Democratic Primaries
Related: About this forum538's forecast now has Sanders with only a 1 in 5 chance of having the majority of delegates
by the time we get to the convention. There's a 2/3 chance of a brokered convention. Sanders's current forecast national delegate lead as of their last update at 8:38 AM ET is less than 200, 1619 to 1426 for Biden.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-primary-forecast/
Doesn't look like Sanders will get a huge advantage in delegates out of California. 538 is currently estimating that Sanders will get 186, Biden 125, Warren 60, and Bloomberg 42.
So much for earlier predictions that Sanders will have such a huge win in CA that no other candidate will get any delegates, leaving him with an insurmountable lead.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
honest.abe
(8,678 posts)Pretty much guaranteeing Sanders will not win on the first ballot. In fact I think ST is going to be a wash with neither candidate gaining much on the other. That would be considered a huge victory for Biden.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
denem
(11,045 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
empedocles
(15,751 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
Response to highplainsdem (Original post)
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honest.abe
(8,678 posts)Things are changing rapidly.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
TwilightZone
(25,471 posts)I thought that was pretty interesting.
"Sanders is still the favorite to win a plurality of delegates, but those chances dropped slightly too, from 63 percent to 60 percent"
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-buttigieg-dropping-out-isnt-good-for-sanders/
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
DrToast
(6,414 posts)That would make things easier at the convention.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
TwilightZone
(25,471 posts)It would also, of course, cause Sanders and his supporters to do a 180. Again.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Me.
(35,454 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden