Democratic Primaries
Related: About this forumNYT: Biden's Delegate Lead Is Small, but Could Be Hard to Overcome
Bernie Sanders had an advantage on Super Tuesday he will not see again: many early votes cast before moderates coalesced around one candidate.
March 4, 2020
Updated 2:43 p.m. ET
Excerpt:
A three-point deficit is not a daunting handicap, certainly not when Mr. Biden was polling 20 points lower just a few days ago. But the Super Tuesday results do not augur well for Mr. Sanderss odds of pulling it off. He remained so competitive on Super Tuesday in part because of the large number of early and absentee voters who cast ballots before it became apparent that Mr. Biden was the viable moderate candidate.
The rest of the country may not be so favorable to Mr. Sanders, either. With Texas and California off the board, most of the remaining populous states lie in the East, where Mr. Sanders tended to lose, often badly. They also tend to have a below-average Latino share of the vote.
The states where Latino voters do represent roughly an average share of the electorate do not seem likely to be as favorable to Mr. Sanders as California or Texas. Arizona, New Mexico, New York and Florida allow only registered Democrats to vote, and therefore exclude a disproportionate number of young Hispanic voters many of them registered as independents who are likeliest to back Mr. Sanders. These closed primaries will exclude many young non-Latino voters as well, posing a broader challenge to Mr. Sanders that he did not overcome in 2016 and has not yet had to face in 2020.
Mr. Biden, in contrast, will continue to find many states in the next few weeks where black voters represent an average or above-average share of the population. He needs somewhere around 54 percent of the remaining delegates to claim a majority heading into the Democratic nomination, and his path to accomplishing this might be as simple as repeating the same outcome as Super Tuesday under a more favorable set of states, without the burden of early votes cast long before he emerged as the top rival to Mr. Sanders.
Read more (not sure if it's behind the paywall or not): https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/04/upshot/biden-sanders-delegate-count-analysis.html?action=click&module=Top%20Stories&pgtype=Homepage
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
ibegurpard
(16,685 posts)He didn't do as well in some of the states on Tuesday that he did last time.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
Progressive2020
(713 posts)The analysis in the article is probably correct, but it isn't over until it is over. Conventional political wisdom has been upended a lot in recent history. Very few people thought that Trump would win the Republican nomination and then get elected in 2016, yet he did.
Is Bernie done? Maybe. It seems probable. Yet strange things have occurred in politics. In any case, I am confident that we Democrats will rally around the nominee when the time comes. I have a positive feeling about that. We have just not reached that point yet. Not quite yet.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided