2016 Postmortem

Clinton must win 33% of remaining delegates to reach 2383 magic number

Sanders must win 67% of remaining delegates to reach 2383 magic number

Yet here's how a 10-point win in New York could change the math:

In pledged delegates, Clinton would hold a lead of 269 delegates (with Washington delegates to still be allocated)

Clinton 1423
Sanders 1154
Clinton must win 41% of remaining pledged delegates to get a majority in pledged delegates

Sanders must win 59% of remaining pledged delegates to get a majority in pledged delegates

In overall delegates (pledged + super), Clinton would hold an overall lead of 691 delegates

Clinton 1884
Sanders 1193
Clinton must win 30% of remaining delegates to reach 2383 magic number

Sanders must win 70% of remaining delegates to reach 2383 magic number

So if Clinton wins New York by 10 percentage points, Sanders' magic-number percentage would go up to 70% -- and it would become 78% if Clinton wins the April 26 contests by a 55%-45% average. Sanders appeared on "Today" this morning, and he acknowledged the current public polls that show him trailing in New York. "Let's look at the real poll tomorrow," he said. "We have a message that is resonating all over this country."