opportunity for people who want to vote, to do it
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
stopdiggin
(11,320 posts)(although you're certainly free to employ any you wish)
I see no one that looks more like a Sanders stopper than Biden at this point.
Bloomberg looked (for about 2 NY minutes) like he might have some traction. But then we got exposed to the man in real life .. and talk about feet of clay! What a beat down! So I kind of chalked that up to the newest shiny penny effect. Would you really pass over Biden to look at someone that might be polling less than double digits? Because Biden didn't win big enough?
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
still_one
(92,257 posts)exclude Biden either if he loses South Carolina, which I don't think he will, but if he did, I will need to see if that changes the dynamics of the non-Bernie block. If it doesn't, then I will be voting for Biden.
If Biden does poorly in South Carolina, I think the primaries are over, and Sanders is the nominee
Bloomberg is hurting Biden terribly. You argue he is the shiny new penny, but I think his ads have more effect than the debates
If Bloomberg dropped out of Super Tuesday, and those votes went to Biden, it would be a competitive race between Biden and Sanders
Barring that happening, it looks like Sanders will be the nominee
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
stopdiggin
(11,320 posts)some of his past statements, and actions .... Whew!
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
still_one
(92,257 posts)though
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Dawson Leery
(19,348 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
thesquanderer
(11,990 posts)Well, it was also held IN South Carolina.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden