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Hometown: New Mexico
Member since: Mon Dec 1, 2003, 03:42 PM
Number of posts: 24,313

Journal Archives

538: Biden Is Polling Better Than Clinton At Her Peak

Election Day is now just three months away, and the overall trajectory of the race hasn’t changed much recently: Joe Biden continues to hold a sizable lead over President Trump. Biden is now up by 8 percentage points in FiveThirtyEight’s national polling average, and he has an advantage of 5 points or more in several key battleground states like Florida, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

Faced with these numbers, though, a lot of people — Republicans, Democrats and people with no particular party affiliation — raise a reasonable question: “Wasn’t Hillary Clinton leading in the polls too?”

Well, yes. But not quite like this. We compared Biden’s standing to where Clinton was at this point in the polls four years ago.1 We specifically chose this point in the cycle in 2016 because it’s about where Clinton hit her peak — on Aug. 7, 2016, following the Democratic National Convention, Clinton had a 7.5-point lead over Trump in national polls.

Clinton never topped that lead. But as you can see in the chart below, even at her post-convention peak, Clinton’s lead over Trump still wasn’t as large as Biden’s is now.

More: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/biden-is-polling-better-than-clinton-at-her-peak/

What exactly is Trump's plan with the Post Office to impact the elections?

To slow the mail down? Won't this just delay the inevitable? Is he trying to cast doubt on how the ballots are handled? Are they planning on rigging the sorters to throw out ballots from certain precincts?

Can someone help me understand what the plan is or are they just desperately flailing around throwing darts and seeing where they might land?

Why The 2020 Presidential Election Is Not 2016

August 8, 2020 7:01 AM ET
Domenico Montanaro

Democrats are haunted by the ghosts of 2016.

Hillary Clinton led in many polls over Donald Trump throughout that election cycle, and while the national polls were pretty dead-on when it came to the popular vote, some key battleground state polls got it wrong.

So who can blame Democrats when they don't believe surveys showing Biden with a significant lead nationally and in key states? The latest NPR Battleground Map released this week, for example, shows Trump slipping and Biden expanding his advantage in the key states. Democrats are favored to retain control of the House, and Republicans are worried about losing the Senate.


But there are plenty of reasons why 2020 is not 2016:

1. Trump appears to have a ceiling of 46%: More concerning for the Trump campaign than a slippage in the polls is the very real possibility that he hasn't gotten higher against Biden than the 46% of the popular vote he got in 2016.

Trump's 45.6% average of the polls at the end of February was his peak against Biden over the last 10 months. What's more, in hundreds of surveys, Trump has only reached even 47% in a few.

2. The third-party vote share is likely to be lower: Roughly 6% of voters in 2016 voted third-party, the highest percentage since 1996. That helped Trump win the Electoral College. But the percentage of people voting third-party in 2020 this fall is likely to be lower for multiple reasons, including:

More: https://www.npr.org/2020/08/08/900338253/why-the-2020-presidential-election-is-not-2016

It's time to take to the streets and call for the resignation of the postmaster general now!

This BS can't continue to go on. As the Votevets ad points out, many folks are not getting their prescriptions and we know he is trying to steal the election.

I think Biden and Kamala can corner Trump and Pence with Qanon nutso stuff

They aren't going to want to distance themselves from Qanon but may have to if Biden says, "So you believe Hillary Clinton eats babies etc. etc.?"

If played right it could be a pretty powerful moment in the debates. If they say they do believe this then they look kooky as hell, if they say they don't, they piss off the 30% of the Republican base that believes this crazy filth.


"This was the pick that scared them the most," MSNBC host on Kamala Harris


Trump and his team believe Harris will more than handle Vice President Mike Pence during that event.

“They thought she could chew him up and spit him out and they pointed to her cross-examination of one Bill Barr,” Wallace said, referring to Harris’ grilling of the attorney general during a Senate hearing last year.

At the time, Trump called Harris “nasty” over the line of questioning and repeated the insult on Tuesday.

Wallace also pointed to Harris’ debates with Biden when both were seeking the presidential nomination.

“She drew blood against former Vice President Biden,” Wallace said. “I don’t know that there’s a better debater or questioner on the political field right now. Her skill set is unmatched.”

