2016 Postmortem

CalmaPlease

(3 posts)

92. Everyone needs to relax. Here is why

Reply to nadinbrzezinski (Original post)

Wed May 18, 2016, 11:34 PM

May 2016

First, do yourself a favor and go look at the RCP Averages for Clinton vs Trump all the way back to last year. Next, observe the following:

-Trump has led Clinton in individual polls 7 times

-Of those 7, Fox conducted half of them and they were always an outlier relative to the rest of the polls in that time frame.

-Each of these seven polls were conducted immediately after big surges in Trump headlines ( Super Tuesday Wins, North East Primaries, Debates etc)

-Similarly, you will notice HRC's biggest + variances were for polls taken in the midst of or immediately after huge primary wins (note Super Tuesday time frame)

-Curiously, Rasmussen conducted a poll 4/25-4/26 right in the middle of Trump's huge North East primary and media narrative wins. apparently, he did not like the results and conducted another poll over the following 2 days in which he finally gets a Trump +2. lol

So the latest Fox News + Rasmussen polls are really skewing the rolling average and not surprisingly, the media is driving poll hysteria and nonsense narratives which are trying to make sweeping conclusions about Trump being unstoppable.

Take a step back and imagine we had a real time poll second by second of likely voters. At this stage in the cycle, the vast majority of low information voters would be swayed by headlines and media narratives. If you subjectively pick your sample data points, I wouldnt be surprised to see Trump or Hillary up by +15 and any given point.

So what's the takeaway? Calma! Relax! Focus on trends as more and more data comes in. Ignore short term narratives. Hillary is still leading Bernie by more votes than Trump led Cruz. Bernie is not going to win the nomination.

Reference:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.html#polls
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/republican_vote_count.html
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/democratic_vote_count.html
https://www.gop.com/2016-gophq/event_schedule/?schedule_type=debate

Edit history

Please sign in to view edit histories.

162 replies

= new reply since forum marked as read

Highlight:

Hey kids, CNN was just discussing Clinton losing her polling edge with Trump [View all] nadinbrzezinski May 2016 OP

But the chairs thrown is such a better story to waste time on. Nanjeanne May 2016 #1

They made me laugh as well nadinbrzezinski May 2016 #4

And yet, no chair was thrown. Scootaloo May 2016 #80

"I draw your attention to The Curious Incident of the Chair at the Convention" Babel_17 May 2016 #159

There has been no evidence of chairs being thrown. Skwmom May 2016 #148

I guess I needed to write "sarcasm" Nanjeanne May 2016 #149

Wonder who they're taking their marching orders from...? Serious question... Merryland May 2016 #2

Clinton is the nominee alcibiades_mystery May 2016 #3

Yes we are dealing with it, and laughing nadinbrzezinski May 2016 #7

Clinton is the nominee alcibiades_mystery May 2016 #12

Yes she is, who said otherwise nadinbrzezinski May 2016 #16

Clinton is the nominee alcibiades_mystery May 2016 #22

And your point, polly wants a cracker nadinbrzezinski May 2016 #27

Clinton is the nominee alcibiades_mystery May 2016 #31

Hey polly here is a cracker nadinbrzezinski May 2016 #38

Clinton is the nominee alcibiades_mystery May 2016 #40

Lol Duckhunter935 May 2016 #49

Paid by the post, the easy way. JudyM May 2016 #84

Just a true believer. frylock May 2016 #139

Message auto-removed Name removed May 2016 #51

Is something wrong? It sounds like you *need* us to "deal with it." reformist2 May 2016 #86

Maybe you need to take a nap? eom PufPuf23 May 2016 #94

Clinton likely will be the nominee, and that's the problem. Get your recording looked at. DisgustipatedinCA May 2016 #150

Hahahaha i guess when Hillary hired an army of trolls... RANGERMAN89 May 2016 #155

Rofl! Howler May 2016 #97

Well, I have to admit that at least that bird looks like it's not living in squalor. zappaman May 2016 #114

LMAO nadinbrzezinski May 2016 #116

Tourette's? floriduck May 2016 #39

Well, it IS kind of profane. dchill May 2016 #85

Nope kaleckim May 2016 #95

Message auto-removed Name removed May 2016 #50

advertising 101: repeat a lie enough times and hope people buy into it amborin May 2016 #99

