Democratic Primaries
Related: About this forum538 now predicts a 3 in 5 chance that no one wins on the first ballot-- caucus-like convention
1 in 4 chance for Bernie to win outright
1 in 7 chance for Biden to win outright
less than 1 in 100 chance for any of the others to win outright
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-primary-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo
So what happens is that to a large extent the convention will become like a caucus-- with inviable candidate thresholds etc, on subsequent ballots. There is one difference: superdelegates could play a role as well as on the second ballot there would be 764 (771?) delegates added to the pool-- which would presumably raise the threshold for winning. It might be interesting if superdelegates decided to sit out subsequent rounds, forcing the campaigns and their elected delegates to negotiate.
Updated:
1991 delegates required on first ballot
2375.5 delegates required on second ballot
source: ballotpedia
https://ballotpedia.org/Superdelegates_and_the_2020_Democratic_National_Convention
are these numbers correct?
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Moderateguy
(945 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
andym
(5,445 posts)so the superdelegates do raise the requirement.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Laelth
(32,017 posts)Here: https://www.democraticunderground.com/1287605395
-Laelth
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
andym
(5,445 posts)Impressive.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Politicub
(12,165 posts)I think it's only there as clickbait now.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden