General Discussion

https://fortune.com/2022/03/01/ukraine-president-zelenskyy-urgent-eu-membership-nato-mutural-defense/

snip

Will the EU let in Ukraine?

Not likely, at least for a long while.

EU leaders have hailed Zelensky’s heroic defiance and sound open to the idea—on the surface. The presidents of eight EU countries in the Eastern Europe signed a letter on Monday night urging immediate talks on Ukraine’s membership. And on Sunday, EU President Ursula von der Leyen said in an interview, “Ukraine is one of us, and we want them in the EU… Over time, they belong to us.” But Ukraine does not have time. With Russia bombarding its cities, it needs quick action, from a bloc whose decision-making moves at a snail’s pace.

That is one reason the EU’s foreign affairs chief Josep Borrell dismissed any idea of fast-track membership for Ukraine, saying on Monday, “Membership is something that will take a lot of years. We have to provide an answer for the coming hours, not the coming years.” Despite the EU leaders’ gushing support, Zelenskyy could also struggle to win approval for Ukraine’s membership—which requires the agreement of all 27 nations (down from 28, since the U.K. exited last year)—when and if it comes up for a vote. Charles Michel, who heads the European Council of EU leaders, cautioned that there were “different opinions and sensitivities within the EU about enlargement.”

That is an understatement. “Accession,” as new membership is called, is one of the most bitterly divisive issues in Europe, and the EU’s unshakable unity against Vladimir Putin could fray badly once leaders start debating Ukraine joining. French President Emmanuel Macron, who is the current rotating head of the EU, has said he would vote against all new membership applications until the EU implements “deep reform to the way we function institutionally.” Those reforms, like accelerated decision-making and stronger human rights protections in some countries, have yet to occur.

For now, Ukraine has only an “association agreement” with the EU, giving it access to the single market. If and when its membership application is formally accepted, it faces lengthy scrutiny and structural reforms, as well as possible demands from individual countries. Greece, for example, fought for 15 years to have Macedonia change its name to North Macedonia, as a condition for it joining the EU. North Macedonia changed its name in 2020, but it is still waiting to join.

snip