They hope! Babel_17 May 2016 #160

Lol the fail is strong with this one! jack_krass May 2016 #105

laughing? you must be so happy about President Trump rbrnmw May 2016 #24

Well you might want to discuss that with the polls and the pannel nadinbrzezinski May 2016 #28

I think the polls will adjust once we have a nominee rbrnmw May 2016 #32

Oh so we don't have one yet? WOW! nadinbrzezinski May 2016 #35

Not until the end of the Primary rbrnmw May 2016 #42

Ok I can respect somebody *who understands the process* nadinbrzezinski May 2016 #57

let us know when you find out. rbrnmw May 2016 #103

Not in DC nadinbrzezinski May 2016 #104

oh darn so you are a local reporter? rbrnmw May 2016 #107

Yup, we run a local publication n San Diego nadinbrzezinski May 2016 #109

well hopefully you are able to find out a do a great story for your Newspaper rbrnmw May 2016 #129

Yeah kaleckim May 2016 #98

But, the Clinton parrot, above, said that we do. About 5 times in a row. w4rma May 2016 #127

That's why I go to 840high May 2016 #72

Well CNN does play both sides nadinbrzezinski May 2016 #74

we shall see timmymoff May 2016 #58

She will not be president mindwalker_i May 2016 #21

Clinton is the nominee alcibiades_mystery May 2016 #25

Yes, Hillary supporters have been saying that for months mindwalker_i May 2016 #30

Clinton is the nominee alcibiades_mystery May 2016 #33

Because of this type of attitude mindwalker_i May 2016 #46

Clinton is the nominee alcibiades_mystery May 2016 #48

... mindwalker_i May 2016 #54

Did all the states vote? 840high May 2016 #73

No, but screw them mindwalker_i May 2016 #125

Democrats are choosing their candidate. Hortensis May 2016 #143

"Democrats" has a specific meaning here mindwalker_i May 2016 #156

Jury.. Cha May 2016 #126

Hello, Cha! chwaliszewski May 2016 #138

ROFL alcibiades_mystery May 2016 #147

LOL! reformist2 May 2016 #90

Wait kaleckim May 2016 #101

That's true, I'll need to add this: mindwalker_i May 2016 #124

You've designed a perfect Hillarybot. In just a few lines of code! reformist2 May 2016 #142

You make no sense! n/t RKP5637 May 2016 #56

Not yet. But keep saying it. It might come true. nt Logical May 2016 #68

You are confusing future (speculative) tense with past tense. lagomorph777 May 2016 #157

And while I believe she is a good person, she sucks as a candidate. phleshdef May 2016 #161

Well, they don't waste their time discussing presumptive loser -- Sanders. Hoyt May 2016 #5

You think the FBI investigation has anything to do with it? /nt trudyco May 2016 #6

I have no idea how to read this nadinbrzezinski May 2016 #9

Once the woman is nominated, her poll numbers will go up as Bernie fans fall in line larkrake May 2016 #108

Since I am not invested in this nadinbrzezinski May 2016 #110

Yes, we know you wanted Sanders and think Clinton being indicted would be a hoot. zappaman May 2016 #117

LMAO nadinbrzezinski May 2016 #118

This message was self-deleted by its author 2banon May 2016 #132

... 2banon May 2016 #136

I can't wait to fall in line! frylock May 2016 #140

Thanks for the report One Black Sheep May 2016 #8

Thank goodness it's only spring, and once BS leaves the race things should get better. eastwestdem May 2016 #10

I am cheering the man I have called a fascist and worst nadinbrzezinski May 2016 #13

Hard to ignore that her 'unfavorables' now surpass the Trumpster's ... AzDar May 2016 #11

That was part of the discussion nadinbrzezinski May 2016 #14

That is astonishing! AzDar May 2016 #17

Notice the reaction from the natives though nadinbrzezinski May 2016 #19

IT'S BERNIE'S FAULT!!!! QC May 2016 #76

Ok you made me laugh nadinbrzezinski May 2016 #83

... 840high May 2016 #141

Trends. H2O Man May 2016 #36

It obviously makes you giddy attacking our nominee and propping up Trump. Trust Buster May 2016 #15

Take it with CNN, they are the ones discussing this nadinbrzezinski May 2016 #18

You mean CNN posts on DU under your screen name ? You are overconfident IMO. Trust Buster May 2016 #26

Nah that was on CNN air, Anderson Cooper nadinbrzezinski May 2016 #29

They may be the ones ... quickesst May 2016 #44

Nah I am actually amused by US media trailing foreign media nadinbrzezinski May 2016 #47

