Biden 60 trump 38.

We have to run like we're behind.

I’m positive Positivity is just as valuable as the buzz kill Sanders supporters like to perpetrate.

I think Sanders is dangerous at this point.

Keep thinking you're winning by 22 points.

And yes I’m happy to retain positivity.

Be done with me okay. Your points will never persuade me. You seriously are a negative Sanders supporter. There is no room for your downerness for me.

Yippee. Joe is gonna be our nominee and he’s gonna crush trump in November.
Just as he’s crushing Bernie Sanders.

But no one is winning by 22 points. It will be a very close election. I'll bookmark it myself and come back the day after the election to either say you were right or "where did the 22 point spread go?"

That's unbelievable. Independents must be bailing on Trump en masse, even some of the right-leaners.

released a detailed poll a coupla weeks ago that had Biden up 52-34 against the Fuhrer among Indies. Wouldn't be surprised if it ended up 60-40 come November. We're looking at a blowout if we got those kinda numbers in the GE.

I think one reason why Drumpf's approval remains pretty high in the GOP is because many Republicans who can't stand the guy end up leaving the party and becoming Independents.

There has been real attrition in the Republican ranks. A good many people who thought 'how bad could it be?' or 'well, let's see what he does' now have their answer, and will not make the same mistake again. Sometimes I find myself reading a blind posted item, nodding in agreement, and finding it was written by Jenifer Ruben, or even Max Boot. Rick Wilson is damned near one of the tribe, even Bill Kristol makes sense more often than not nowadays. Does it well beyond the 'even a blind chicken pecks up a little corn' level.

We are going to need these people this year. Sanders repels them. Any appreciable concession to Sanders will mark us in the eyes of many as weak, and make them less willing to align with us. They mostly won't vote for Trump still, but they may just sit on their hands and not vote at all.






From Bernie’s perspective, dropping out of a race once you have no chance of winning is peculiar behavior that can only be explained by the work of a hidden hand. For most politicians, though, it is actually standard operating procedure. Only Sanders seems to think the normal thing to do once voters have made clear they don’t want to nominate you is to continue campaigning anyway."





"When things are not called by their right names, what is said cannot make sense. When what is said does not make sense, what is planned cannot succeed. When plans do not succeed, people become uneasy. When people are uneasy, punishments do not fit crimes. When punishments do not fit crimes, people cannot know where to put hand or foot."

And we could add to that list you started...Nichole Wallace, Steve Schmidt, Joe Scarborough, David Jolly, Richard Painter to name a few more...and that's just a short list on a single cable TV channel. These are "professional" Republicans who are diehard conservatives, so if that many are bailing it makes you wonder just how many regular rank-and-file average Joes are doing the same.

I'm under no illusions that these folks are suddenly all left-wing libbies who have seen the light...but they sure have seen the darkness that emanates from Trump and what he's turned the GOP into, and they want no part of it. Interesting thing is just as their defection has made me realize that not every con is the devil in disguise (just maybe 95% of 'em!) it seems to me that they also have come to realize that not all Democrats are socialists hellbent on confiscating their entire net worth. So I welcome them all as allies even if the arrangement turns out to be a temporary one.

Our customary squabbles may resume when the alien invasion is seen off....

just like Independence Day.

in 2016, people only knew him from the scripted "Apprentice" - now they know what an incompetent and narcissistic idiot he is.

If Bernie surrogates don't keep defecating on Democrats, Biden could win 40 states or more.

It would be interesting to see if the percentage of voters who self-ID as Republicans is dropping. I think you're right in that it is.

Also agreed on the blowout. 9% may not sound like much to many, but it's huge in a GE. Obama won by 7% vs. McCain and racked up 365 electoral votes.

have websites that you can visit where they list the current registration by party and also you can go back in time to see how it's changed over the months and years. It would be interesting to go back for some and see if Republican registration has indeed fallen off and Independent registration has gone up, but I haven't been sufficiently motivated to check it out yet. I did notice that Arizona recently updated their registration numbers and while Rs remained about the same Indies went down about 1% and Dems went up the same amount. So my gut says in many of these states registrations might be slowly shifting to the left which would be a hopeful sign.

Indies make up around 40% of the electorate on a national level so if Joe wound up with a 20-point advantage that would represent an 8% advantage in his favor just among that group which like you said is huge. But of course that is national and states are what really matter and each state has a different D to R to I ratio.

Are opening a hell of a lot of eyes.

This is a bludgeoning.

Link to tweet

Thanks, Nate, for emphasizing this.

National polling isn’t that helpful in determining who might win.

There is no such thing as a 9 point lead nationally or 25 point lead in swing counties. Both numbers are insulting to anyone who understands the real world distribution among one demographic after another, and the enormous benefit of incumbency.

I am amazed anyone here is swallowing this stuff. If we defeat Donald Trump it will be by life and death whisker.