When more Latinos are polled, Julin Castro's 2020 prospects rise

“If your polling lacks an accurate and robust Latino sample, your overall picture of the Democratic electorate is skewed,” said pollster Matt Barreto.


April 18, 2019, 3:15 PM EDT
By Suzanne Gamboa and Stephen Nuño-Pérez
For Julián Castro, the more Latinos surveyed in polls of the 2020 Democratic presidential field the better.

A poll released this week of national Latino voters had Castro, a former U.S. housing secretary and mayor of San Antonio, in fourth, with 45 percent. The poll was conducted by Latino Decisions for the National Association of Latino Elected Officials Educational Fund, a bipartisan group.

That was much better than Castro, 44, the only Latino in the 2020 race, has fared in other polls on the Democratic primary race that polled fewer Latinos.

Leading the poll was former Vice President Joe Biden (59 percent), followed by Sen. Bernie Sanders, independent from Vermont (58 percent) and former Texas Rep. Beto O’Rourke (48 percent). The three have led other polls of the crowded 2020 field.

The poll released Tuesday was "specifically designed to have a large and accurate sample of the Latino community, offered in English and Spanish, and weighted to match the correct census demographics," said Matt Barretto, founder and principle of Latino Decisions, which has done work for Democrats. "No other poll in 2019 which has reported a Latino sub-sample has done that."

Latino Decisions surveyed 606 Latino registered voters nationwide from April 9-15. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.9 percent.

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/latino/when-more-latinos-are-polled-juli-n-castro-s-2020-n995976