Democratic Primaries

Hortensis

(58,785 posts) Fri Apr 12, 2019, 09:10 AM Apr 2019

538: "How The Giant Democratic Primary Field Messes With Polls"

Some positive news is that with getting 1% in 3 polls a requirement for appearing in the debates, most respectable pollsters are trying to be fair by putting a lot more names on the polls than they would otherwise. Bad, of course, is that many are nevertheless being slighted.

When comparing polls — even when they’re from the same pollster — take care that the candidate rosters don’t differ too much. And the next time you see a surprising result, make sure you scan the list of candidates to make sure no big-name potential candidates are unduly included or excluded. Overall, the most useful 2020 polls are those that come as close as possible to the final list of candidates that will appear on ballots in less than a year’s time. Of course, the trick is guessing right.

But of course, first identify and ignore the many trash polls designed specifically and always to deceive.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

4 replies

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538: "How The Giant Democratic Primary Field Messes With Polls" (Original Post) Hortensis Apr 2019 OP

We cannot stop fake and shill polling BlueFlorida Apr 2019 #1

Yes, what I mentioned then deleted looks like one of the shill polls Hortensis Apr 2019 #2

The more real knowledge about how polling works gets out there, the better... Wounded Bear Apr 2019 #3

yes, and just looking to see which names are on the poll and Hortensis Apr 2019 #4

BlueFlorida

(1,532 posts)

1. We cannot stop fake and shill polling

Reply to Hortensis (Original post)

Fri Apr 12, 2019, 09:15 AM

Apr 2019

primarily by one candidate.

We will see that more and more.

On the California poll you mentioned in the OP, the information that it was an "Opt-in online poll" was buried in small print. A reputable organization would have disclosed it boldly.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

Hortensis

(58,785 posts)

2. Yes, what I mentioned then deleted looks like one of the shill polls

Reply to BlueFlorida (Reply #1)

Fri Apr 12, 2019, 09:42 AM

Apr 2019

we're only seeing the beginning of. There was a tsunami of them in 2015-2016. Most so far are shilling for one candidate, impossible to miss, but funders of ill intent will no doubt be pushing others, serving a menu of spoilers.

Real Clear Politics, a poll aggregator has Biden, still yet to announce, at 31%, second place Sanders at 21%. O'Rourke and Harris next at 9.1 and 9. The Hill-Harris poll has Biden 36, Sanders 19, and then Harris 9, O'R and Warren 7 and 6.

The primary season has yet to get off the ground. Most people polled now barely sorta recognize some of the names, others not.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/2020_democratic_presidential_nomination-6730.html

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

Wounded Bear

(58,706 posts)

3. The more real knowledge about how polling works gets out there, the better...

Reply to Hortensis (Original post)

Fri Apr 12, 2019, 10:54 AM

Apr 2019

It is so mind-numbingly early in the process that none of it much matters to begin with.

However, polls are data points that can help us flesh out reality. As long as we apply a few grains of salt we'll be OK for the most part.

Sure, process the info, but let's use some discretion.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

Hortensis

(58,785 posts)

4. yes, and just looking to see which names are on the poll and

Reply to Wounded Bear (Reply #3)

Fri Apr 12, 2019, 11:30 AM

Apr 2019

which are left off (and wondering why) is a simple initial check for honesty and quality.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

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