Democratic Primaries
Related: About this forumJoe Scarborogh: Biden turns in his best performance of the cycle
https://www.msnbc.com/morning-joe/watch/biden-turns-in-his-best-performance-of-the-cycle-joe-79457861507He also has a segment on ow Bloomberg is hurting Biden and what would happen to Biden's campaign if Bloomberg dropped out. He suggests that since Bloomberg got in the race because he saw Sanders and Warren tromping him, that if Biden wins big in SC that he should drop out Sunday morning so that Bidens lead in many states will be reinstated.
Joe considered Biden's strong debate performance and the Clyburn endorsement as a game changer.
https://www.msnbc.com/morning-joe/watch/what-20-race-would-mean-for-biden-if-bloomberg-dropped-out-79523397895
538 is also looking at what a big win by Biden would mean for the race.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-the-race-looks-like-if-biden-wins-or-doesnt-win-south-carolina/?yptr=yahoo
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But you can also see how momentum could start to turn against Sanders. By momentum, I dont mean something ineffable, but rather the shifts in the polls that could occur as the result of Super Tuesday, as well as decisions by other candidates to stay in the race or drop out.1
In the scenario above after a big South Carolina win Biden would be the plurality favorite in every Southern state on Super Tuesday, namely: Texas, North Carolina, Virginia, Tennessee, Alabama, Oklahoma and Arkansas. While Sanders would remain the favorite in every non-Southern state2 except Minnesota3 including critically California, where he has a huge polling lead and where 415 pledged delegates are at stake.
But even if Sanders racks up big margins in California, this isnt a great outcome for him from a delegate standpoint. Hed only be about 150 delegates ahead of Biden out of a total of 3,979 pledged delegates eventually to be awarded.
And from a narrative standpoint and the polling bounce that results from it it could be fairly bad for him. Sanders might not get very many wins in the Eastern and Central time zone states that the media will cover heavily early in the evening. And the wins Sanders would get would mostly be in white, liberal states where he was expected to win until California reports its results, but that creates its own problems for Sanders.
I'M SENDING JOR MY LAST 10 BUCKS IN MY ACCOUNT TODAY!!
BIDEN HAS THE MOJO(e)
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Just_Vote_Dem
(2,820 posts)GO JOE!
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Walleye
(31,101 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
jimfields33
(16,042 posts)Time will tell.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Iliyah
(25,111 posts)Voted for Congresswomen Auntie Maxine and VP Uncle Joe . . .
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
denem
(11,045 posts)His answer on Sanders and socialism was masterful.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
InAbLuEsTaTe
(24,123 posts)Bernie/Elizabeth or Elizabeth/Bernie 2020!!
Either way, they're stronger together & can't be bought!!
Jump on the Bernie Bandwagon & join The Revolution!!
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
denem
(11,045 posts)I don't like seeing any of our candidates stumble. I prefer them to be on their game, making the best case they can for their positions.
EDIT: the above does not include Mike Bloomberg. He skipped all the early debates, town halls and voters questions. He can stumble into a ditch as far as I am concerned. So, if he can pull himself out, fair enough, but I'm not rooting for him.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
InAbLuEsTaTe
(24,123 posts)Bernie/Elizabeth or Elizabeth/Bernie 2020!!
Either way, they're stronger together & can't be bought!!
Jump on the Bernie Bandwagon & join The Revolution!!
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
denem
(11,045 posts)Biden was ordinary in the debate - then again I thought Sanders was ordinary too, and 538's poll have him the clear winner.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
LanternWaste
(37,748 posts)Still, you deserve congrats!
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Happy Hoosier
(7,437 posts)I kept asking myself "Where has THIS guy been the last 6 months!?"
Can he keep it up? I might consider supporting him.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden