Democratic Primaries
Related: About this forumDemocrats' Two Roads to Beating Trump
The paths are through the Rust Belt and Sun Belt battlegrounds, which both parties consider most likely to decide the next presidential contest. New state-level polling from Gallup signals that Democrats face very different equations in those two regions.
In the key Rust Belt states that Trump captured in 2016, his job-approval rating during 2018 was consistently worse than his national average among whites with and without a college degree, according to detailed figures provided to me by Gallup. This suggests that the most straightforward path for Democrats to recapture these statesparticularly Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsinmay be to find a nominee who can reassure white voters who are cooling on Trump.
In almost all the Sun Belt states that Democrats are hoping to contest, by contrast, Trumps approval rating among both college- and non-college-educated white voters exceeds his national average, according to the same previously unpublished results. This suggests that to flip targets such as Arizona, Florida, and North Carolina, Democrats must find a nominee who can mobilize much greater turnout among those states large and growing populations of nonwhite voters.
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A logical response for Democrats might be to pick a 2020 ticket that combines one candidate best suited to reassure older whites cooling toward Trump with another best positioned to mobilize younger nonwhites who are more unreservedly hostile to him but less inclined to turn out. The new polling results signal that either path could beat Trumpbut that neither is guaranteed to do so.
https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2019/02/democrats-two-paths-beating-trump-2020/583846/
Biden-Harris?
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
CrossingTheRubicon
(731 posts)It makes sense.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
crazycatlady
(4,492 posts)Millions of women took to the streets the day after Trump took office. There's been all this women's rage during his administration.
The path to victory is with female voters. Put one of their own on the ticket.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
Me.
(35,454 posts)Again?
A woman won the last election and was denied the office, I want to see a woman in one of the 2 top positions.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
CrossingTheRubicon
(731 posts)We live in a Republic that elects presidents via the Electoral College. We lost. That's the reality.
It is a moral imperative to get Donald J Trump out of office, so I want to see the most electable ticket in the Electoral College.
I think that's Biden/Booker at this point.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Me.
(35,454 posts)and I've read that the jiggering that got him the electoral votes (don't have the links) were not on the up and up, so I will stay with my stance. Aside from that I am firm in my desire for a woman and will do all I can to see one as a candidate. And honestly, I don't see your wish ticket as the most electable.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
CrossingTheRubicon
(731 posts)I wanted HRC to win very badly.
I also strongly hoped that she would pick Elizabeth Warren for her VP. I think that ticket would have won in 2016. I was disappointed.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Me.
(35,454 posts)I think when the full story is told about this election, at some point in the future, we will find she did actually win. As for Joe B., he's too much of a gaffer for me. His comment about what a decent guy Pence is, irks me beyond belief. His beliefs as a Dominionist scare me and I wonder what he would do given the power Individual 1 currently has.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
CrossingTheRubicon
(731 posts)Joe Biden doesn't need to be rude to Mike Pense or Donald Trump to whip their asses.
He wins through the strength of his character.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Me.
(35,454 posts)Check In, In About 6 Months. Unlike many, I don't think he's going to run, if he was so compelled he'd be in by now.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
CrossingTheRubicon
(731 posts)That he will be our next president.
It is a very healing thought for this Democrat.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Me.
(35,454 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
CrossingTheRubicon
(731 posts)And it puts our best heir-apparent in the White House as VP. So a double win as far as I'm concerned.
Biden/Harris has a great deal of appeal as a ticket as well. Biden/Klobuchar would also appeal to me personally.
Anyone of these three are likely winning tickets.
Biden/Booker is by far my favorite team.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Bradshaw3
(7,522 posts)I agree with others that Biden-Harris would be a good bet. Harris, at the top of the ticket, on the other hand would be difficult to take those states back.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Awsi Dooger
(14,565 posts)That's the way I would summarize right now. Hillary lost those states despite winning by 2+ but I think that was rare circumstance of simply campaigning in the wrong states, and getting a bad break on how the tight results broke.
I think we're likely in another 2000, 2004 or 2016 scenario where a handful of states decide matters. It's about time we won one of those.
Trump can help out if he keeps talking but unfortunately I think he's slowly figuring out how to shut up. His lies/falsehoods per day level has dropped below double digits recently after being considerably higher than that. I think it averaged 15 in 2018, which was nearly triple his 2017 number. Now it has dropped to 8 or 9 daily average in 2019 so far. He lies most frequently at rallies so at least that will increase in 2020 and could keep his approval number down.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
forklift
(401 posts)Or Sanders Warren
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided