Though it might not feel like it, the Democratic presidential race has only just begun. Nonetheless, many pundits and prognosticators are already focused on Pennsylvania, confidently predicting that Democrats who support a ban on fracking will lose the state, and hence the election, to Donald Trump. It’s a common refrain, but there is zero evidence to support it -- and plenty of evidence that Pennsylvania voters have backed anti-fracking candidates.

This talking point says that by supporting a ban on fracking, Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren play right into Trump’s hands. The same pitch is even coming from Democrats like Lt. Governor John Fetterman. But this falls apart when you look at what actual voters say.

A recent Franklin & Marshall poll found that more Pennsylvania voters actually support a fracking ban than oppose the idea (48 to 39 percent). And in previous years, that same poll has shown that voters have dramatically shifted, with a solid majority saying the environmental costs of drilling outweigh the supposed economic benefits.

Of course, fossil fuel companies tout jobs when they talk about fracking’s importance to Pennsylvania. What they don’t tell you is that a relatively small number of Pennsylvanians work in the shale industry-- and that number is shrinking, thanks to the industry’s inability to turn a profit from gas drilling. Hundreds of drilling jobs were lost last year in the Pittsburgh area, and 2020 is not looking to be any more favorable, with very few new wells being drilled.

Polls are just one part of the story. The real question is whether this has been tested at the ballot box. It turns out that Pennsylvania voters are responding to anti-fracking candidates … by electing them. Progressive Democrats like Summer Lee and Sara Innamorato won seats in 2018 by speaking out against fracking’s toll on the health and safety of the communities they represent. The grassroots campaign against the Mariner East pipelines in Delaware and Chester Counties mobilized support for candidates like Danielle Friel Otten, who stood up to the industry. And last year, intense opposition to local fracking projects in the Pittsburgh suburbs flipped town councils, putting anti-fracking majorities in charge. In one case, anti-fracking candidates in Franklin Park won by turning precincts where Trump won handily and turning them blue.