February 26, 2020

CNN: This new South Carolina poll is very bad news for Joe Biden

(CNN)Bernie Sanders just might win the South Carolina primary on Saturday.

That's the real headline out of a new poll conducted by NBC and Marist College that shows Sanders trailing longtime South Carolina front-runner Joe Biden by a narrow 27% to 23% margin, with five days of campaigning remaining. (Several recent polls have suggested a similar tightening.)

While the top-line number draws the eye, it's a series of other questions sprinkled throughout the poll that seem to suggest a path to a massive upset victory does, in fact, exist.
Consider:
1) Roughly 1 in 3 Biden backers in the poll (32%) said they might vote for another candidate on Saturday. Just more than 1 in 10 Sanders supporters (12%) said the same. That's broadly consistent with what we've seen throughout this primary to date; Sanders has the most committed support, while Biden's has been among the least committed.
2) This poll was in the field from February 18 to February 21. On February 19, the top six Democrats appeared at a debate in Las Vegas. Because of that, the pollsters broke out interviews they conducted before the debate and those they conducted after it. In the pre-debate sample, Biden led Sanders by 10. In the post-debate sample, the two candidates were dead even. That suggests momentum was moving in Sanders' direction even before he won a surprisingly sweeping victory in the Nevada caucuses on Saturday.
3) Among voters with a clear candidate preference or those who had already voted, more than 7 in 10 (72%) Bernie-backers said they "strongly supported" him. Among those with preference for Biden that strong support was at 61%. Again, a clear passion/enthusiasm gap there.

More: https://www.cnn.com/2020/02/25/politics/joe-biden-south-carolina-poll-bernie-sanders/index.html

February 26, 2020

So I watched the debate with a Republican co-worker tonight and there was one moment that

caught my attention because he was saying yes to every question the candidate was asking the audience. The moment was when Sanders rattled off his series of financial burdens he wants to tackle. Don't get me wrong as this guy will NEVER vote for Sanders because he is a racist homophobe and religious nut, but if he wasn't a MAGA type he might have been open to Sanders. I believe these are the issues / questions Sanders listed:

1. Healthcare Burdin - I know for a fact his wife currently is not covered. She has had cancer, is high risk etc. I told them the exchange had to cover her but they are strange and seem to just hate it because Obama put it through.
2. Student Debt - He is 60 and STILL is paying off student debt
3. Prescription drugs - I have heard him complain to his wife many times how much they are getting ripped off for all their drugs. He recently had a triple bypass and he has diabetes and they are paying over $500 a month for drugs. His heart, diabetes and her issues.
4. Free college - Their son is about to start college and they don't know how they can afford to pay for it.


To get to the point, this moment and my co-workers reaction made me realize exactly why Sanders is resonating with HUGE numbers of folks. Because they are hurting and Sanders is a master at staying on a simple message. Keep in mind that Republicans are usually much better at messaging and keeping things simple for people to understand. Sanders is the ONLY one who seems to understand this and even though a lot of people tonight thought Sanders took some hits; to everyday struggling Americans he spoke RIGHT to them as the others sounded like John Kerry with too much detail and policy to where people tune out. Of course they want Sander to explain how he will pay for everything and these are very legitimate questions but in a debate this short, people don't expect someone to go over all the intricate, boring details.

I personally am in pretty good shape financially but I am fascinated by the tens of millions Sanders must be reaching by hitting on these extremely expensive, life threatening issues. Of the hot button issues Sanders mentions which if any apply to you?

Let me know if I forgot one of his hot button issues.

February 26, 2020

Not that I think Trump's opinion matters much but Lev Parnas audio showed he feared Sanders

February 26, 2020

Did tonight's debate change the trajectory?

My gut tells me that because Biden had a good debate in a state he is already leading in and really needs to do well in, it's possible this debate could lead to a stronger win in SC. If that happens then perhaps his campaign will have a second wind and he can possibly be the comeback kid? Everyone was going after Sanders tonight and I think he took some hits but he did a pretty good job deflecting the attacks and staying on message. However, I think he took a small amount of damage. If Sanders falters in SC coming in below 2nd place and Biden does really well, then tonight's debate could be a game changer. Not sure Sanders performance in the debate changed things that drastically though. If Sanders takes second in SC, he stays the front runner but Biden supporters will certainly have more hope then they had before this debate. If Sanders comes in 3rd then that would be a big blow and Biden and whomever takes second would have a big lift going into Super Tuesday.

I don't think any of the others had breakthroughs or took major hits.

February 25, 2020

We should take Trump's advice on what to do when the market drops 1,000 pts in one day

Not sure however, what the Dow Joans is?







Link: https://imgur.com/gallery/rELgQf2?fbclid=IwAR0Qq7mc0S5thX3_cDeZFLjYYZQjE25rXcuBvKohIVpUbIerDhNX4Xi6U2M

February 25, 2020

Curb Your Enthusiasm - The Penis Cake

February 24, 2020

Reminder that Trump also praises Dictators.

