Democratic Primaries
Showing Original Post only (View all)538: What's Behind Elizabeth Warren's Rise In The Polls? [View all]
Sen. Elizabeth Warren has come a long way in the polls since the early days of her 2020 presidential campaign. Back in April, she was polling in the mid single digits nationally, but she now leads a number of national and early-state polls. And based on polls from September and August, Warren has expanded her support in a few overlapping directions making inroads with groups and categories of voters she was previously struggling with. The result is that she is now positioned as the leading alternative to former Vice President Joe Biden. Heres a look at where Warren has made inroads, so far:
Warren is appealing to more moderate voters now, too
Along with Sen. Bernie Sanders, Warren has long been a favorite among more liberal voters. And since June, shes actually been the top choice among very liberal voters, according to polling from Quinnipiac University. Now, however, theres evidence shes picking up support from more moderate voters, too. In the latest Quinnipiac national survey, Warren not only inched ahead of Biden in overall support from Democratic voters and Democratic-leaning independents, 27 percent to 25 percent, but she also beat him for the first time in Quinnipiacs polling among somewhat liberal voters, capturing 30 percent of that group to Bidens 19 percent. (She was also the clear second choice among moderate or conservative voters, although Biden still had a 10-point lead there.)
Earlier in September, I wrote that it was good for Warren that she was doing so well among very liberal voters, but that it probably wasnt enough to carve out a path to the nomination as the Democratic Party is roughly evenly split between liberals and moderates. But now, it seems as if Warrens appeal is broadening beyond her ideological base of very liberal supporters.
Quinnipiac isnt the only pollster who found this, either. Monmouth Universitys September national survey found that Warren led with 37 percent of the vote from liberal voters and was also in second place among moderate or conservative respondents with 20 percent support 10 points behind Bidens 30 percent. This marked an uptick of 4 percentage points among these moderate or conservative voters since Monmouths August poll. Additionally, the latest YouGov/Economist national poll pegged Warren as the first choice for 15 percent of moderates some distance behind Bidens 30 percent, though still in second place. But this was still about twice the level of Warrens support among moderates in late August.
For the past couple of months, Warren has been the leading candidate for college-educated voters, particularly white ones,1 but there are now signs shes garnering support from voters who arent college educated, too. This is important for Warren because a plurality of Democratic voters are white voters without a college degree, and they currently form a key constituency for Biden and Sanders. And in Quinnipiacs latest survey, Warren had 26 percent support among non-college whites, which put her in a near-tie with Biden at 27 percent and ahead of Sanderss 19 percent. By comparison, in Quinnipiacs late-August survey, Warren had 20 percent to Bidens 30 percent among non-college whites and was roughly tied with Sanders, who had 19 percent support among that group.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/whats-behind-warrens-rise-in-the-polls/
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden