Fiendish Thingy
Fiendish Thingy's JournalNate Silver puts 538's reputation on the line with last minute hedging and a shrug.
Here’s Nate’s long-winded apologia from yesterday where he essentially says they’ve been manipulated by the flood of recent shitty R polls, but since they’re in the prediction business, they’re going to predict any way:
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-3-big-questions-i-still-have-about-election-day/
And here’s today’s article, where he continues to hedge, basically saying “anything could happen, but whatever happens, we were right”:
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/final-2022-election-forecast/
I know he’s obligated to ABC to provide clear, numerical predictions to drive the dumbed down horse race narrative, but with all the anomalies this year, not just in polling, but in so many other factors, it would have been more honest to use 538’s reputation to say an accurate prediction was impossible to make this cycle.
Ali Velshi: To Tell The Truth
I will NEVER donate via Act Blue again.
Last week, I made several small dollar donations to numerous 2022 Dem candidates via Act Blue. There were links from Daily Kos to Act Blue pages “bundling” donations to house candidates running for seats in the most “winnable” districts, as well as pages with donations targeting critical senate, AG and SOS races.
I entered my information, including my US passport number (since I live in Canada), submitted my donations, and thought all was well and good.
I got confirmation emails thanking me for my donations, listing all the candidates I had donated to.
The problem is, several of the entries of candidate donations, including Stacy Abrams and several others (probably 20-25% of all candidates) were listed as “not processed”. The only reasoning I could think of was the candidate’s own software scanned my Canadian address, but not my US passport number (or Act Blue didn’t provide it), and declined the donation as coming from a foreign citizen.
It gets worse.
When entering my information, I made sure to select the “one time only” button, and especially the “don’t email me” box.
Everyday since I made the donations, I have received up to 10 emails and 10 texts from various Dem candidates, some of whom, like Henry Cuellar, I specifically didn’t donate to.
I have had to click the “unsubscribe” link on each email which takes me to another page, which I must make an additional 1-3 clicks before I am truly unsubscribed (my experience with other emails is that just clicking “unsubscribe” is enough to end the unwanted email). It’s a major PITA.
I have come to the conclusion that one way Act Blue makes money is by selling their donor lists.
I will NEVER donate via Act Blue again.
From now on, I will only donate directly to candidates I want to support.
DOJ's likely strategy to appeal/nullify Cannon's ruling:
https://twitter.com/ArmandoNDK/status/1567162481696555008?Marcy Wheeler of emptywheel agrees.
Special Master: unclutch your pearls, unwring your hands
Today’s corrupt ruling by an incompetent lower court judge is not a done deal.
The written ruling was issued on a holiday, when DOJ couldn’t file an immediate appeal.
I don’t expect DOJ to roll over, hand back all the seized documents, shrug, and say “as you wish”.
I DO expect DOJ to seek a stay pending appeal, and keep possession of the seized documents.
I DO NOT expect a Special Master to be named anytime soon, until after appeals are exhausted and the elections are over.
At WORST, I think DOJ might settle for submitting the non-classified documents already “filtered” by their team to a special master for review for attorney client privilege, NOT executive privilege.
The maintenance crew at DU is gonna have to recharge all the extinguishers, since I’m sure they’ve all been used up on all the folks running around with their hair on fire…
Emptywheel: the Elements of The Offense for an 18 USC 793e Prosecution
https://www.emptywheel.net/2022/08/26/the-elements-of-the-offense-for-an-18-usc-793e-prosecution/Excellent overview of the questions a jury would be asked to find in order to convict Trump of violating that section of the Espionage Act.
I want to update with contents of the affidavit that so that others understand how things like the June 3 meeting at Mar-a-Lago were not only an attempt to get the stolen classified documents back, but were, short of doing so, a way to establish probable cause in the event that Trump would not cooperate. These efforts would overcome the real challenges — laid out in this WaPo article — of holding a former President accountable.
Key to holding Donald J. Trump accountable for the theft of classified documents will not be, as it is in most cases, reference to the multiple Non-Disclosure Agreements that cleared people have to sign (for the reasons the WaPo laid out). Instead, it would be to show that the President Records Act required Trump to return every Presidential Record, classified or not, and that because he did not have clearance after he was no longer President nor (according to Joe Biden) a need to know, he could not retain any NDI. Given the atrocious conditions under which he kept this stuff at Mar-a-Lago and his refusal to fix that, the guidelines on retaining classified information (which are cited in the affidavit) would also be key.
Here’s what jurors would be asked to decide:
Much, much more at link.
My wish list for SNL hosts and musical guests this season:
D’arcy Carden (Barry, League of Their Own)
Bill Hader (for the Halloween show please!)
Hannah Waddingham (Ted Lasso)
Stephanie Beatriz (Brooklyn 99, Encanto)
Elle Fanning (The Great)
John Mulaney
Jeff Bridges
Steve Buscemi
Musical Guests wish list:
The Regrettes
Belle & Sebastian
The Beths
People who gift Star Memberships:
Thanks to the anonymous donor who gifted me a Star Membership!
People who gift Star Memberships:
Emptywheel: Next steps in Trump stolen documents investigation
https://www.emptywheel.net/2022/08/21/next-steps-in-the-trump-stolen-documents-investigation/I often point to the example of Joshua Schulte, the former CIA coder convicted last month of the Vault 7 and 8 leaks. He wasn’t jailed until almost nine months after the initial search of his apartment, and only then because he violated bail conditions on charges related to Child Sexual Abuse Materials allegedly found on his server. He wasn’t charged on the Espionage Act charges until 15 months after that initial search.
And it sounds like Trump won’t be charged anytime soon. At a hearing before Magistrate Judge Bruce Reinhart last week, the head of DOJ’s counterintelligence section, Jay Bratt, said the investigation is in its “early stages.” That may suggest that Trump or others are suspected of more than just storing classified information in insecure conditions and refusing to give it back. Perhaps the people entering and exiting the storage closet at Mar-a-Lago did something more than just hide stuff from DOJ. Or perhaps the obstruction investigation — which may be obstruction of this investigation or others — is more complex than we imagine (which isn’t hard, because most journalists are simply ignoring that suspected crime).
Whatever the reason Bratt stated that DOJ will need to do significant further investigation, there are steps that would be required in any case. There are four steps that the FBI would take before considering charges.
Much, much more at link, including details of the likely next steps in the investigation:
Filter Review
Scope Review
Classification Review
Inventory
"While Joe Biden is passing bills, Trump..."
“…is passing FBI agents in the hallway”.
Stolen from John Lovett of Pod Save America.
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