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2016 Postmortem
In reply to the discussion: Clinton down 10 points in one week [View all]wyldwolf
(43,875 posts)9. Here
This Reuters / Ipsos poll began in January 2012 and since then continuously polled between 2,000 and 3,000 people a week. Over that period, we have asked hundreds of questions ranging from presidential politics to the Oscars, from the Syrian civil war to the perception of social networks, such as Facebook and Twitter.
Unlike almost all mainstream polls, the data is entirely collected via online surveys. Online surveys allow us to collect far more data and to be more flexible and fast-moving than phone research, and online is also where the future of polling lies.
Unlike almost all mainstream polls, the data is entirely collected via online surveys. Online surveys allow us to collect far more data and to be more flexible and fast-moving than phone research, and online is also where the future of polling lies.
Here they claim to be the most accurate:
This methodology may be different from the traditional (telephone) approach used by others, but it is highly accurate: It was the most accurate national poll of US residents published immediately before the November 2012 general election.
Go HERE, click ABOUT
However, here is what Silver says about it's methodology (remember, it was the Reuters / Ipsos poll that had Romney thinking he'd win.)
Now it becomes easier to understand why the poll showed such distinct results from others conducted at the same time: it used a very different, and possibly rather dubious, methodology.
Internet-based polls are very likely to be a part of pollings future, and my view is not necessarily that they should be dismissed out of hand. However, they need to be approached with caution.
The central challenge that Internet polls face is in collecting a random sample, which is the sine qua non of a scientific survey. There is no centralized database of e-mail addresses, nor any other method to ping someone at random to invite them to participate in an online poll. Many people have several e-mail addresses, while about 20 percent of Americans still do not go online at all.
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/01/15/before-citing-a-poll-read-the-fine-print/
Internet-based polls are very likely to be a part of pollings future, and my view is not necessarily that they should be dismissed out of hand. However, they need to be approached with caution.
The central challenge that Internet polls face is in collecting a random sample, which is the sine qua non of a scientific survey. There is no centralized database of e-mail addresses, nor any other method to ping someone at random to invite them to participate in an online poll. Many people have several e-mail addresses, while about 20 percent of Americans still do not go online at all.
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/01/15/before-citing-a-poll-read-the-fine-print/
Defend the poll all you want. It will make primary day even funnier for us.
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There's an enormous difference between using online surveys and it being an 'online poll'.
ColesCountyDem
Oct 2015
#10
Just like it was someone on Hillary's staff who ordered the backup server to overwrite data
leveymg
Oct 2015
#29
Movement in a deep downward shift for Clinton, and a one hell of a jump for Bernie.
Time_Lord
Oct 2015
#60
Some of this Sander support is starting to look like FUD and acting like it too
uponit7771
Oct 2015
#75
To be fair, she'd just seen a small bump moving her up against challengers.
Erich Bloodaxe BSN
Oct 2015
#3
Apparently a "survey" with a "credibility interval" of + or - 4.5....not even an on-line poll!
Fred Sanders
Oct 2015
#13
Just last week all the rage was a "survey" claiming Sanders leads in all 50 states!
Fred Sanders
Oct 2015
#33
Explain the science behind polls re Primary Candidates that include people who are not running?
sabrina 1
Oct 2015
#44
How can I put this more succinctly and clearly? Let me borrow a phrase, modified:
Fred Sanders
Oct 2015
#46
Even so, the low 40's is where many of the polls have found her support to be
HereSince1628
Oct 2015
#16
But their headline is written for its sensationalism - "Clinton down 10 points"!! HORROR!
George II
Oct 2015
#31
Another better headline: "Wild Swings in Clinton Popularity Are Within 9% 'Credibility Interval'*"
Fred Sanders
Oct 2015
#30
Congrats...first out of the gate with the "it is all fixed" refrain! And it is only October!
Fred Sanders
Oct 2015
#32
The conspiracy cards have not yet been played, but they have been shuffled and are on the table.
Fred Sanders
Oct 2015
#39
other than the historical revisionism the left have created around him, nothing.
wyldwolf
Oct 2015
#88
So, are you saying that Hillary legitimately won the nomination and it was taken from her?
lunamagica
Oct 2015
#65
Full-speed ahead, Hillary, damn the torpedoes and the icebergs, and the rock jetty to starboard.
leveymg
Oct 2015
#51