Haha... quickesst May 2016 #66

Well since I read those pieces months ago nadinbrzezinski May 2016 #71

OK... quickesst May 2016 #91

Nope, it was to point to a pattern nadinbrzezinski May 2016 #120

They know that. It's like they're just play acting. Trust Buster May 2016 #70

I don't think... quickesst May 2016 #102

Seriously how do you know TimPlo May 2016 #34

I am a she, and trust buster does not know my state of mind nadinbrzezinski May 2016 #43

You mean like how most of world TimPlo May 2016 #53

Excactly nadinbrzezinski May 2016 #55

I never typed "him". That's your unwitting assumption. Citing that way to a "nadin' would be a tad Trust Buster May 2016 #45

Your nominee timmymoff May 2016 #59

And you ceremoniously lost. Trust Buster May 2016 #60

And i cermoniously won't be helping Hillary timmymoff May 2016 #64

And I ceremoniously don't care what you do or not. Trust Buster May 2016 #67

I think Trump AND Hillary are horrible candidates. How is that helping Trump? nt Logical May 2016 #69

When the big story of the day should be about DNC shenanigans in Nevada. mia May 2016 #20

They actually did cover that as well nadinbrzezinski May 2016 #23

I was just going to post about this panel. hedda_foil May 2016 #119

Somebody above suggested FBI nadinbrzezinski May 2016 #121

I think you're right. Someone on the inside dropped the proverbial dime on the media guys n gals. hedda_foil May 2016 #122

I know nadinbrzezinski May 2016 #123

Results of your trial by jury: GummyBearz May 2016 #87

Thank you. mia May 2016 #96

Shades of Romney all over again. Once Bernie is out, her numbers will rise AND POCs will be out Jitter65 May 2016 #37

MSNBC is also discussing it now. IMO TPTB of the dem party are RKP5637 May 2016 #41

Ok so both are doing that nadinbrzezinski May 2016 #52

This is the result of hate for anyone in the sadoldgirl May 2016 #61

Well the dynamics are being completely missed nadinbrzezinski May 2016 #63

Let's focus on the Senate. Republicans with the presidency, the Senate, and the House is the end of Vote2016 May 2016 #62

...? Postus interruptus? JudyM May 2016 #89

That would be a good idea. Hortensis May 2016 #144

She never REALLY had one to lose. basselope May 2016 #65

Once Clinton is safely in place, the corporate media will turn QC May 2016 #75

This is too early for that nadinbrzezinski May 2016 #77

When the turn happens, the same news sources treated as the Voice of God QC May 2016 #81

I am nadinbrzezinski May 2016 #82

Made your day, did it? The_Casual_Observer May 2016 #78

I like to do media analysis and the way this is now a narrative nadinbrzezinski May 2016 #79

I'm fairly invested, I'd actually hate see a fascist monster who may very well The_Casual_Observer May 2016 #112

Well Trump is a fascist nadinbrzezinski May 2016 #115

K&R dchill May 2016 #88

Everyone needs to relax. Here is why CalmaPlease May 2016 #92

This message was self-deleted by its author TM99 May 2016 #130

Would you like some popcorn? nadinbrzezinski May 2016 #133

This message was self-deleted by its author TM99 May 2016 #134

Enjoy nadinbrzezinski May 2016 #135

This message was self-deleted by its author TM99 May 2016 #137

Good perspective, CalmaPlease. Good sensible info. Hortensis May 2016 #145

tick...tick...tick.... ViseGrip May 2016 #93

and you don't think the fight with sanders has anything to do with it. n/t. okieinpain May 2016 #100

Not in the least larkrake May 2016 #106

Sorry, but your candidate, Bernie Sanders, is probably not going to be the nominee. zappaman May 2016 #111

LMAO nadinbrzezinski May 2016 #113

You don't say. silvershadow May 2016 #128

Right now they are on breaking news nadinbrzezinski May 2016 #131

Thanks in large part to Bernie Demsrule86 May 2016 #146

It is the middle of May. Relax tonyt53 May 2016 #151

I never saw that coming... Skwmom May 2016 #152

That is funny Progressive dog May 2016 #153

I was in Zurich in late March and watched CNN and what a difference in how they report vs here kimbutgar May 2016 #154

I know nadinbrzezinski May 2016 #158

K & R nt Casandia May 2016 #162