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2016 Postmortem

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DemocratSinceBirth

(99,719 posts)
Sat Sep 17, 2016, 08:19 AM Sep 2016

Polls are lagging indicators. Better to follow the betting markets. [View all]

Rightly or wrongly and I believe wrongly but my opinion is irrelevant to the matter , the opinions of what the voters say is what ultimately matters, Hillary took a hit in the polls over her health scare and Deplorables comment. However now she is coming back.

Most of the scary polls were taken from last Friday to Wednesday which was Hillary's nadir. She will now start moving up in the polls again as she gets credit for working through her illness and Trump will now start sinking in the polls as a result of his clumsy remarks about birtherism and his call to his deplorable minions to harm Hillary Clinton.


Here are two nice links to betting markets:


https://electionbettingodds.com/


There has been a 4.2% shift to HRC in 24 hours.

Here is another one:


http://predictwise.com/


27 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
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DSB, thank you! MoonRiver Sep 2016 #1
We need to tamp down the hysteria. It destroys esprit de corps. DemocratSinceBirth Sep 2016 #2
I like watching USDMXN forex rates. Lucky Luciano Sep 2016 #3
I can see a nexus between two markets which wouldn't seem to be connected on its face. DemocratSinceBirth Sep 2016 #4
" a 100% defensive position" A bullet proof vest? n/t jtuck004 Sep 2016 #13
100% hedge. DemocratSinceBirth Sep 2016 #14
Oh good. Bring a stockbroker to a gunfight. I understand what the the guy from stock tank is saying, jtuck004 Sep 2016 #18
Cuban is one of the good guys this election cycle DemocratSinceBirth Sep 2016 #20
He takes money from other people's labor. Is part of the problem, even with a smirk on jtuck004 Sep 2016 #25
Day to day movements are no biggie. Lucky Luciano Sep 2016 #19
CNN Political Prediction Market yallerdawg Sep 2016 #5
Plus, the press has finally revolted against Trump, thanks to his "press conference" scam yesterday. SunSeeker Sep 2016 #6
seriously-- what a freaking scam. And it's about time they wised up. Fast Walker 52 Sep 2016 #7
Thank you! nt Demsrule86 Sep 2016 #8
People probably betting Trump shot himself in the foot yesterday ProudToBeBlueInRhody Sep 2016 #9
I don't want to leave the impression I believe Trump can't win. DemocratSinceBirth Sep 2016 #10
I'm still confident Hillary will win ProudToBeBlueInRhody Sep 2016 #11
K&R Auggie Sep 2016 #12
Last week was "peak Trump" scheming daemons Sep 2016 #15
He's sank another percent or so in the last hour. DemocratSinceBirth Sep 2016 #21
4.2%? Cracklin Charlie Sep 2016 #16
Now it's 4.5. It is an aggregate of many betting markets. Follow the money. DemocratSinceBirth Sep 2016 #17
It's the Senate I'm worried about! ananda Sep 2016 #22
I consider 'Deplorables' to be an issue. SCVDem Sep 2016 #23
polls rtracey Sep 2016 #24
Excellent point! These people don't play. nolabear Sep 2016 #26
Good to see MFM008 Sep 2016 #27
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