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Showing Original Post only (View all)Math says to me that Sanders has a shot at winning the nomination [View all]
as I explained in a reply in another thread. Please note, in 2016, I said that Sanders was essentially mathematically eliminated after the first Super Tuesday, so I'm not promoting Sanders, but it's naive to think he does not have a chance.
If Bernie retains 75% of the vote he received last time around, he has a shot. Because in 2016, almost all the other votes went to Clinton. In 2020, there are potentially 10 or more candidates that could divide up the Clinton vote and the 25% of Sanders voters that defect to other candidates.
Clinton received a total of 16.85 million votes
Bernie received a total of 13.17 million votes
Total is 30.02 million votes
In 2020, Say Bernie gets 9.88 million, or 75% of what he received in 2016
That leaves 20.14 million for the remaining candidates
1) Joe Biden
2) Kamala Harris
3) Elizabeth Warren
4) Sherrod Brown
5) Cory Booker
6) Beto O'Rourke
7) Kirsten Gillebrand
8) Tulsi Gabbard
9) Pete Buttigieg
10) Julian Castro
11) Eric Garcetti
12) John Hickenlooper
and a few more that I'm probably missing
Right now, maybe Biden could get 50% of that remaining 20 million, but I doubt anybody else would come close if Biden decides not to run for president. Without Biden, the others will likely be fighting to get 20-30% in the early primaries and consider themselves to be in great shape.
Unless Warren (older progressives), O'Rourke (college students) and a few others can take more of Sanders' votes than just 25%, Bernie does have a path to the nomination.