February 24, 2020

Farm Bankruptcies Reach Great Recession Levels

NEWS
Farm bankruptcies reach Great Recession numbers
In 2019, there were 595 Chapter 12 family farm bankruptcies in the U.S.

Credit: Talk Business & Politics
Author: Talk Business & Politics
Published: 11:24 AM CST February 20, 2020
Updated: 11:24 AM CST February 20, 2020
International trade wars, low commodity prices, and erratic weather have plagued farmers throughout the country in recent years and the number of farmers going bankrupt is on the rise, according to an analysis done by American Farm Bureau.

In 2019, there were 595 Chapter 12 family farm bankruptcies in the U.S., the most since 637 were filed in 2011. It was almost 100 more than were filed in 2018. Filings tended to accelerate toward the end of the year with 147 being filed in the fourth quarter of 2019 alone, a 14% spike as compared to the same quarter the previous year, the analysis found.

Arkansas had 13 farms declare Chapter 12 and the state of Wisconsin, with a beleaguered number of dairy farmers, led the nation with 57. The number in Arkansas was unchanged from 2018. From 2010 to 2019, Arkansas had 134 bankruptcies in this category. During this same period, California had the most with 388 followed by Wisconsin (375), Georgia (351) and Florida (212).

More: https://www.5newsonline.com/article/news/farmers-bankruptcies/527-bb098fa3-b5e5-4da2-b2c6-e3654d2a9e8d

February 24, 2020

Report: Economic slowdown could hit Wisconsin in 2020

The very most recent polls have Trump slightly ahead in WI, however that poll was an outlier. Others that came out just a few weeks ago had the Dem candidates slightly ahead. Trump's approval rating in WI is at 43%. Since Trump took office, his net approval in Wisconsin has decreased by 16 percentage points. He beat Hillary by about 1/2 a percent. With the economy starting to falter I think Trump is going to have a hard time holding WI.




By Dave Fidlin | The Center Square

Wisconsin’s economy could be impacted by a potential recession in 2020, according to a study looking at how states across the country would weather broader economic forces in the year ahead.

Researchers with Bloomberg suggested Wisconsin could be one of seven across the U.S. entering a state of contraction.

In addition to Wisconsin, Bloomberg’s analysis suggests three other battleground states – Michigan, Ohio and Pennsylvania – that tilted in President Donald Trump’s favor in the 2016 race could be vulnerable to contraction during the upcoming pivotal election year.

The Bloomberg analysis was based on data from the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, but does not necessarily portray an ominous picture of next year’s economic climate in the respective states.

“The data don’t predict recessions in Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Ohio,” Bloomberg’s Alexandre Tanzi and Gregory Korte wrote in the article. “Rather, it shows the states may be entering a weak period in their business cycles.”

Fed indexes reveal Wisconsin’s economy contracted 0.05 percent at the end of the third quarter of this year. By contrast, the national economy continued to expand at the end of 2018 in the state to the tune of 0.73 percent.

More: https://www.thecentersquare.com/wisconsin/report-economic-slowdown-could-hit-wisconsin-in/article_f1f4cdba-04aa-11ea-bc4d-f7ec48142625.html

February 24, 2020

Time to worry? U.S. job openings dropped by 1 million, and that was before the coronavirus spread

By Mitchell Schnurman

5:00 AM on Feb 23, 2020

Some cracks are emerging in America’s long-running growth story — or at least some warning signs.

While job creation has continued at an impressive pace, the number of openings has fallen sharply, according to government data released recently. In December, job openings in the private sector fell by 1.1 million, a decline of over 16%. That’s the steepest downturn since 2009, when the country was still reeling from the Great Recession.

“Any economic comparisons to 2009 tend to be concerning,” said Daniel Zhao, senior economist and data scientist at Glassdoor, one of the world’s largest job sites. “This is a sign the labor market is slowing down.”

Many key indicators are still strong, including the latest jobs report. In January, the U.S. added 225,000 nonfarm jobs, far surpassing economists’ expectations. Zhao also noted that total job openings are high by historical standards, topping 5.7 million in December. And openings still exceed the number of unemployed people, a reflection of how tight the labor market remains for many employers.

The unemployment rate is near a 50-year low, too. But that’s a lagging indicator, turning up only after people start to lose jobs. In contrast, job openings are forward-looking, offering insight into where trends may be heading.

Employers can add openings or pull them quickly, based on what they’re seeing in real time, Zhao said.

“They can’t hire or fire nearly as fast,” he said.

December’s big drop wasn’t a one-off. Job openings began falling in mid-2019 and accelerated through the end of the year, hitting double-digit declines in November and December.

More: https://www.dallasnews.com/business/jobs/2020/02/23/time-to-worry-us-job-openings-dropped-by-1-million-and-that-was-before-the-coronavirus-spread/