More: https://www.aol.com/article/news/2020/08/12/nicolle-wallace-reveals-what-trump-fears-most-about-kamala-harris/24588829/

Days after photos of packed hallways go viral, Paulding high school reports 9 COVID-19 cases

PAULDING COUNTY, Ga. — Just days after a photo of crowded hallways at North Paulding High School went viral, parents were informed Saturday of nine confirmed cases of the coronavirus at the school.

Channel 2 Investigative Reporter Nicole Carr got a copy of the letter. Principal Gabe Carmona wrote that six students and three staff members who were in school last week have since reported positive tests for COVID-19.

The school district has not announced if students who were exposed will have to quarantine and have not given any notice about shutting down classrooms.

Viral pictures of few students wearing masks amid COVID-19 pandemic puts metro school in spotlight
Paulding Co. principal threatens punishment for students who share school pics on social media
Student who posted viral Paulding County school picture says her suspension has been lifted
Talk To Your Doctor About A Treatment Option For Your Chronic Dry Eyes Today

North Paulding got national attention last week after a student took a photo of jam-packed hallways with few students wearing masks. School officials initially suspended the student who took the photo, Hannah Waters, but then lifted the punishment after it sparked outrage.

“Our custodial staff continues to thoroughly clean and disinfect the school building daily, and especially affected areas,” Carmona wrote. “It is my intention to regularly notify the NPHS community of these cases in the interest of transparency and so that we, as a community, can be aware of any trends that arise and respond accordingly.”

Channel 2′s Mike Petchenik learned that according to an open records request verified by Rep. Beth Moore, Paulding County Schools have reported a total of 53 cases of coronavirus within the district since July 1. Twenty-three of those were among students who attend North Paulding High School. Students did not return back to school until Aug. 3.

More: https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.wsbtv.com/news/local/paulding-county/days-after-photos-packed-hallways-go-viral-paulding-school-reports-9-covid-19-cases/X3FEDBYQ3FEA3F3TX5MMQD6E3Y/%3foutputType=amp

Postmaster General, Trump Donor, Dumps Top Postal Execs as Election Nears

Dems need to be screaming at the top of their lungs about this NOW!

President Trump has repeatedly claimed that the U.S. Postal Service isn’t up to the task of handling mail-in ballots in the 2020 election. He has also refused to seek extra funding for mail delivery in this election year.

And the major supporter he appointed to run the USPS is making it even harder.

“Postmaster General Louis DeJoy unveiled a sweeping overhaul of the nation’s mail service” on Friday, “displacing the two top executives overseeing day-to-day operations,” along with 21 other top officials, reports the Washington Post.

More: https://www.newsandguts.com/postmaster-general-trump-donor-dumps-top-postal-execs-as-election-nears/?fbclid=IwAR2Ivex8cLsUuhi6qBAMGdQtqxZa9TSgQPsZgwOC07hQ6dYCbjoA6RbmiO4

Why am I hearing some Biden supporters are afraid of him debating Trump???

I am looking forward to the debate. Biden did great in the Democratic debates against much smarter people. I realize Trump is unorthodox but Hillary wiped the floor with him and now he has 4 years of total disaster to try to defend. Biden will have all the scandals, atrocious data etc. at his fingertips. He sometimes gets tripped up on a word or two but he remembers all the important points. Trump's mental decline has accelerated probably because of the barrage of political attack ads as his self centered brain is overwhelmed and shorting out. I am sure Biden will be working with a psychologist to know just got to get under Trump's skin and rattle him. This is different from 4 years ago because now his ego has to defend the pile of shit he created which I think will be more apt to get him upset. Also, I think the guy from HBO showed how to handle him. If Trump says something idiotic like "Look at the books" then Biden follows up and asks him "What books what the FUCK are you talking about, that makes no sense?". Biden won't have to be as nice. He can be a pitbull. I also think Biden comes across more macho than a lot of the Republicans Trump debates. Trump made Marco Rubio, Jeb, Ted Cruz etc. look weak. Biden doesn't ever come across as weak and I think he will look more "Alpha dog" than Trump which is for some reason really important to a lot of folks.

Student suspended after showing fellow students without masks l GMA

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